bayesRatings

Rockies at Giants

MLB · Saturday, Jul 11 · 3:05 PM CT · Oracle Park · Final COL 2 – SF 4
← MLB / Jul 11

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
COL001000010261
SF00001300470
Team box
COL·SF
6
hits
7
1
home runs
1
3
walks
1
6
strikeouts
9
117
pitches thrown
129
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Casey SchmittSF1-4113
Kyle KarrosCOL1-4111
Mickey MoniakCOL2-4000
Luis ArraezSF2-4100
Jesus RodriguezSF1-3001
Brett SullivanCOL1-3100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Kyle Freeland (L)COL6.06409
Tyler Mahle (W)SF7.05134
JT Brubaker (S)SF2.01102

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SF +3
COL +3
123456789
largest lead: SF 3 · COL 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was COL 41%, SF 59% · Updated Jul 11

Expected margin
SF by 0.9
Expected score
SF 5.3 – 4.4 COL
Expected total
9.7
RockiesThe matchupGiants
+145Our fair odds−145
4.4Expected runs5.3
−0.42Power rating−0.10
4.8Runs / game4.1
5.7Allowed / game4.9
8.7Hits / game8.8
1.12Home runs / game1.12
3.2Walks drawn / game2.5
39−57Season record39−55
6−4Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
COL chance · SF chance
Our model fair40.9%59.1%
Kalshi44.7%59.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
COLColorado Rockies+14541%+12444.7%———
SFSan Francisco Giants−14559%−14859.7%———
SpreadSF by 0.9
COLColorado Rockies+0.9our margin————
SFSan Francisco Giants−0.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.7
Over9.7our total————
Under9.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

San Francisco Giants by 0.9 expected
Colorado Rockies by 15 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 14 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 13 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 12 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 11 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 10 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 9 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 8 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 7 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 6 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 5 runs: 3%Colorado Rockies by 4 runs: 5%Colorado Rockies by 3 runs: 6%Colorado Rockies by 2 runs: 8%Colorado Rockies by 1 run: 11%San Francisco Giants by 1 run: 15%San Francisco Giants by 2 runs: 10%San Francisco Giants by 3 runs: 8%San Francisco Giants by 4 runs: 6%San Francisco Giants by 5 runs: 5%San Francisco Giants by 6 runs: 4%San Francisco Giants by 7 runs: 3%San Francisco Giants by 8 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 9 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 10 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 11 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 12 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 13 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 14 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 15 runs: <1%
← COL wins bySF wins by →
San Francisco Giants wins by 2 or more44%
San Francisco Giants wins by 3 or more34%
Colorado Rockies wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.7 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.563%
Total over 9.546%
Total over 11.531%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
COLKyle Freeland SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 7.88 ERA, 13 Kstarted
SFTyler Mahle SP · last 3 starts: 14.1 IP, 4.40 ERA, 12 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
COL·SF
Jul 10 at SF
last game
Jul 10 vs COL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
6th straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 94+ games
COL·SF
−0.42
rating (0 = average)
−0.10
4.8
runs / game
4.1
5.7
runs allowed / game
4.9
39−57
season record
39−55
22−25
home record
20−25
17−32
away record
19−30
W1
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
4−6
8.7
hits / game
8.8
1.12
home runs / game
1.12
3.2
walks drawn / game
2.5
8.8
batter strikeouts / game
7.8
7.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.7
0.61
errors / game
0.69

Rating Trend

COL · SF · 108 days
Colorado RockiesSan Francisco Giants
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SF 5−5
Jul 10at SFCOL 4 − 3
Jul 9at SFSF 8 − 2
Jul 5at COLCOL 7 − 6
Jul 4at COLSF 6 − 4
Jul 3at COLCOL 15 − 3
May 31at COLSF 19 − 6
May 30at COLCOL 8 − 3
May 29at COLCOL 8 − 6
Sep 28, 2025at SFSF 4 − 0
Sep 27, 2025at SFSF 4 − 3

COL · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Jul 10at SF4 − 3W
Jul 9at SF2 − 8L
Jul 8at LAD3 − 4L
Jul 7at LAD4 − 3W
Jul 6at LAD7 − 8L
Jul 5vs SF7 − 6W
Jul 4vs SF4 − 6L
Jul 3vs SF15 − 3W
Jul 2vs MIA14 − 4W
Jul 1vs MIA6 − 3W

SF · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Jul 10vs COL3 − 4L
Jul 9vs COL8 − 2W
Jul 8vs TOR0 − 10L
Jul 7vs TOR3 − 9L
Jul 6vs TOR10 − 1W
Jul 5at COL6 − 7L
Jul 4at COL6 − 4W
Jul 3at COL3 − 15L
Jul 1at ARI6 − 4W
Jun 30at ARI2 − 8L