bayesRatings

Nationals at Athletics

MLB · Saturday, Jul 18 · 9:05 PM CT · Sutter Health Park · Final WSH 1 – ATH 15
← MLB / Jul 18

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
WSH000000001141
ATH5100026115130
Team box
WSH·ATH
4
hits
13
0
home runs
3
4
walks
7
11
strikeouts
6
152
pitches thrown
136
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jacob WilsonATH3-6312
Carlos CortesATH2-4212
Tyler SoderstromATH2-4312
Jeff McNeilATH3-5202
Shea LangeliersATH1-3003
Joshua Kuroda-GrauerATH1-4202
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Zack Littell (L)WSH6.08844
J.T. Ginn (W)ATH6.11037

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATH +15
WSH +15
123456789
largest lead: ATH 15 · WSH 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was WSH 54%, ATH 46% · Updated Jul 18

Expected margin
WSH by 1.3
Expected score
WSH 6.4 – 5.0 ATH
Expected total
11.4
NationalsThe matchupAthletics
−116Our fair odds+116
6.4Expected runs5.0
−0.05Power rating−0.25
5.5Runs / game4.4
5.2Allowed / game5.7
8.7Hits / game8.3
1.45Home runs / game1.23
3.4Walks drawn / game3.5
49−49Season record41−56
4−6Last 100−10

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
WSH chance · ATH chance
Our model fair53.7%46.3%
Kalshi52.7%51.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 9:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
WSHWashington Nationals−11654%−11252.7%———
ATHAthletics+11646%−10751.8%———
SpreadWSH by 1.3
WSHWashington Nationals−1.3our margin————
ATHAthletics+1.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 11.4
Over11.4our total————
Under11.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Washington Nationals by 1.3 expected
Washington Nationals by 17 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 16 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 15 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 14 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 13 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 12 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 11 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 10 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 9 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 8 runs: 3%Washington Nationals by 7 runs: 4%Washington Nationals by 6 runs: 4%Washington Nationals by 5 runs: 5%Washington Nationals by 4 runs: 6%Washington Nationals by 3 runs: 7%Washington Nationals by 2 runs: 9%Washington Nationals by 1 run: 9%Athletics by 1 run: 14%Athletics by 2 runs: 7%Athletics by 3 runs: 5%Athletics by 4 runs: 4%Athletics by 5 runs: 3%Athletics by 6 runs: 3%Athletics by 7 runs: 2%Athletics by 8 runs: 1%Athletics by 9 runs: 1%Athletics by 10 runs: 1%Athletics by 11 runs: <1%Athletics by 12 runs: <1%Athletics by 13 runs: <1%Athletics by 14 runs: <1%Athletics by 15 runs: <1%Athletics by 16 runs: <1%Athletics by 17 runs: <1%
← WSH wins byATH wins by →
Washington Nationals wins by 2 or more48%
Washington Nationals wins by 3 or more39%
Athletics wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

11.4 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 3%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 6%6 runs: 5%7 runs: 8%8 runs: 6%9 runs: 9%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 7%14 runs: 5%15 runs: 5%16 runs: 4%17 runs: 4%18 runs: 3%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 2%21 runs: 2%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: 1%25 runs: 1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%28 runs: <1%29 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 9.559%
Total over 11.544%
Total over 13.530%
Total from 10 to 1328%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
WSHZack Littell SP · last 3 starts: 11.2 IP, 8.49 ERA, 5 Kstarted
ATHJ.T. Ginn SP · last 3 starts: 14.1 IP, 6.91 ERA, 15 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
WSH·ATH
Jul 17 at ATH
last game
Jul 17 vs WSH
0 days
days of rest
0 days
3
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 97+ games
WSH·ATH
−0.05
rating (0 = average)
−0.25
5.5
runs / game
4.4
5.2
runs allowed / game
5.7
49−49
season record
41−56
20−31
home record
19−29
29−18
away record
22−27
W1
streak
L10
4−6
last 10
0−10
8.7
hits / game
8.3
1.45
home runs / game
1.23
3.4
walks drawn / game
3.5
8.3
batter strikeouts / game
8.8
8.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.5
0.77
errors / game
0.42

Rating Trend

WSH · ATH · 112 days
Washington NationalsAthletics
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATH 4−6
Jul 17at ATHWSH 23 − 4
Aug 7, 2025at WSHATH 6 − 0
Aug 6, 2025at WSHWSH 2 − 1
Aug 5, 2025at WSHATH 16 − 7
Apr 14, 2024at ATHATH 7 − 6
Apr 13, 2024at ATHWSH 3 − 1
Apr 12, 2024at ATHATH 2 − 1
Aug 13, 2023at WSHWSH 8 − 7
Aug 12, 2023at WSHWSH 3 − 2
Aug 11, 2023at WSHWSH 8 − 2

WSH · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Jul 17at ATH23 − 4W
Jul 12vs NYY3 − 5L
Jul 11vs NYY2 − 4L
Jul 10vs NYY3 − 5L
Jul 8vs HOU8 − 2W
Jul 7vs HOU3 − 6L
Jul 6vs HOU12 − 11W
Jul 5vs PIT5 − 11L
Jul 4vs PIT1 − 7L
Jul 3vs PIT9 − 5W

ATH · Last 10

0−10 · streak L10
Jul 17vs WSH4 − 23L
Jul 12at CHW1 − 9L
Jul 11at CHW0 − 1L
Jul 10at CHW1 − 14L
Jul 9at DET1 − 4L
Jul 8at DET1 − 6L
Jul 7at DET2 − 6L
Jul 5vs MIA8 − 9L
Jul 4vs MIA2 − 7L
Jul 3vs MIA5 − 12L