bayesRatings

Giants at Rockies

MLB · Friday, Jul 3 · 7:10 PM CT · Coors Field · Final SF 3 – COL 15
← MLB / Jul 3

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SF001101000380
COL3220700115182
Team box
SF·COL
8
hits
18
1
home runs
3
1
walks
7
10
strikeouts
6
191
pitches thrown
141
0
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jake McCarthyCOL4-5226
Ezequiel TovarCOL3-4213
Cole CarriggCOL2-4203
Rafael DeversSF2-4111
Kyle KarrosCOL3-4300
Casey SchmittSF2-4001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Logan Webb (L)SF3.011722
Ryan Feltner (W)COL6.06209
Gabriel Hughes (S)COL3.02011

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
COL +12
SF +12
123456789
largest lead: COL 12 · SF 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SF 58%, COL 42% · Updated Jul 3

Expected margin
SF by 1.3
Expected score
SF 6.2 – 4.9 COL
Expected total
11.2
GiantsThe matchupRockies
−139Our fair odds+139
6.2Expected runs4.9
−0.07Power rating−0.47
4.1Runs / game4.7
4.7Allowed / game5.8
8.7Hits / game8.7
1.08Home runs / game1.12
2.4Walks drawn / game3.1
36−50Season record35−53
5−5Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SF chance · COL chance
Our model fair58.1%41.9%
Kalshi59.7%44.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SFSan Francisco Giants−13958%−14859.7%———
COLColorado Rockies+13942%+12444.7%———
SpreadSF by 1.3
SFSan Francisco Giants−1.3our margin————
COLColorado Rockies+1.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 11.2
Over11.2our total————
Under11.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

San Francisco Giants by 1.3 expected
San Francisco Giants by 17 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 16 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 15 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 14 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 13 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 12 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 11 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 10 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 9 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 8 runs: 3%San Francisco Giants by 7 runs: 4%San Francisco Giants by 6 runs: 4%San Francisco Giants by 5 runs: 5%San Francisco Giants by 4 runs: 6%San Francisco Giants by 3 runs: 7%San Francisco Giants by 2 runs: 9%San Francisco Giants by 1 run: 11%Colorado Rockies by 1 run: 12%Colorado Rockies by 2 runs: 8%Colorado Rockies by 3 runs: 6%Colorado Rockies by 4 runs: 4%Colorado Rockies by 5 runs: 3%Colorado Rockies by 6 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 7 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 8 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 9 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 10 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 11 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 12 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 13 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 14 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 15 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 16 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 17 runs: <1%
← SF wins byCOL wins by →
San Francisco Giants wins by 2 or more48%
San Francisco Giants wins by 3 or more39%
Colorado Rockies wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

11.2 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 3%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 6%6 runs: 5%7 runs: 9%8 runs: 6%9 runs: 9%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 7%14 runs: 5%15 runs: 5%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 4%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 2%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: 1%25 runs: 1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%28 runs: <1%29 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 9.557%
Total over 11.542%
Total over 13.529%
Total from 10 to 1328%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SFLogan Webb SP · last 3 starts: 23.0 IP, 0.78 ERA, 18 Kstarted
COLRyan Feltner SP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 2.70 ERA, 9 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SF·COL
Jul 1 at ARI
last game
Jul 2 vs MIA
1 day
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
4th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 86+ games
SF·COL
−0.07
rating (0 = average)
−0.47
4.1
runs / game
4.7
4.7
runs allowed / game
5.8
36−50
season record
35−53
18−22
home record
20−24
18−28
away record
15−29
W1
streak
W2
5−5
last 10
5−5
8.7
hits / game
8.7
1.08
home runs / game
1.12
2.4
walks drawn / game
3.1
7.7
batter strikeouts / game
8.8
7.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.0
0.70
errors / game
0.59

Rating Trend

SF · COL · 100 days
San Francisco GiantsColorado Rockies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · COL 3−7
May 31at COLSF 19 − 6
May 30at COLCOL 8 − 3
May 29at COLCOL 8 − 6
Sep 28, 2025at SFSF 4 − 0
Sep 27, 2025at SFSF 4 − 3
Sep 26, 2025at SFSF 6 − 3
Sep 3, 2025at COLSF 10 − 8
Sep 2, 2025at COLSF 7 − 4
Sep 1, 2025at COLSF 8 − 2
Jun 12, 2025at COLCOL 8 − 7

SF · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Jul 1at ARI6 − 4W
Jun 30at ARI2 − 8L
Jun 29at ARI4 − 5L
Jun 28vs ATL3 − 2W
Jun 27vs ATL5 − 0W
Jun 26vs ATL1 − 3L
Jun 25vs ATH6 − 9L
Jun 24vs ATH2 − 1W
Jun 23vs ATH3 − 1W
Jun 21at MIA1 − 2L

COL · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Jul 2vs MIA14 − 4W
Jul 1vs MIA6 − 3W
Jun 30vs MIA3 − 14L
Jun 29vs MIA7 − 10L
Jun 28at MIN2 − 3L
Jun 27at MIN8 − 5W
Jun 26at MIN8 − 9L
Jun 24vs BOS8 − 6W
Jun 23vs BOS2 − 5L
Jun 22vs BOS3 − 2W