bayesRatings

Athletics at White Sox

MLB · Saturday, Jul 11 · 1:10 PM CT · Rate Field · Final ATH 0 – CHW 1
← MLB / Jul 11

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ATH000000000040
CHW00000100151
Team box
ATH·CHW
4
hits
5
0
home runs
0
4
walks
2
6
strikeouts
11
109
pitches thrown
130
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Chase MeidrothCHW2-3001
Jacob WilsonATH2-4000
Joshua Kuroda-GrauerATH2-4000
Luisangel AcunaCHW2-3000
Randal GrichukCHW1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Gage Jump (L)ATH5.25127
Bryan HudsonCHW1.00000
Erick Fedde (W)CHW4.02013
Grant Taylor (S)CHW1.20012

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHW +3
ATH +3
123456789
largest lead: CHW 1 · ATH 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATH 45%, CHW 55% · Updated Jul 11

Expected margin
CHW by 0.7
Expected score
CHW 5.0 – 4.4 ATH
Expected total
9.4
AthleticsThe matchupWhite Sox
+121Our fair odds−121
4.4Expected runs5.0
−0.19Power rating−0.05
4.5Runs / game4.8
5.5Allowed / game4.5
8.4Hits / game8.1
1.23Home runs / game1.37
3.6Walks drawn / game3.4
41−53Season record48−45
1−9Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATH chance · CHW chance
Our model fair45.2%54.8%
Kalshi47.7%56.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 1:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATHAthletics+12145%+10947.7%———
CHWChicago White Sox−12155%−13156.7%———
SpreadCHW by 0.7
ATHAthletics+0.7our margin————
CHWChicago White Sox−0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.4
Over9.4our total————
Under9.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Chicago White Sox by 0.7 expected
Athletics by 14 runs: <1%Athletics by 13 runs: <1%Athletics by 12 runs: <1%Athletics by 11 runs: <1%Athletics by 10 runs: 1%Athletics by 9 runs: 1%Athletics by 8 runs: 1%Athletics by 7 runs: 2%Athletics by 6 runs: 3%Athletics by 5 runs: 4%Athletics by 4 runs: 5%Athletics by 3 runs: 6%Athletics by 2 runs: 9%Athletics by 1 run: 14%Chicago White Sox by 1 run: 13%Chicago White Sox by 2 runs: 10%Chicago White Sox by 3 runs: 8%Chicago White Sox by 4 runs: 6%Chicago White Sox by 5 runs: 5%Chicago White Sox by 6 runs: 4%Chicago White Sox by 7 runs: 3%Chicago White Sox by 8 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 9 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 10 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 11 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 12 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 13 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 14 runs: <1%
← ATH wins byCHW wins by →
Chicago White Sox wins by 2 or more42%
Chicago White Sox wins by 3 or more32%
Athletics wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.4 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.561%
Total over 9.543%
Total over 11.528%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ATHGage Jump SP · last 3 starts: 12.2 IP, 7.11 ERA, 15 Kstarted
CHWBryan Hudson RP · last 3 starts: 4.0 IP, 2.25 ERA, 3 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATH·CHW
Jul 10 at CHW
last game
Jul 10 vs ATH
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 93+ games
ATH·CHW
−0.19
rating (0 = average)
−0.05
4.5
runs / game
4.8
5.5
runs allowed / game
4.5
41−53
season record
48−45
19−28
home record
29−17
22−25
away record
19−28
L7
streak
W1
1−9
last 10
4−6
8.4
hits / game
8.1
1.23
home runs / game
1.37
3.6
walks drawn / game
3.4
8.8
batter strikeouts / game
9.0
8.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.5
0.41
errors / game
0.48

Rating Trend

ATH · CHW · 108 days
AthleticsChicago White Sox
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHW 4−6
Jul 10at CHWCHW 14 − 1
Apr 19at ATHCHW 7 − 4
Apr 18at ATHATH 7 − 6
Apr 17at ATHCHW 9 − 2
Apr 27, 2025at ATHATH 3 − 2
Apr 26, 2025at ATHCHW 10 − 3
Apr 25, 2025at ATHATH 6 − 5
Apr 17, 2025at CHWATH 8 − 0
Apr 16, 2025at CHWATH 3 − 1
Apr 15, 2025at CHWATH 12 − 3

ATH · Last 10

1−9 · streak L7
Jul 10at CHW1 − 14L
Jul 9at DET1 − 4L
Jul 8at DET1 − 6L
Jul 7at DET2 − 6L
Jul 5vs MIA8 − 9L
Jul 4vs MIA2 − 7L
Jul 3vs MIA5 − 12L
Jul 1vs LAD7 − 1W
Jun 30vs LAD3 − 9L
Jun 29vs LAD4 − 9L

CHW · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Jul 10vs ATH14 − 1W
Jul 9vs BOS1 − 2L
Jul 8vs BOS0 − 5L
Jul 7vs BOS1 − 8L
Jul 5at CLE7 − 6W
Jul 4at CLE3 − 1W
Jul 3at CLE3 − 4L
Jul 2at CLE5 − 6L
Jul 1at BAL1 − 6L
Jun 30at BAL9 − 3W