bayesRatings

Reds at Rockies

MLB · Friday, Jul 17 · 7:40 PM CT · Coors Field · Final CIN 7 – COL 2
← MLB / Jul 17

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CIN1000031117111
COL000010100261
Team box
CIN·COL
11
hits
6
4
home runs
1
3
walks
0
9
strikeouts
8
126
pitches thrown
138
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Spencer SteerCIN2-4223
Elly De La CruzCIN4-5211
Eugenio SuarezCIN2-4111
Willi CastroCOL2-4111
Sal StewartCIN1-3002
Troy JohnstonCOL1-3001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Brady Singer (W)CIN7.04206
Gabriel Hughes (L)COL5.15226

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
COL +5
CIN +5
123456789
largest lead: COL 0 · CIN 5lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CIN 58%, COL 42% · Updated Jul 17

Expected margin
CIN by 1.1
Expected score
CIN 6.1 – 5.0 COL
Expected total
11.1
RedsThe matchupRockies
−138Our fair odds+138
6.1Expected runs5.0
−0.06Power rating−0.45
4.2Runs / game4.8
4.8Allowed / game5.7
7.7Hits / game8.6
1.25Home runs / game1.12
3.7Walks drawn / game3.2
43−52Season record39−59
4−6Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CIN chance · COL chance
Our model fair58.0%42.0%
Kalshi50.7%53.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CINCincinnati Reds−13858%−10350.7%———
COLColorado Rockies+13842%−11653.7%———
SpreadCIN by 1.1
CINCincinnati Reds−1.1our margin————
COLColorado Rockies+1.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 11.1
Over11.1our total————
Under11.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Cincinnati Reds by 1.1 expected
Cincinnati Reds by 17 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 16 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 15 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 14 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 13 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 12 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 11 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 10 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 9 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 8 runs: 3%Cincinnati Reds by 7 runs: 3%Cincinnati Reds by 6 runs: 4%Cincinnati Reds by 5 runs: 5%Cincinnati Reds by 4 runs: 6%Cincinnati Reds by 3 runs: 7%Cincinnati Reds by 2 runs: 9%Cincinnati Reds by 1 run: 12%Colorado Rockies by 1 run: 11%Colorado Rockies by 2 runs: 8%Colorado Rockies by 3 runs: 6%Colorado Rockies by 4 runs: 5%Colorado Rockies by 5 runs: 4%Colorado Rockies by 6 runs: 3%Colorado Rockies by 7 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 8 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 9 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 10 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 11 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 12 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 13 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 14 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 15 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 16 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 17 runs: <1%
← CIN wins byCOL wins by →
Cincinnati Reds wins by 2 or more46%
Cincinnati Reds wins by 3 or more37%
Colorado Rockies wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

11.1 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 3%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 6%6 runs: 5%7 runs: 9%8 runs: 6%9 runs: 9%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 7%14 runs: 5%15 runs: 5%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 4%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: 1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%28 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 9.557%
Total over 11.541%
Total over 13.528%
Total from 10 to 1328%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CINBrady Singer SP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 4.32 ERA, 17 Kstarted
COLGabriel Hughes SP · last 1 start: 6.0 IP, 4.50 ERA, 7 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CIN·COL
Jul 12 vs CHC
last game
Jul 12 at SF
4 days
days of rest
4 days
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 95+ games
CIN·COL
−0.06
rating (0 = average)
−0.45
4.2
runs / game
4.8
4.8
runs allowed / game
5.7
43−52
season record
39−59
22−28
home record
22−25
21−24
away record
17−34
L2
streak
L2
4−6
last 10
4−6
7.7
hits / game
8.6
1.25
home runs / game
1.12
3.7
walks drawn / game
3.2
9.5
batter strikeouts / game
8.7
8.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.0
0.53
errors / game
0.62

Rating Trend

CIN · COL · 111 days
Cincinnati RedsColorado Rockies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · COL 2−8
Apr 30at CINCIN 6 − 4
Apr 29at CINCOL 13 − 2
Apr 28at CINCIN 7 − 2
Jul 13, 2025at CINCIN 4 − 2
Jul 12, 2025at CINCIN 4 − 3
Jul 11, 2025at CINCOL 3 − 2
Apr 27, 2025at COLCIN 8 − 1
Apr 26, 2025at COLCIN 6 − 4
Apr 25, 2025at COLCIN 8 − 7
Jul 11, 2024at CINCIN 8 − 1

CIN · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Jul 12vs CHC4 − 8L
Jul 11vs CHC3 − 5L
Jul 10vs CHC4 − 0W
Jul 9vs PHI0 − 1L
Jul 8vs PHI11 − 5W
Jul 7vs PHI1 − 4L
Jul 5vs BAL3 − 2W
Jul 4vs BAL5 − 8L
Jul 3vs BAL0 − 3L
Jul 2at MIL7 − 2W

COL · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Jul 12at SF1 − 3L
Jul 11at SF2 − 4L
Jul 10at SF4 − 3W
Jul 9at SF2 − 8L
Jul 8at LAD3 − 4L
Jul 7at LAD4 − 3W
Jul 6at LAD7 − 8L
Jul 5vs SF7 − 6W
Jul 4vs SF4 − 6L
Jul 3vs SF15 − 3W