bayesRatings

Rockies at Padres

MLB · Wednesday, Jul 29 · 3:10 PM CT · Petco Park · Final COL 1 – SD 3
← MLB / Jul 29

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
COL000000100160
SD00030000361
Team box
COL·SD
6
hits
6
0
home runs
0
2
walks
1
14
strikeouts
3
107
pitches thrown
134
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Brett SullivanCOL2-3001
Jackson MerrillSD1-3001
Willi CastroCOL1-4100
Mickey MoniakCOL1-4000
Tyler FreemanCOL1-3000
TJ RumfieldCOL1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Gabriel Hughes (L)COL5.06312
Kyle HartSD2.22013
Griffin Canning (W)SD3.01004
Mason Miller (S)SD1.00002

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SD +3
COL +3
123456789
largest lead: SD 3 · COL 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was COL 37%, SD 63% · Updated Jul 29

Expected margin
SD by 1.5
Expected score
SD 5.3 – 3.8 COL
Expected total
9.2
RockiesThe matchupPadres
+174Our fair odds−174
3.8Expected runs5.3
−0.46Power rating+0.04
4.8Runs / game4.2
5.8Allowed / game4.4
8.6Hits / game7.7
1.13Home runs / game1.10
3.1Walks drawn / game3.4
42−66Season record54−53
3−7Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
COL chance · SD chance
Our model fair36.5%63.5%
Kalshi38.6%65.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
COLColorado Rockies+17437%+15938.6%———
SDSan Diego Padres−17463%−19165.6%———
SpreadSD by 1.5
COLColorado Rockies+1.5our margin————
SDSan Diego Padres−1.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.2
Over9.2our total————
Under9.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

San Diego Padres by 1.5 expected
Colorado Rockies by 15 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 14 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 13 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 12 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 11 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 10 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 9 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 8 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 7 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 6 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 5 runs: 3%Colorado Rockies by 4 runs: 4%Colorado Rockies by 3 runs: 5%Colorado Rockies by 2 runs: 8%Colorado Rockies by 1 run: 11%San Diego Padres by 1 run: 15%San Diego Padres by 2 runs: 11%San Diego Padres by 3 runs: 8%San Diego Padres by 4 runs: 7%San Diego Padres by 5 runs: 6%San Diego Padres by 6 runs: 4%San Diego Padres by 7 runs: 3%San Diego Padres by 8 runs: 3%San Diego Padres by 9 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 10 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 11 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 12 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 13 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 14 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 15 runs: <1%
← COL wins bySD wins by →
San Diego Padres wins by 2 or more49%
San Diego Padres wins by 3 or more38%
Colorado Rockies wins by 2 or more25%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.2 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.527%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
COLGabriel Hughes SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 3.31 ERA, 18 Kstarted
SDKyle Hart RP · last 3 starts: 7.2 IP, 7.04 ERA, 4 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
COL·SD
Jul 28 at SD
last game
Jul 28 vs COL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
5
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 107+ games
COL·SD
−0.46
rating (0 = average)
+0.04
4.8
runs / game
4.2
5.8
runs allowed / game
4.4
42−66
season record
54−53
24−29
home record
28−24
18−37
away record
26−29
L3
streak
W4
3−7
last 10
6−4
8.6
hits / game
7.7
1.13
home runs / game
1.10
3.1
walks drawn / game
3.4
8.7
batter strikeouts / game
8.3
7.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.2
0.66
errors / game
0.40

Rating Trend

COL · SD · 123 days
Colorado RockiesSan Diego Padres
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SD 9−1
Jul 28at SDSD 8 − 7
Apr 23at COLSD 10 − 8
Apr 22at COLCOL 8 − 3
Apr 21at COLSD 1 − 0
Apr 12at SDSD 7 − 2
Apr 11at SDSD 9 − 5
Apr 10at SDSD 5 − 2
Apr 9at SDSD 7 − 3
Sep 14, 2025at SDSD 9 − 6
Sep 13, 2025at SDSD 11 − 3

COL · Last 10

3−7 · streak L3
Jul 28at SD7 − 8L
Jul 26at MIL2 − 11L
Jul 25at MIL5 − 8L
Jul 24at MIL5 − 2W
Jul 22vs WSH0 − 8L
Jul 21vs WSH8 − 7W
Jul 20vs WSH3 − 7L
Jul 19vs CIN6 − 9L
Jul 18vs CIN10 − 3W
Jul 17vs CIN2 − 7L

SD · Last 10

6−4 · streak W4
Jul 28vs COL8 − 7W
Jul 26at MIA5 − 3W
Jul 25at MIA7 − 2W
Jul 24at MIA4 − 2W
Jul 23at ATL5 − 6L
Jul 22at ATL6 − 7L
Jul 21at ATL8 − 3W
Jul 20at ATL2 − 3L
Jul 19at KC19 − 2W
Jul 18at KC1 − 6L