bayesRatings

Blue Jays at Giants

MLB · Monday, Jul 6 · 8:45 PM CT · Oracle Park · Final TOR 1 – SF 10
← MLB / Jul 6

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TOR000001000133
SF100115021081
Team box
TOR·SF
3
hits
8
1
home runs
2
2
walks
6
7
strikeouts
8
122
pitches thrown
118
3
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Heliot RamosSF3-5325
Victor BericotoSF2-4202
Kazuma OkamotoTOR1-4111
Luis ArraezSF1-4000
Jung Hoo LeeSF1-3100
Bryce EldridgeSF1-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Kevin Gausman (L)TOR5.15458
Landen Roupp (W)SF8.03125

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SF +9
TOR +9
123456789
largest lead: SF 9 · TOR 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TOR 51%, SF 49% · Updated Jul 6

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
TOR 4.4 – 4.2 SF
Expected total
8.7
Blue JaysThe matchupGiants
−104Our fair odds+104
4.4Expected runs4.2
+0.01Power rating−0.09
4.0Runs / game4.1
4.4Allowed / game4.8
8.2Hits / game8.8
0.98Home runs / game1.11
2.7Walks drawn / game2.4
42−48Season record37−52
3−7Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TOR chance · SF chance
Our model fair51.1%48.9%
Kalshi53.7%51.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:45 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TORToronto Blue Jays−10451%−11653.7%———
SFSan Francisco Giants+10449%−10751.8%———
Spreadabout even
TORToronto Blue Jays−0.2our margin————
SFSan Francisco Giants+0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.7
Over8.7our total————
Under8.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Toronto Blue Jays by 13 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 12 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 11 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 10 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 9 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 8 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 7 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 6 runs: 3%Toronto Blue Jays by 5 runs: 4%Toronto Blue Jays by 4 runs: 6%Toronto Blue Jays by 3 runs: 7%Toronto Blue Jays by 2 runs: 10%Toronto Blue Jays by 1 run: 14%San Francisco Giants by 1 run: 15%San Francisco Giants by 2 runs: 10%San Francisco Giants by 3 runs: 7%San Francisco Giants by 4 runs: 5%San Francisco Giants by 5 runs: 4%San Francisco Giants by 6 runs: 3%San Francisco Giants by 7 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 8 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 9 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 10 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 11 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 12 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 13 runs: <1%
← TOR wins bySF wins by →
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 2 or more38%
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 3 or more27%
San Francisco Giants wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.7 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.567%
Total over 8.547%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TORKevin Gausman SP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 9.00 ERA, 14 Kstarted
SFLanden Roupp SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 6.14 ERA, 17 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TOR·SF
Jul 5 at SEA
last game
Jul 5 at COL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 89+ games
TOR·SF
+0.01
rating (0 = average)
−0.09
4.0
runs / game
4.1
4.4
runs allowed / game
4.8
42−48
season record
37−52
24−25
home record
18−22
18−23
away record
19−30
L2
streak
L1
3−7
last 10
4−6
8.2
hits / game
8.8
0.98
home runs / game
1.11
2.7
walks drawn / game
2.4
7.4
batter strikeouts / game
7.8
8.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.7
0.63
errors / game
0.69

Rating Trend

TOR · SF · 103 days
Toronto Blue JaysSan Francisco Giants
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · SF 2−7
Jul 20, 2025at TORTOR 8 − 6
Jul 19, 2025at TORTOR 6 − 3
Jul 18, 2025at TORTOR 4 − 0
Jul 11, 2024at SFTOR 5 − 3
Jul 10, 2024at SFTOR 10 − 6
Jul 9, 2024at SFSF 4 − 3
Jun 29, 2023at TORTOR 2 − 1
Jun 28, 2023at TORTOR 6 − 1
Jun 27, 2023at TORSF 3 − 0

TOR · Last 10

3−7 · streak L2
Jul 5at SEA0 − 4L
Jul 4at SEA0 − 11L
Jul 3at SEA2 − 0W
Jul 1vs NYM9 − 3W
Jun 30vs NYM0 − 3L
Jun 29vs NYM2 − 1W
Jun 28vs TEX2 − 3L
Jun 27vs TEX4 − 7L
Jun 26vs TEX4 − 5L
Jun 25vs TEX5 − 6L

SF · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Jul 5at COL6 − 7L
Jul 4at COL6 − 4W
Jul 3at COL3 − 15L
Jul 1at ARI6 − 4W
Jun 30at ARI2 − 8L
Jun 29at ARI4 − 5L
Jun 28vs ATL3 − 2W
Jun 27vs ATL5 − 0W
Jun 26vs ATL1 − 3L
Jun 25vs ATH6 − 9L