bayesRatings

Rockies at Dodgers

MLB · Monday, Jul 6 · 9:10 PM CT · Dodger Stadium · Final COL 7 – LAD 8
← MLB / Jul 6

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234567891011THE
COL01001100310791
LAD002400000118130
Team box
COL·LAD
9
hits
13
1
home runs
1
8
walks
2
7
strikeouts
5
137
pitches thrown
187
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Shohei OhtaniLAD3-4114
Cole CarriggCOL3-5302
Ezequiel TovarCOL1-3212
Dalton RushingLAD3-5201
Jake McCarthyCOL1-4002
Max MuncyLAD2-4101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Kyle FreelandCOL5.09602
Jimmy Herget (L)COL1.01010
Eric LauerLAD6.06323
Edgardo Henriquez (W)LAD2.00020

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAD +5
COL +5
1234567891011
largest lead: LAD 5 · COL 1lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was COL 29%, LAD 71% · Updated Jul 6

Expected margin
LAD by 2.3
Expected score
LAD 6.2 – 3.9 COL
Expected total
10.0
RockiesThe matchupDodgers
+240Our fair odds−240
3.9Expected runs6.2
−0.43Power rating+0.40
4.9Runs / game5.3
5.7Allowed / game3.5
8.8Hits / game8.9
1.14Home runs / game1.34
3.1Walks drawn / game4.1
37−54Season record59−32
5−5Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
COL chance · LAD chance
Our model fair29.4%70.6%
Kalshi32.5%71.5%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 9:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
COLColorado Rockies+24029%+20832.5%———
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−24071%−25171.5%———
SpreadLAD by 2.3
COLColorado Rockies+2.3our margin————
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−2.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 10.0
Over10.0our total————
Under10.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Dodgers by 2.3 expected
Colorado Rockies by 17 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 16 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 15 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 14 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 13 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 12 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 11 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 10 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 9 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 8 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 7 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 6 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 5 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 4 runs: 3%Colorado Rockies by 3 runs: 5%Colorado Rockies by 2 runs: 7%Colorado Rockies by 1 run: 8%Los Angeles Dodgers by 1 run: 16%Los Angeles Dodgers by 2 runs: 10%Los Angeles Dodgers by 3 runs: 8%Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 runs: 7%Los Angeles Dodgers by 5 runs: 6%Los Angeles Dodgers by 6 runs: 5%Los Angeles Dodgers by 7 runs: 4%Los Angeles Dodgers by 8 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 9 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 10 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 11 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 12 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 13 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 14 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 15 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 16 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 17 runs: <1%
← COL wins byLAD wins by →
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 2 or more55%
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 3 or more45%
Colorado Rockies wins by 2 or more21%
Decided by one run24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

10.0 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 4%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 8%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 10%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 8.558%
Total over 10.541%
Total over 12.527%
Total from 9 to 1231%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
COLKyle Freeland SP · last 3 starts: 18.1 IP, 4.91 ERA, 19 Kstarted
LADEric Lauer SP · last 3 starts: 17.2 IP, 4.08 ERA, 11 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
COL·LAD
Jul 5 vs SF
last game
Jul 5 vs SD
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
road after a home game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 91+ games
COL·LAD
−0.43
rating (0 = average)
+0.40
4.9
runs / game
5.3
5.7
runs allowed / game
3.5
37−54
season record
59−32
22−25
home record
29−15
15−29
away record
30−17
W1
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
7−3
8.8
hits / game
8.9
1.14
home runs / game
1.34
3.1
walks drawn / game
4.1
8.7
batter strikeouts / game
7.9
7.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.9
0.60
errors / game
0.29

Rating Trend

COL · LAD · 103 days
Colorado RockiesLos Angeles Dodgers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAD 8−2
May 27at LADLAD 4 − 1
May 26at LADLAD 15 − 6
May 25at LADLAD 5 − 3
Apr 20at COLLAD 12 − 3
Apr 19at COLCOL 9 − 6
Apr 18at COLCOL 4 − 3
Apr 17at COLLAD 7 − 1
Sep 10, 2025at LADLAD 9 − 0
Sep 9, 2025at LADLAD 7 − 2
Sep 8, 2025at LADLAD 3 − 1

COL · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Jul 5vs SF7 − 6W
Jul 4vs SF4 − 6L
Jul 3vs SF15 − 3W
Jul 2vs MIA14 − 4W
Jul 1vs MIA6 − 3W
Jun 30vs MIA3 − 14L
Jun 29vs MIA7 − 10L
Jun 28at MIN2 − 3L
Jun 27at MIN8 − 5W
Jun 26at MIN8 − 9L

LAD · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Jul 5vs SD2 − 5L
Jul 4vs SD3 − 0W
Jul 3vs SD4 − 3W
Jul 2vs SD12 − 7W
Jul 1at ATH1 − 7L
Jun 30at ATH9 − 3W
Jun 29at ATH9 − 4W
Jun 28at SD4 − 2W
Jun 27at SD15 − 3W
Jun 26at SD1 − 7L