bayesRatings

Blue Jays at Giants

MLB · Wednesday, Jul 8 · 2:45 PM CT · Oracle Park · Final TOR 10 – SF 0
← MLB / Jul 8

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TOR50000002310110
SF000000000013
Team box
TOR·SF
11
hits
1
3
home runs
0
4
walks
3
3
strikeouts
11
122
pitches thrown
165
0
errors
3
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Kazuma OkamotoTOR2-5214
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.TOR1-5112
George SpringerTOR1-4211
Daulton VarshoTOR2-4201
Nathan LukesTOR2-4200
Andres GimenezTOR1-4001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Dylan Cease (W)TOR8.010311
Logan Webb (L)SF7.05522

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SF +10
TOR +10
123456789
largest lead: SF 0 · TOR 10lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TOR 51%, SF 49% · Updated Jul 8

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
TOR 4.4 – 4.3 SF
Expected total
8.7
Blue JaysThe matchupGiants
−104Our fair odds+104
4.4Expected runs4.3
+0.00Power rating−0.09
4.0Runs / game4.1
4.5Allowed / game4.8
8.2Hits / game8.8
0.98Home runs / game1.11
2.7Walks drawn / game2.4
43−49Season record38−53
4−6Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TOR chance · SF chance
Our model fair50.9%49.1%
Kalshi56.7%47.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 2:45 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TORToronto Blue Jays−10451%−13156.7%———
SFSan Francisco Giants+10449%+10947.7%———
Spreadabout even
TORToronto Blue Jays−0.1our margin————
SFSan Francisco Giants+0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.7
Over8.7our total————
Under8.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Toronto Blue Jays by 12 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 11 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 10 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 9 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 8 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 7 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 6 runs: 3%Toronto Blue Jays by 5 runs: 4%Toronto Blue Jays by 4 runs: 6%Toronto Blue Jays by 3 runs: 7%Toronto Blue Jays by 2 runs: 10%Toronto Blue Jays by 1 run: 14%San Francisco Giants by 1 run: 14%San Francisco Giants by 2 runs: 10%San Francisco Giants by 3 runs: 7%San Francisco Giants by 4 runs: 5%San Francisco Giants by 5 runs: 4%San Francisco Giants by 6 runs: 3%San Francisco Giants by 7 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 8 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 9 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 10 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 11 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 12 runs: <1%
← TOR wins bySF wins by →
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 2 or more37%
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 3 or more27%
San Francisco Giants wins by 2 or more35%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.7 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.567%
Total over 8.547%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TORDylan Cease SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 3.12 ERA, 27 Kstarted
SFLogan Webb SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 4.50 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TOR·SF
Jul 7 at SF
last game
Jul 7 vs TOR
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
6th straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 91+ games
TOR·SF
+0.00
rating (0 = average)
−0.09
4.0
runs / game
4.1
4.5
runs allowed / game
4.8
43−49
season record
38−53
24−25
home record
19−23
19−24
away record
19−30
W1
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
5−5
8.2
hits / game
8.8
0.98
home runs / game
1.11
2.7
walks drawn / game
2.4
7.4
batter strikeouts / game
7.8
8.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.7
0.65
errors / game
0.68

Rating Trend

TOR · SF · 105 days
Toronto Blue JaysSan Francisco Giants
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SF 2−8
Jul 7at SFTOR 9 − 3
Jul 6at SFSF 10 − 1
Jul 20, 2025at TORTOR 8 − 6
Jul 19, 2025at TORTOR 6 − 3
Jul 18, 2025at TORTOR 4 − 0
Jul 11, 2024at SFTOR 5 − 3
Jul 10, 2024at SFTOR 10 − 6
Jul 9, 2024at SFSF 4 − 3
Jun 29, 2023at TORTOR 2 − 1
Jun 28, 2023at TORTOR 6 − 1

TOR · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Jul 7at SF9 − 3W
Jul 6at SF1 − 10L
Jul 5at SEA0 − 4L
Jul 4at SEA0 − 11L
Jul 3at SEA2 − 0W
Jul 1vs NYM9 − 3W
Jun 30vs NYM0 − 3L
Jun 29vs NYM2 − 1W
Jun 28vs TEX2 − 3L
Jun 27vs TEX4 − 7L

SF · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Jul 7vs TOR3 − 9L
Jul 6vs TOR10 − 1W
Jul 5at COL6 − 7L
Jul 4at COL6 − 4W
Jul 3at COL3 − 15L
Jul 1at ARI6 − 4W
Jun 30at ARI2 − 8L
Jun 29at ARI4 − 5L
Jun 28vs ATL3 − 2W
Jun 27vs ATL5 − 0W