bayesRatings

Rockies at Giants

MLB · Thursday, Jul 9 · 8:45 PM CT · Oracle Park · Final COL 2 – SF 8
← MLB / Jul 9

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
COL000200000250
SF100120048130
Team box
COL·SF
5
hits
13
1
home runs
3
4
walks
6
9
strikeouts
9
178
pitches thrown
129
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Casey SchmittSF2-4212
Willi CastroCOL1-4112
Willy AdamesSF1-5112
Bryce EldridgeSF2-3111
Rafael DeversSF2-4102
Luis ArraezSF2-4101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Ryan Feltner (L)COL4.16443
Carson Whisenhunt (W)SF5.23244

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SF +6
COL +6
123456789
largest lead: SF 6 · COL 1lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was COL 41%, SF 59% · Updated Jul 9

Expected margin
SF by 0.8
Expected score
SF 5.2 – 4.4 COL
Expected total
9.7
RockiesThe matchupGiants
+144Our fair odds−144
4.4Expected runs5.2
−0.41Power rating−0.11
4.9Runs / game4.1
5.7Allowed / game4.9
8.7Hits / game8.7
1.14Home runs / game1.10
3.2Walks drawn / game2.4
38−56Season record38−54
5−5Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
COL chance · SF chance
Our model fair41.0%59.0%
Kalshi48.7%55.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:45 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
COLColorado Rockies+14441%+10548.7%———
SFSan Francisco Giants−14459%−12655.7%———
SpreadSF by 0.8
COLColorado Rockies+0.8our margin————
SFSan Francisco Giants−0.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.7
Over9.7our total————
Under9.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

San Francisco Giants by 0.8 expected
Colorado Rockies by 15 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 14 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 13 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 12 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 11 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 10 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 9 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 8 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 7 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 6 runs: 3%Colorado Rockies by 5 runs: 4%Colorado Rockies by 4 runs: 5%Colorado Rockies by 3 runs: 6%Colorado Rockies by 2 runs: 9%Colorado Rockies by 1 run: 10%San Francisco Giants by 1 run: 16%San Francisco Giants by 2 runs: 10%San Francisco Giants by 3 runs: 8%San Francisco Giants by 4 runs: 6%San Francisco Giants by 5 runs: 5%San Francisco Giants by 6 runs: 4%San Francisco Giants by 7 runs: 3%San Francisco Giants by 8 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 9 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 10 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 11 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 12 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 13 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 14 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 15 runs: <1%
← COL wins bySF wins by →
San Francisco Giants wins by 2 or more43%
San Francisco Giants wins by 3 or more33%
Colorado Rockies wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.7 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.563%
Total over 9.546%
Total over 11.531%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
COLRyan Feltner SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 2.50 ERA, 11 Kstarted
SFCarson Whisenhunt SP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 4.50 ERA, 6 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
COL·SF
Jul 8 at LAD
last game
Jul 8 vs TOR
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 92+ games
COL·SF
−0.41
rating (0 = average)
−0.11
4.9
runs / game
4.1
5.7
runs allowed / game
4.9
38−56
season record
38−54
22−25
home record
19−24
16−31
away record
19−30
L1
streak
L2
5−5
last 10
4−6
8.7
hits / game
8.7
1.14
home runs / game
1.10
3.2
walks drawn / game
2.4
8.7
batter strikeouts / game
7.8
7.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.6
0.62
errors / game
0.71

Rating Trend

COL · SF · 106 days
Colorado RockiesSan Francisco Giants
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SF 6−4
Jul 5at COLCOL 7 − 6
Jul 4at COLSF 6 − 4
Jul 3at COLCOL 15 − 3
May 31at COLSF 19 − 6
May 30at COLCOL 8 − 3
May 29at COLCOL 8 − 6
Sep 28, 2025at SFSF 4 − 0
Sep 27, 2025at SFSF 4 − 3
Sep 26, 2025at SFSF 6 − 3
Sep 3, 2025at COLSF 10 − 8

COL · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Jul 8at LAD3 − 4L
Jul 7at LAD4 − 3W
Jul 6at LAD7 − 8L
Jul 5vs SF7 − 6W
Jul 4vs SF4 − 6L
Jul 3vs SF15 − 3W
Jul 2vs MIA14 − 4W
Jul 1vs MIA6 − 3W
Jun 30vs MIA3 − 14L
Jun 29vs MIA7 − 10L

SF · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Jul 8vs TOR0 − 10L
Jul 7vs TOR3 − 9L
Jul 6vs TOR10 − 1W
Jul 5at COL6 − 7L
Jul 4at COL6 − 4W
Jul 3at COL3 − 15L
Jul 1at ARI6 − 4W
Jun 30at ARI2 − 8L
Jun 29at ARI4 − 5L
Jun 28vs ATL3 − 2W