bayesRatings

Nationals at Rockies

MLB · Monday, Jul 20 · 7:40 PM CT · Coors Field · Final WSH 7 – COL 3
← MLB / Jul 20

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
WSH3000012017122
COL003000000360
Team box
WSH·COL
12
hits
6
3
home runs
0
2
walks
5
7
strikeouts
3
121
pitches thrown
140
2
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Andres ChaparroWSH1-3113
Jacob YoungWSH3-4111
CJ AbramsWSH1-5112
Willi CastroCOL1-3003
Curtis MeadWSH3-5100
Jake McCarthyCOL2-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Andrew AlvarezWSH4.16332
Riley Cornelio (W)WSH1.20020
Tom Cosgrove (S)WSH2.00000
Kyle Freeland (L)COL6.07424

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
COL +4
WSH +4
123456789
largest lead: COL 0 · WSH 4lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was WSH 58%, COL 42% · Updated Jul 20

Expected margin
WSH by 1.6
Expected score
WSH 7.0 – 5.4 COL
Expected total
12.3
NationalsThe matchupRockies
−137Our fair odds+137
7.0Expected runs5.4
−0.06Power rating−0.43
5.5Runs / game4.8
5.3Allowed / game5.7
8.6Hits / game8.7
1.44Home runs / game1.15
3.5Walks drawn / game3.1
50−50Season record40−61
4−6Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
WSH chance · COL chance
Our model fair57.7%42.3%
Kalshi56.7%47.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
WSHWashington Nationals−13758%−13156.7%———
COLColorado Rockies+13742%+10947.7%———
SpreadWSH by 1.6
WSHWashington Nationals−1.6our margin————
COLColorado Rockies+1.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 12.3
Over12.3our total————
Under12.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Washington Nationals by 1.6 expected
Washington Nationals by 19 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 18 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 17 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 16 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 15 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 14 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 13 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 12 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 11 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 10 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 9 runs: 3%Washington Nationals by 8 runs: 3%Washington Nationals by 7 runs: 4%Washington Nationals by 6 runs: 5%Washington Nationals by 5 runs: 5%Washington Nationals by 4 runs: 6%Washington Nationals by 3 runs: 7%Washington Nationals by 2 runs: 9%Washington Nationals by 1 run: 8%Colorado Rockies by 1 run: 13%Colorado Rockies by 2 runs: 7%Colorado Rockies by 3 runs: 5%Colorado Rockies by 4 runs: 4%Colorado Rockies by 5 runs: 3%Colorado Rockies by 6 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 7 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 8 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 9 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 10 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 11 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 12 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 13 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 14 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 15 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 16 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 17 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 18 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 19 runs: <1%
← WSH wins byCOL wins by →
Washington Nationals wins by 2 or more50%
Washington Nationals wins by 3 or more42%
Colorado Rockies wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run21%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

12.3 expected
2 runs: 1%3 runs: 2%4 runs: 2%5 runs: 5%6 runs: 4%7 runs: 7%8 runs: 6%9 runs: 8%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 7%14 runs: 5%15 runs: 6%16 runs: 4%17 runs: 4%18 runs: 3%19 runs: 3%20 runs: 2%21 runs: 2%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: 1%25 runs: 1%26 runs: 1%27 runs: <1%28 runs: <1%29 runs: <1%30 runs: <1%31 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 10.558%
Total over 12.544%
Total over 14.531%
Total from 11 to 1427%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
WSHAndrew Alvarez SP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 5.14 ERA, 14 Kstarted
COLKyle Freeland SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 6.75 ERA, 18 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
WSH·COL
Jul 19 at ATH
last game
Jul 19 vs CIN
0 days
days of rest
0 days
3
games in last 7 days
3
4th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 100+ games
WSH·COL
−0.06
rating (0 = average)
−0.43
5.5
runs / game
4.8
5.3
runs allowed / game
5.7
50−50
season record
40−61
20−31
home record
23−27
30−19
away record
17−34
W1
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
3−7
8.6
hits / game
8.7
1.44
home runs / game
1.15
3.5
walks drawn / game
3.1
8.3
batter strikeouts / game
8.7
8.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.0
0.76
errors / game
0.61

Rating Trend

WSH · COL · 114 days
Washington NationalsColorado Rockies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · COL 5−5
Jun 19, 2025at WSHWSH 4 − 3
Jun 18, 2025at WSHCOL 3 − 1
Jun 17, 2025at WSHCOL 10 − 6
Jun 16, 2025at WSHCOL 6 − 4
Apr 20, 2025at COLCOL 3 − 1
Apr 20, 2025at COLWSH 3 − 2
Apr 19, 2025at COLWSH 12 − 11
Aug 22, 2024at WSHWSH 8 − 3
Aug 21, 2024at WSHWSH 6 − 1
Aug 20, 2024at WSHCOL 3 − 1

WSH · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Jul 19at ATH5 − 2W
Jul 18at ATH1 − 15L
Jul 17at ATH23 − 4W
Jul 12vs NYY3 − 5L
Jul 11vs NYY2 − 4L
Jul 10vs NYY3 − 5L
Jul 8vs HOU8 − 2W
Jul 7vs HOU3 − 6L
Jul 6vs HOU12 − 11W
Jul 5vs PIT5 − 11L

COL · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Jul 19vs CIN6 − 9L
Jul 18vs CIN10 − 3W
Jul 17vs CIN2 − 7L
Jul 12at SF1 − 3L
Jul 11at SF2 − 4L
Jul 10at SF4 − 3W
Jul 9at SF2 − 8L
Jul 8at LAD3 − 4L
Jul 7at LAD4 − 3W
Jul 6at LAD7 − 8L