bayesRatings

Phillies at Reds

MLB · Tuesday, Jul 7 · 6:10 PM CT · Great American Ball Park · Final PHI 4 – CIN 1
← MLB / Jul 7

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
PHI003000010480
CIN000000100150
Team box
PHI·CIN
8
hits
5
1
home runs
1
2
walks
3
9
strikeouts
18
163
pitches thrown
166
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Kyle SchwarberPHI2-4112
Eugenio SuarezCIN1-4111
Trea TurnerPHI1-5101
Derek HillPHI2-3100
Edmundo SosaPHI1-3001
Justin CrawfordPHI2-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Zack Wheeler (W)PHI7.041014
Jhoan Duran (S)PHI1.01003
Andrew Abbott (L)CIN6.05308

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CIN +3
PHI +3
123456789
largest lead: CIN 0 · PHI 3lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PHI 53%, CIN 47% · Updated Jul 7

Expected margin
PHI by 0.5
Expected score
PHI 4.6 – 4.1 CIN
Expected total
8.7
PhilliesThe matchupReds
−111Our fair odds+111
4.6Expected runs4.1
+0.10Power rating−0.06
4.4Runs / game4.2
4.5Allowed / game4.9
8.0Hits / game7.6
1.32Home runs / game1.20
2.9Walks drawn / game3.7
50−41Season record41−48
5−5Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PHI chance · CIN chance
Our model fair52.6%47.4%
Kalshi62.7%41.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−11153%−16862.7%———
CINCincinnati Reds+11147%+14041.7%———
SpreadPHI by 0.5
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−0.5our margin————
CINCincinnati Reds+0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.7
Over8.7our total————
Under8.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Philadelphia Phillies by 0.5 expected
Philadelphia Phillies by 13 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 12 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 11 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 10 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 9 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 8 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 7 runs: 3%Philadelphia Phillies by 6 runs: 3%Philadelphia Phillies by 5 runs: 5%Philadelphia Phillies by 4 runs: 6%Philadelphia Phillies by 3 runs: 8%Philadelphia Phillies by 2 runs: 10%Philadelphia Phillies by 1 run: 12%Cincinnati Reds by 1 run: 16%Cincinnati Reds by 2 runs: 9%Cincinnati Reds by 3 runs: 6%Cincinnati Reds by 4 runs: 5%Cincinnati Reds by 5 runs: 4%Cincinnati Reds by 6 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 7 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 8 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 9 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 10 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 11 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 12 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 13 runs: <1%
← PHI wins byCIN wins by →
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 2 or more40%
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 3 or more30%
Cincinnati Reds wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.7 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.567%
Total over 8.547%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
PHIZack Wheeler SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 3.63 ERA, 22 Kstarted
CINAndrew Abbott SP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 3.52 ERA, 15 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PHI·CIN
Jul 6 at KC
last game
Jul 5 vs BAL
0 days
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 89+ games
PHI·CIN
+0.10
rating (0 = average)
−0.06
4.4
runs / game
4.2
4.5
runs allowed / game
4.9
50−41
season record
41−48
25−21
home record
20−24
25−20
away record
21−24
L2
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
4−6
8.0
hits / game
7.6
1.32
home runs / game
1.20
2.9
walks drawn / game
3.7
8.8
batter strikeouts / game
9.4
9.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.0
0.49
errors / game
0.55

Rating Trend

PHI · CIN · 104 days
Philadelphia PhilliesCincinnati Reds
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CIN 5−5
May 20at PHICIN 9 − 4
May 19at PHICIN 4 − 1
May 18at PHIPHI 5 − 4
Aug 13, 2025at CINCIN 8 − 0
Aug 12, 2025at CINCIN 6 − 1
Aug 11, 2025at CINPHI 4 − 1
Jul 6, 2025at PHIPHI 3 − 1
Jul 5, 2025at PHIPHI 5 − 1
Jul 4, 2025at PHICIN 9 − 6
Apr 25, 2024at CINPHI 5 − 0

PHI · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Jul 6at KC1 − 15L
Jul 5at KC2 − 5L
Jul 4at KC6 − 1W
Jul 2vs PIT1 − 6L
Jul 1vs PIT10 − 6W
Jun 30vs PIT8 − 0W
Jun 29vs PIT7 − 11L
Jun 28at NYM5 − 4W
Jun 27at NYM2 − 6L
Jun 26at NYM2 − 1W

CIN · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Jul 5vs BAL3 − 2W
Jul 4vs BAL5 − 8L
Jul 3vs BAL0 − 3L
Jul 2at MIL7 − 2W
Jul 1at MIL2 − 4L
Jun 30at MIL2 − 7L
Jun 29at MIL3 − 5L
Jun 28at PIT4 − 9L
Jun 27at PIT9 − 7W
Jun 26at PIT6 − 4W