bayesRatings

Phillies at Reds

MLB · Thursday, Jul 9 · 6:10 PM CT · Great American Ball Park · Final PHI 1 – CIN 0
← MLB / Jul 9

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
PHI000000010150
CIN000000000030
Team box
PHI·CIN
5
hits
3
0
home runs
0
1
walks
2
7
strikeouts
14
129
pitches thrown
115
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Brandon MarshPHI2-4000
Justin CrawfordPHI1-3001
Tyler StephensonCIN1-4000
TJ FriedlCIN1-3000
JJ BledayCIN1-4000
Kyle SchwarberPHI1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Jesus Luzardo (W)PHI7.020211
Jhoan Duran (S)PHI1.01002
Brady Singer (L)CIN7.14115

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CIN +3
PHI +3
123456789
largest lead: CIN 0 · PHI 1lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PHI 52%, CIN 48% · Updated Jul 9

Expected margin
PHI by 0.5
Expected score
PHI 4.7 – 4.2 CIN
Expected total
8.8
PhilliesThe matchupReds
−110Our fair odds+110
4.7Expected runs4.2
+0.10Power rating−0.06
4.4Runs / game4.2
4.5Allowed / game4.8
8.0Hits / game7.6
1.32Home runs / game1.24
3.0Walks drawn / game3.8
51−42Season record42−49
5−5Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PHI chance · CIN chance
Our model fair52.4%47.6%
Kalshi64.6%40.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−11052%−18364.6%———
CINCincinnati Reds+11048%+14640.7%———
SpreadPHI by 0.5
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−0.5our margin————
CINCincinnati Reds+0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.8
Over8.8our total————
Under8.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Philadelphia Phillies by 0.5 expected
Philadelphia Phillies by 13 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 12 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 11 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 10 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 9 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 8 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 7 runs: 3%Philadelphia Phillies by 6 runs: 3%Philadelphia Phillies by 5 runs: 5%Philadelphia Phillies by 4 runs: 6%Philadelphia Phillies by 3 runs: 8%Philadelphia Phillies by 2 runs: 10%Philadelphia Phillies by 1 run: 12%Cincinnati Reds by 1 run: 16%Cincinnati Reds by 2 runs: 9%Cincinnati Reds by 3 runs: 6%Cincinnati Reds by 4 runs: 5%Cincinnati Reds by 5 runs: 4%Cincinnati Reds by 6 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 7 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 8 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 9 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 10 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 11 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 12 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 13 runs: <1%
← PHI wins byCIN wins by →
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 2 or more40%
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 3 or more30%
Cincinnati Reds wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.8 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.568%
Total over 8.548%
Total over 10.531%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
PHIJesus Luzardo SP · last 3 starts: 17.2 IP, 1.53 ERA, 28 Kstarted
CINBrady Singer SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 3.86 ERA, 19 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PHI·CIN
Jul 8 at CIN
last game
Jul 8 vs PHI
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
6th straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 91+ games
PHI·CIN
+0.10
rating (0 = average)
−0.06
4.4
runs / game
4.2
4.5
runs allowed / game
4.8
51−42
season record
42−49
25−21
home record
21−25
26−21
away record
21−24
L1
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
3−7
8.0
hits / game
7.6
1.32
home runs / game
1.24
3.0
walks drawn / game
3.8
8.8
batter strikeouts / game
9.5
9.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.0
0.48
errors / game
0.55

Rating Trend

PHI · CIN · 106 days
Philadelphia PhilliesCincinnati Reds
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CIN 5−5
Jul 8at CINCIN 11 − 5
Jul 7at CINPHI 4 − 1
May 20at PHICIN 9 − 4
May 19at PHICIN 4 − 1
May 18at PHIPHI 5 − 4
Aug 13, 2025at CINCIN 8 − 0
Aug 12, 2025at CINCIN 6 − 1
Aug 11, 2025at CINPHI 4 − 1
Jul 6, 2025at PHIPHI 3 − 1
Jul 5, 2025at PHIPHI 5 − 1

PHI · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Jul 8at CIN5 − 11L
Jul 7at CIN4 − 1W
Jul 6at KC1 − 15L
Jul 5at KC2 − 5L
Jul 4at KC6 − 1W
Jul 2vs PIT1 − 6L
Jul 1vs PIT10 − 6W
Jun 30vs PIT8 − 0W
Jun 29vs PIT7 − 11L
Jun 28at NYM5 − 4W

CIN · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Jul 8vs PHI11 − 5W
Jul 7vs PHI1 − 4L
Jul 5vs BAL3 − 2W
Jul 4vs BAL5 − 8L
Jul 3vs BAL0 − 3L
Jul 2at MIL7 − 2W
Jul 1at MIL2 − 4L
Jun 30at MIL2 − 7L
Jun 29at MIL3 − 5L
Jun 28at PIT4 − 9L