bayesRatings

Cubs at Reds

MLB · Saturday, Jul 11 · 6:10 PM CT · Great American Ball Park · Final CHC 5 – CIN 3
← MLB / Jul 11

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CHC000012200590
CIN0002010003110
Team box
CHC·CIN
9
hits
11
2
home runs
3
5
walks
3
7
strikeouts
8
152
pitches thrown
141
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Carson KellyCHC2-4111
Alex BregmanCHC1-4112
Eugenio SuarezCIN2-3111
Nathaniel LoweCIN2-4111
JJ BledayCIN1-4111
Michael BuschCHC3-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Javier AssadCHC5.07204
Drew Pomeranz (W)CHC1.02110
Trent Thornton (S)CHC0.10000
Nick LodoloCIN5.05234
Julian Garcia (L)CIN1.01212

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CIN +3
CHC +3
123456789
largest lead: CIN 2 · CHC 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHC 53%, CIN 47% · Updated Jul 11

Expected margin
CHC by 0.8
Expected score
CHC 4.8 – 4.0 CIN
Expected total
8.8
CubsThe matchupReds
−113Our fair odds+113
4.8Expected runs4.0
+0.13Power rating−0.05
5.0Runs / game4.2
4.5Allowed / game4.8
8.3Hits / game7.6
1.26Home runs / game1.24
4.3Walks drawn / game3.7
52−42Season record43−50
6−4Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHC chance · CIN chance
Our model fair53.1%46.9%
Kalshi50.7%53.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHCChicago Cubs−11353%−10350.7%———
CINCincinnati Reds+11347%−11653.7%———
SpreadCHC by 0.8
CHCChicago Cubs−0.8our margin————
CINCincinnati Reds+0.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.8
Over8.8our total————
Under8.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Chicago Cubs by 0.8 expected
Chicago Cubs by 14 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 13 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 12 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 11 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 10 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 9 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 8 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 7 runs: 3%Chicago Cubs by 6 runs: 4%Chicago Cubs by 5 runs: 5%Chicago Cubs by 4 runs: 6%Chicago Cubs by 3 runs: 8%Chicago Cubs by 2 runs: 11%Chicago Cubs by 1 run: 11%Cincinnati Reds by 1 run: 17%Cincinnati Reds by 2 runs: 9%Cincinnati Reds by 3 runs: 6%Cincinnati Reds by 4 runs: 4%Cincinnati Reds by 5 runs: 3%Cincinnati Reds by 6 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 7 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 8 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 9 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 10 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 11 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 12 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 13 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 14 runs: <1%
← CHC wins byCIN wins by →
Chicago Cubs wins by 2 or more43%
Chicago Cubs wins by 3 or more33%
Cincinnati Reds wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.8 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.568%
Total over 8.548%
Total over 10.531%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CHCJavier Assad RP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 2.93 ERA, 8 Kstarted
CINNick Lodolo SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 0.60 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHC·CIN
Jul 10 at CIN
last game
Jul 10 vs CHC
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
8th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 93+ games
CHC·CIN
+0.13
rating (0 = average)
−0.05
5.0
runs / game
4.2
4.5
runs allowed / game
4.8
52−42
season record
43−50
27−19
home record
22−26
25−23
away record
21−24
L2
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
4−6
8.3
hits / game
7.6
1.26
home runs / game
1.24
4.3
walks drawn / game
3.7
8.4
batter strikeouts / game
9.5
7.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.1
0.39
errors / game
0.54

Rating Trend

CHC · CIN · 108 days
Chicago CubsCincinnati Reds
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CIN 5−5
Jul 10at CINCIN 4 − 0
May 7at CHCCHC 8 − 3
May 6at CHCCHC 7 − 6
May 5at CHCCHC 3 − 2
May 4at CHCCHC 5 − 4
Sep 21, 2025at CINCIN 1 − 0
Sep 20, 2025at CINCIN 6 − 3
Sep 19, 2025at CINCIN 7 − 4
Sep 18, 2025at CINCIN 1 − 0
Aug 6, 2025at CHCCHC 6 − 1

CHC · Last 10

6−4 · streak L2
Jul 10at CIN0 − 4L
Jul 9at BAL2 − 3L
Jul 8at BAL9 − 7W
Jul 7at BAL5 − 2W
Jul 5vs STL6 − 4W
Jul 4vs STL0 − 3L
Jul 3vs STL1 − 17L
Jul 1vs SD23 − 3W
Jun 30vs SD9 − 7W
Jun 29vs SD3 − 2W

CIN · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Jul 10vs CHC4 − 0W
Jul 9vs PHI0 − 1L
Jul 8vs PHI11 − 5W
Jul 7vs PHI1 − 4L
Jul 5vs BAL3 − 2W
Jul 4vs BAL5 − 8L
Jul 3vs BAL0 − 3L
Jul 2at MIL7 − 2W
Jul 1at MIL2 − 4L
Jun 30at MIL2 − 7L