bayesRatings

Phillies at Reds

MLB · Wednesday, Jul 8 · 6:00 PM CT · Great American Ball Park · Final PHI 5 – CIN 11
← MLB / Jul 8

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
PHI020011001580
CIN0025040011111
Team box
PHI·CIN
8
hits
11
2
home runs
5
8
walks
7
7
strikeouts
10
175
pitches thrown
180
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Sal StewartCIN2-4223
Noelvi MarteCIN2-5114
JJ BledayCIN2-4212
Elly De La CruzCIN2-3312
J.T. RealmutoPHI1-3111
Kyle SchwarberPHI1-4111
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Alan Rangel (L)PHI3.13335
Chase Burns (W)CIN5.03362

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CIN +7
PHI +7
123456789
largest lead: CIN 7 · PHI 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PHI 53%, CIN 47% · Updated Jul 8

Expected margin
PHI by 0.5
Expected score
PHI 4.6 – 4.1 CIN
Expected total
8.7
PhilliesThe matchupReds
−113Our fair odds+113
4.6Expected runs4.1
+0.11Power rating−0.07
4.4Runs / game4.1
4.5Allowed / game4.8
8.0Hits / game7.6
1.32Home runs / game1.20
2.9Walks drawn / game3.7
51−41Season record41−49
5−5Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PHI chance · CIN chance
Our model fair53.0%47.0%
Kalshi45.7%59.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:00 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−11353%+11945.7%———
CINCincinnati Reds+11347%−14859.7%———
SpreadPHI by 0.5
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−0.5our margin————
CINCincinnati Reds+0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.7
Over8.7our total————
Under8.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Philadelphia Phillies by 0.5 expected
Philadelphia Phillies by 13 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 12 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 11 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 10 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 9 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 8 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 7 runs: 3%Philadelphia Phillies by 6 runs: 3%Philadelphia Phillies by 5 runs: 5%Philadelphia Phillies by 4 runs: 6%Philadelphia Phillies by 3 runs: 8%Philadelphia Phillies by 2 runs: 10%Philadelphia Phillies by 1 run: 13%Cincinnati Reds by 1 run: 16%Cincinnati Reds by 2 runs: 9%Cincinnati Reds by 3 runs: 6%Cincinnati Reds by 4 runs: 5%Cincinnati Reds by 5 runs: 4%Cincinnati Reds by 6 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 7 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 8 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 9 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 10 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 11 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 12 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 13 runs: <1%
← PHI wins byCIN wins by →
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 2 or more40%
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 3 or more30%
Cincinnati Reds wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.7 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.567%
Total over 8.547%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
PHIAlan Rangel RP · last 1 start: 4.0 IP, 0.00 ERA, 4 Kstarted
CINChase Burns SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 4.24 ERA, 21 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PHI·CIN
Jul 7 at CIN
last game
Jul 7 vs PHI
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 90+ games
PHI·CIN
+0.11
rating (0 = average)
−0.07
4.4
runs / game
4.1
4.5
runs allowed / game
4.8
51−41
season record
41−49
25−21
home record
20−25
26−20
away record
21−24
W1
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
3−7
8.0
hits / game
7.6
1.32
home runs / game
1.20
2.9
walks drawn / game
3.7
8.8
batter strikeouts / game
9.5
9.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.0
0.49
errors / game
0.54

Rating Trend

PHI · CIN · 105 days
Philadelphia PhilliesCincinnati Reds
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CIN 5−5
Jul 7at CINPHI 4 − 1
May 20at PHICIN 9 − 4
May 19at PHICIN 4 − 1
May 18at PHIPHI 5 − 4
Aug 13, 2025at CINCIN 8 − 0
Aug 12, 2025at CINCIN 6 − 1
Aug 11, 2025at CINPHI 4 − 1
Jul 6, 2025at PHIPHI 3 − 1
Jul 5, 2025at PHIPHI 5 − 1
Jul 4, 2025at PHICIN 9 − 6

PHI · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Jul 7at CIN4 − 1W
Jul 6at KC1 − 15L
Jul 5at KC2 − 5L
Jul 4at KC6 − 1W
Jul 2vs PIT1 − 6L
Jul 1vs PIT10 − 6W
Jun 30vs PIT8 − 0W
Jun 29vs PIT7 − 11L
Jun 28at NYM5 − 4W
Jun 27at NYM2 − 6L

CIN · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Jul 7vs PHI1 − 4L
Jul 5vs BAL3 − 2W
Jul 4vs BAL5 − 8L
Jul 3vs BAL0 − 3L
Jul 2at MIL7 − 2W
Jul 1at MIL2 − 4L
Jun 30at MIL2 − 7L
Jun 29at MIL3 − 5L
Jun 28at PIT4 − 9L
Jun 27at PIT9 − 7W