bayesRatings

Rockies at Dodgers

MLB · Tuesday, Jul 7 · 9:10 PM CT · Dodger Stadium · Final COL 4 – LAD 3
← MLB / Jul 7

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
COL000001030482
LAD100011000382
Team box
COL·LAD
8
hits
8
0
home runs
1
3
walks
4
11
strikeouts
7
142
pitches thrown
131
2
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Alex FreelandLAD3-4101
Shohei OhtaniLAD1-4111
Mickey MoniakCOL2-4000
Jake McCarthyCOL0-2002
Cole CarriggCOL2-4200
Freddie FreemanLAD2-5000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Michael LorenzenCOL6.06235
Juan Mejia (W)COL2.01001
Jordan Romano (S)COL1.01011
Justin WrobleskiLAD7.06129
Will Klein (L)LAD0.11010

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAD +3
COL +3
123456789
largest lead: LAD 2 · COL 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was COL 29%, LAD 71% · Updated Jul 7

Expected margin
LAD by 2.2
Expected score
LAD 6.2 – 3.9 COL
Expected total
10.1
RockiesThe matchupDodgers
+241Our fair odds−241
3.9Expected runs6.2
−0.43Power rating+0.40
4.9Runs / game5.3
5.8Allowed / game3.6
8.8Hits / game8.9
1.14Home runs / game1.34
3.2Walks drawn / game4.1
37−55Season record60−32
5−5Last 108−2

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
COL chance · LAD chance
Our model fair29.3%70.7%
Kalshi28.4%75.3%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 9:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
COLColorado Rockies+24129%+25228.4%———
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−24171%−30675.3%———
SpreadLAD by 2.2
COLColorado Rockies+2.2our margin————
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−2.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 10.1
Over10.1our total————
Under10.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Dodgers by 2.2 expected
Colorado Rockies by 17 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 16 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 15 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 14 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 13 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 12 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 11 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 10 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 9 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 8 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 7 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 6 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 5 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 4 runs: 3%Colorado Rockies by 3 runs: 5%Colorado Rockies by 2 runs: 7%Colorado Rockies by 1 run: 8%Los Angeles Dodgers by 1 run: 15%Los Angeles Dodgers by 2 runs: 10%Los Angeles Dodgers by 3 runs: 8%Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 runs: 7%Los Angeles Dodgers by 5 runs: 6%Los Angeles Dodgers by 6 runs: 5%Los Angeles Dodgers by 7 runs: 4%Los Angeles Dodgers by 8 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 9 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 10 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 11 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 12 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 13 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 14 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 15 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 16 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 17 runs: <1%
← COL wins byLAD wins by →
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 2 or more54%
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 3 or more44%
Colorado Rockies wins by 2 or more22%
Decided by one run24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

10.1 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 4%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 8%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 10%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 8.559%
Total over 10.542%
Total over 12.528%
Total from 9 to 1231%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
COLMichael Lorenzen SP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 4.70 ERA, 7 Kstarted
LADJustin Wrobleski SP · last 3 starts: 20.0 IP, 2.25 ERA, 19 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
COL·LAD
Jul 6 at LAD
last game
Jul 6 vs COL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
2nd straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 92+ games
COL·LAD
−0.43
rating (0 = average)
+0.40
4.9
runs / game
5.3
5.8
runs allowed / game
3.6
37−55
season record
60−32
22−25
home record
30−15
15−30
away record
30−17
L1
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
8−2
8.8
hits / game
8.9
1.14
home runs / game
1.34
3.2
walks drawn / game
4.1
8.7
batter strikeouts / game
7.8
7.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.9
0.61
errors / game
0.28

Rating Trend

COL · LAD · 104 days
Colorado RockiesLos Angeles Dodgers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAD 8−2
Jul 6at LADLAD 8 − 7
May 27at LADLAD 4 − 1
May 26at LADLAD 15 − 6
May 25at LADLAD 5 − 3
Apr 20at COLLAD 12 − 3
Apr 19at COLCOL 9 − 6
Apr 18at COLCOL 4 − 3
Apr 17at COLLAD 7 − 1
Sep 10, 2025at LADLAD 9 − 0
Sep 9, 2025at LADLAD 7 − 2

COL · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Jul 6at LAD7 − 8L
Jul 5vs SF7 − 6W
Jul 4vs SF4 − 6L
Jul 3vs SF15 − 3W
Jul 2vs MIA14 − 4W
Jul 1vs MIA6 − 3W
Jun 30vs MIA3 − 14L
Jun 29vs MIA7 − 10L
Jun 28at MIN2 − 3L
Jun 27at MIN8 − 5W

LAD · Last 10

8−2 · streak W1
Jul 6vs COL8 − 7W
Jul 5vs SD2 − 5L
Jul 4vs SD3 − 0W
Jul 3vs SD4 − 3W
Jul 2vs SD12 − 7W
Jul 1at ATH1 − 7L
Jun 30at ATH9 − 3W
Jun 29at ATH9 − 4W
Jun 28at SD4 − 2W
Jun 27at SD15 − 3W