bayesRatings

Cubs at Reds

MLB · Sunday, Jul 12 · 12:40 PM CT · Great American Ball Park · Final CHC 8 – CIN 4
← MLB / Jul 12

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CHC200200400890
CIN004000000490
Team box
CHC·CIN
9
hits
9
1
home runs
1
5
walks
1
7
strikeouts
6
138
pitches thrown
157
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Alex BregmanCHC3-5214
Eugenio SuarezCIN1-4112
Michael BuschCHC2-4101
Kevin AlcantaraCHC1-2002
Spencer SteerCIN2-5001
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC1-3201
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Matthew Boyd (W)CHC6.16413
Jacob Webb (S)CHC0.20000
Andrew AbbottCIN4.04433
Chase Petty (L)CIN2.02102

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CIN +4
CHC +4
123456789
largest lead: CIN 2 · CHC 4lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHC 53%, CIN 47% · Updated Jul 12

Expected margin
CHC by 0.9
Expected score
CHC 4.9 – 4.0 CIN
Expected total
8.8
CubsThe matchupReds
−115Our fair odds+115
4.9Expected runs4.0
+0.14Power rating−0.06
5.0Runs / game4.2
4.5Allowed / game4.8
8.3Hits / game7.7
1.26Home runs / game1.26
4.3Walks drawn / game3.7
53−42Season record43−51
6−4Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHC chance · CIN chance
Our model fair53.5%46.5%
Kalshi57.7%47.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHCChicago Cubs−11553%−13757.7%———
CINCincinnati Reds+11547%+10947.7%———
SpreadCHC by 0.9
CHCChicago Cubs−0.9our margin————
CINCincinnati Reds+0.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.8
Over8.8our total————
Under8.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Chicago Cubs by 0.9 expected
Chicago Cubs by 14 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 13 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 12 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 11 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 10 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 9 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 8 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 7 runs: 3%Chicago Cubs by 6 runs: 4%Chicago Cubs by 5 runs: 5%Chicago Cubs by 4 runs: 7%Chicago Cubs by 3 runs: 8%Chicago Cubs by 2 runs: 11%Chicago Cubs by 1 run: 11%Cincinnati Reds by 1 run: 17%Cincinnati Reds by 2 runs: 9%Cincinnati Reds by 3 runs: 6%Cincinnati Reds by 4 runs: 4%Cincinnati Reds by 5 runs: 3%Cincinnati Reds by 6 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 7 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 8 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 9 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 10 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 11 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 12 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 13 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 14 runs: <1%
← CHC wins byCIN wins by →
Chicago Cubs wins by 2 or more44%
Chicago Cubs wins by 3 or more33%
Cincinnati Reds wins by 2 or more28%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.8 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.568%
Total over 8.548%
Total over 10.531%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CHCMatthew Boyd SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 1.72 ERA, 13 Kstarted
CINAndrew Abbott SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 4.41 ERA, 17 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHC·CIN
Jul 11 at CIN
last game
Jul 11 vs CHC
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
6th straight road game
home / road
9th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 94+ games
CHC·CIN
+0.14
rating (0 = average)
−0.06
5.0
runs / game
4.2
4.5
runs allowed / game
4.8
53−42
season record
43−51
27−19
home record
22−27
26−23
away record
21−24
W1
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
4−6
8.3
hits / game
7.7
1.26
home runs / game
1.26
4.3
walks drawn / game
3.7
8.4
batter strikeouts / game
9.5
7.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.1
0.39
errors / game
0.53

Rating Trend

CHC · CIN · 109 days
Chicago CubsCincinnati Reds
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CIN 5−5
Jul 11at CINCHC 5 − 3
Jul 10at CINCIN 4 − 0
May 7at CHCCHC 8 − 3
May 6at CHCCHC 7 − 6
May 5at CHCCHC 3 − 2
May 4at CHCCHC 5 − 4
Sep 21, 2025at CINCIN 1 − 0
Sep 20, 2025at CINCIN 6 − 3
Sep 19, 2025at CINCIN 7 − 4
Sep 18, 2025at CINCIN 1 − 0

CHC · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Jul 11at CIN5 − 3W
Jul 10at CIN0 − 4L
Jul 9at BAL2 − 3L
Jul 8at BAL9 − 7W
Jul 7at BAL5 − 2W
Jul 5vs STL6 − 4W
Jul 4vs STL0 − 3L
Jul 3vs STL1 − 17L
Jul 1vs SD23 − 3W
Jun 30vs SD9 − 7W

CIN · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Jul 11vs CHC3 − 5L
Jul 10vs CHC4 − 0W
Jul 9vs PHI0 − 1L
Jul 8vs PHI11 − 5W
Jul 7vs PHI1 − 4L
Jul 5vs BAL3 − 2W
Jul 4vs BAL5 − 8L
Jul 3vs BAL0 − 3L
Jul 2at MIL7 − 2W
Jul 1at MIL2 − 4L