bayesRatings

Cubs at Reds

MLB · Friday, Jul 10 · 6:10 PM CT · Great American Ball Park · Final CHC 0 – CIN 4
← MLB / Jul 10

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CHC000000000040
CIN000010304130
Team box
CHC·CIN
4
hits
13
0
home runs
2
1
walks
1
16
strikeouts
8
152
pitches thrown
120
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
JJ BledayCIN1-3112
Elly De La CruzCIN2-5211
Spencer SteerCIN3-4100
Sal StewartCIN2-3001
Seiya SuzukiCHC2-4000
Tyler StephensonCIN2-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Shota Imanaga (L)CHC5.07115
Hunter Greene (W)CIN7.030112

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CIN +4
CHC +4
123456789
largest lead: CIN 4 · CHC 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHC 54%, CIN 46% · Updated Jul 10

Expected margin
CHC by 0.9
Expected score
CHC 4.9 – 4.0 CIN
Expected total
8.9
CubsThe matchupReds
−116Our fair odds+116
4.9Expected runs4.0
+0.15Power rating−0.06
5.1Runs / game4.2
4.5Allowed / game4.8
8.3Hits / game7.6
1.27Home runs / game1.23
4.4Walks drawn / game3.7
52−41Season record42−50
7−3Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHC chance · CIN chance
Our model fair53.7%46.3%
Kalshi54.7%49.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHCChicago Cubs−11654%−12154.7%———
CINCincinnati Reds+11646%+10149.7%———
SpreadCHC by 0.9
CHCChicago Cubs−0.9our margin————
CINCincinnati Reds+0.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.9
Over8.9our total————
Under8.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Chicago Cubs by 0.9 expected
Chicago Cubs by 14 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 13 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 12 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 11 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 10 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 9 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 8 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 7 runs: 3%Chicago Cubs by 6 runs: 4%Chicago Cubs by 5 runs: 5%Chicago Cubs by 4 runs: 7%Chicago Cubs by 3 runs: 8%Chicago Cubs by 2 runs: 11%Chicago Cubs by 1 run: 11%Cincinnati Reds by 1 run: 17%Cincinnati Reds by 2 runs: 9%Cincinnati Reds by 3 runs: 6%Cincinnati Reds by 4 runs: 4%Cincinnati Reds by 5 runs: 3%Cincinnati Reds by 6 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 7 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 8 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 9 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 10 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 11 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 12 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 13 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 14 runs: <1%
← CHC wins byCIN wins by →
Chicago Cubs wins by 2 or more44%
Chicago Cubs wins by 3 or more34%
Cincinnati Reds wins by 2 or more28%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.568%
Total over 8.549%
Total over 10.532%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CHCShota Imanaga SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 4.41 ERA, 16 Kstarted
CINHunter Greene SP · last 3 starts: 12.1 IP, 10.95 ERA, 18 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHC·CIN
Jul 9 at BAL
last game
Jul 9 vs PHI
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
7th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 92+ games
CHC·CIN
+0.15
rating (0 = average)
−0.06
5.1
runs / game
4.2
4.5
runs allowed / game
4.8
52−41
season record
42−50
27−19
home record
21−26
25−22
away record
21−24
L1
streak
L1
7−3
last 10
3−7
8.3
hits / game
7.6
1.27
home runs / game
1.23
4.4
walks drawn / game
3.7
8.4
batter strikeouts / game
9.5
7.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.0
0.40
errors / game
0.54

Rating Trend

CHC · CIN · 107 days
Chicago CubsCincinnati Reds
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CIN 5−5
May 7at CHCCHC 8 − 3
May 6at CHCCHC 7 − 6
May 5at CHCCHC 3 − 2
May 4at CHCCHC 5 − 4
Sep 21, 2025at CINCIN 1 − 0
Sep 20, 2025at CINCIN 6 − 3
Sep 19, 2025at CINCIN 7 − 4
Sep 18, 2025at CINCIN 1 − 0
Aug 6, 2025at CHCCHC 6 − 1
Aug 5, 2025at CHCCIN 5 − 1

CHC · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Jul 9at BAL2 − 3L
Jul 8at BAL9 − 7W
Jul 7at BAL5 − 2W
Jul 5vs STL6 − 4W
Jul 4vs STL0 − 3L
Jul 3vs STL1 − 17L
Jul 1vs SD23 − 3W
Jun 30vs SD9 − 7W
Jun 29vs SD3 − 2W
Jun 28at MIL4 − 3W

CIN · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Jul 9vs PHI0 − 1L
Jul 8vs PHI11 − 5W
Jul 7vs PHI1 − 4L
Jul 5vs BAL3 − 2W
Jul 4vs BAL5 − 8L
Jul 3vs BAL0 − 3L
Jul 2at MIL7 − 2W
Jul 1at MIL2 − 4L
Jun 30at MIL2 − 7L
Jun 29at MIL3 − 5L