bayesRatings

Reds at Rockies

MLB · Saturday, Jul 18 · 2:10 PM CT · Coors Field · Final CIN 3 – COL 10
← MLB / Jul 18

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CIN001010100390
COL2420020010140
Team box
CIN·COL
9
hits
14
2
home runs
1
1
walks
3
6
strikeouts
8
133
pitches thrown
119
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
TJ RumfieldCOL4-5114
Jose TrevinoCIN3-4222
Mickey MoniakCOL2-5102
Jake McCarthyCOL2-5202
Cole CarriggCOL2-4301
Nathaniel LoweCIN1-2001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Rhett Lowder (L)CIN2.111802
Tomoyuki Sugano (W)COL6.16303

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
COL +8
CIN +8
123456789
largest lead: COL 8 · CIN 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CIN 59%, COL 41% · Updated Jul 18

Expected margin
CIN by 1.2
Expected score
CIN 6.1 – 4.9 COL
Expected total
11.0
RedsThe matchupRockies
−141Our fair odds+141
6.1Expected runs4.9
−0.05Power rating−0.45
4.2Runs / game4.7
4.8Allowed / game5.7
7.7Hits / game8.6
1.28Home runs / game1.12
3.7Walks drawn / game3.2
44−52Season record39−60
4−6Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CIN chance · COL chance
Our model fair58.5%41.5%
Kalshi53.7%50.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 2:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CINCincinnati Reds−14159%−11653.7%———
COLColorado Rockies+14141%−10350.7%———
SpreadCIN by 1.2
CINCincinnati Reds−1.2our margin————
COLColorado Rockies+1.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 11.0
Over11.0our total————
Under11.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Cincinnati Reds by 1.2 expected
Cincinnati Reds by 17 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 16 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 15 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 14 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 13 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 12 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 11 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 10 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 9 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 8 runs: 3%Cincinnati Reds by 7 runs: 3%Cincinnati Reds by 6 runs: 4%Cincinnati Reds by 5 runs: 5%Cincinnati Reds by 4 runs: 6%Cincinnati Reds by 3 runs: 7%Cincinnati Reds by 2 runs: 9%Cincinnati Reds by 1 run: 12%Colorado Rockies by 1 run: 12%Colorado Rockies by 2 runs: 8%Colorado Rockies by 3 runs: 6%Colorado Rockies by 4 runs: 4%Colorado Rockies by 5 runs: 3%Colorado Rockies by 6 runs: 3%Colorado Rockies by 7 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 8 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 9 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 10 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 11 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 12 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 13 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 14 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 15 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 16 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 17 runs: <1%
← CIN wins byCOL wins by →
Cincinnati Reds wins by 2 or more47%
Cincinnati Reds wins by 3 or more38%
Colorado Rockies wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

11.0 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 3%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 7%6 runs: 5%7 runs: 9%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 7%14 runs: 5%15 runs: 5%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: 1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%28 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 9.556%
Total over 11.541%
Total over 13.528%
Total from 10 to 1328%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CINRhett Lowder SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 7.47 ERA, 19 Kstarted
COLTomoyuki Sugano SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 7.88 ERA, 9 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CIN·COL
Jul 17 at COL
last game
Jul 17 vs CIN
0 days
days of rest
0 days
3
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 96+ games
CIN·COL
−0.05
rating (0 = average)
−0.45
4.2
runs / game
4.7
4.8
runs allowed / game
5.7
44−52
season record
39−60
22−28
home record
22−26
22−24
away record
17−34
W1
streak
L3
4−6
last 10
3−7
7.7
hits / game
8.6
1.28
home runs / game
1.12
3.7
walks drawn / game
3.2
9.4
batter strikeouts / game
8.7
8.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.1
0.53
errors / game
0.63

Rating Trend

CIN · COL · 112 days
Cincinnati RedsColorado Rockies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · COL 2−8
Jul 17at COLCIN 7 − 2
Apr 30at CINCIN 6 − 4
Apr 29at CINCOL 13 − 2
Apr 28at CINCIN 7 − 2
Jul 13, 2025at CINCIN 4 − 2
Jul 12, 2025at CINCIN 4 − 3
Jul 11, 2025at CINCOL 3 − 2
Apr 27, 2025at COLCIN 8 − 1
Apr 26, 2025at COLCIN 6 − 4
Apr 25, 2025at COLCIN 8 − 7

CIN · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Jul 17at COL7 − 2W
Jul 12vs CHC4 − 8L
Jul 11vs CHC3 − 5L
Jul 10vs CHC4 − 0W
Jul 9vs PHI0 − 1L
Jul 8vs PHI11 − 5W
Jul 7vs PHI1 − 4L
Jul 5vs BAL3 − 2W
Jul 4vs BAL5 − 8L
Jul 3vs BAL0 − 3L

COL · Last 10

3−7 · streak L3
Jul 17vs CIN2 − 7L
Jul 12at SF1 − 3L
Jul 11at SF2 − 4L
Jul 10at SF4 − 3W
Jul 9at SF2 − 8L
Jul 8at LAD3 − 4L
Jul 7at LAD4 − 3W
Jul 6at LAD7 − 8L
Jul 5vs SF7 − 6W
Jul 4vs SF4 − 6L