bayesRatings

Giants at Rockies

MLB · Sunday, Jul 5 · 3:00 PM CT · Coors Field · Final SF 6 – COL 7
← MLB / Jul 5

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SF0201210006101
COL211000037111
Team box
SF·COL
10
hits
11
4
home runs
1
4
walks
0
12
strikeouts
9
122
pitches thrown
180
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Drew GilbertSF4-4113
Rafael DeversSF2-5222
Kyle KarrosCOL1-4113
Casey SchmittSF1-4111
Hunter GoodmanCOL2-4101
TJ RumfieldCOL3-4200
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Tyler MahleSF4.18305
Dylan Smith (L)SF1.02301
Tanner GordonCOL5.06527
Victor Vodnik (W)COL1.01012
Jordan Romano (S)COL1.01002

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
COL +3
SF +3
123456789
largest lead: COL 2 · SF 2lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SF 57%, COL 43% · Updated Jul 5

Expected margin
SF by 1.2
Expected score
SF 6.2 – 5.1 COL
Expected total
11.3
GiantsThe matchupRockies
−134Our fair odds+134
6.2Expected runs5.1
−0.09Power rating−0.45
4.1Runs / game4.8
4.8Allowed / game5.7
8.8Hits / game8.8
1.08Home runs / game1.14
2.4Walks drawn / game3.2
37−51Season record36−54
5−5Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SF chance · COL chance
Our model fair57.4%42.6%
Kalshi54.7%49.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:00 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SFSan Francisco Giants−13457%−12154.7%———
COLColorado Rockies+13443%+10149.7%———
SpreadSF by 1.2
SFSan Francisco Giants−1.2our margin————
COLColorado Rockies+1.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 11.3
Over11.3our total————
Under11.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

San Francisco Giants by 1.2 expected
San Francisco Giants by 17 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 16 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 15 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 14 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 13 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 12 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 11 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 10 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 9 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 8 runs: 3%San Francisco Giants by 7 runs: 4%San Francisco Giants by 6 runs: 4%San Francisco Giants by 5 runs: 5%San Francisco Giants by 4 runs: 6%San Francisco Giants by 3 runs: 7%San Francisco Giants by 2 runs: 9%San Francisco Giants by 1 run: 10%Colorado Rockies by 1 run: 12%Colorado Rockies by 2 runs: 8%Colorado Rockies by 3 runs: 6%Colorado Rockies by 4 runs: 4%Colorado Rockies by 5 runs: 3%Colorado Rockies by 6 runs: 3%Colorado Rockies by 7 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 8 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 9 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 10 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 11 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 12 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 13 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 14 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 15 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 16 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 17 runs: <1%
← SF wins byCOL wins by →
San Francisco Giants wins by 2 or more47%
San Francisco Giants wins by 3 or more38%
Colorado Rockies wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

11.3 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 3%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 6%6 runs: 5%7 runs: 9%8 runs: 6%9 runs: 9%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 7%14 runs: 5%15 runs: 5%16 runs: 4%17 runs: 4%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 2%21 runs: 2%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: 1%25 runs: 1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%28 runs: <1%29 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 9.558%
Total over 11.543%
Total over 13.530%
Total from 10 to 1328%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SFTyler Mahle SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 4.20 ERA, 10 Kstarted
COLTanner Gordon SP · last 3 starts: 13.0 IP, 6.92 ERA, 9 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SF·COL
Jul 4 at COL
last game
Jul 4 vs SF
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
6th straight road game
home / road
7th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 88+ games
SF·COL
−0.09
rating (0 = average)
−0.45
4.1
runs / game
4.8
4.8
runs allowed / game
5.7
37−51
season record
36−54
18−22
home record
21−25
19−29
away record
15−29
W1
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
5−5
8.8
hits / game
8.8
1.08
home runs / game
1.14
2.4
walks drawn / game
3.2
7.7
batter strikeouts / game
8.7
7.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.0
0.68
errors / game
0.60

Rating Trend

SF · COL · 102 days
San Francisco GiantsColorado Rockies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · COL 3−7
Jul 4at COLSF 6 − 4
Jul 3at COLCOL 15 − 3
May 31at COLSF 19 − 6
May 30at COLCOL 8 − 3
May 29at COLCOL 8 − 6
Sep 28, 2025at SFSF 4 − 0
Sep 27, 2025at SFSF 4 − 3
Sep 26, 2025at SFSF 6 − 3
Sep 3, 2025at COLSF 10 − 8
Sep 2, 2025at COLSF 7 − 4

SF · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Jul 4at COL6 − 4W
Jul 3at COL3 − 15L
Jul 1at ARI6 − 4W
Jun 30at ARI2 − 8L
Jun 29at ARI4 − 5L
Jun 28vs ATL3 − 2W
Jun 27vs ATL5 − 0W
Jun 26vs ATL1 − 3L
Jun 25vs ATH6 − 9L
Jun 24vs ATH2 − 1W

COL · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Jul 4vs SF4 − 6L
Jul 3vs SF15 − 3W
Jul 2vs MIA14 − 4W
Jul 1vs MIA6 − 3W
Jun 30vs MIA3 − 14L
Jun 29vs MIA7 − 10L
Jun 28at MIN2 − 3L
Jun 27at MIN8 − 5W
Jun 26at MIN8 − 9L
Jun 24vs BOS8 − 6W