bayesRatings

Red Sox at White Sox

MLB · Tuesday, Jul 7 · 6:40 PM CT · Rate Field · Final BOS 8 – CHW 1
← MLB / Jul 7

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
BOS0301000048110
CHW000000100140
Team box
BOS·CHW
11
hits
4
2
home runs
0
7
walks
2
8
strikeouts
10
142
pitches thrown
176
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Ceddanne RafaelaBOS2-5112
Andruw MonasterioBOS2-4111
Willson ContrerasBOS2-4102
Jarren DuranBOS2-5101
Sam AntonacciCHW3-4000
Connor WongBOS1-1201
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Payton Tolle (W)BOS6.02016
Noah Schultz (L)CHW5.07433

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHW +7
BOS +7
123456789
largest lead: CHW 0 · BOS 7lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BOS 50%, CHW 50% · Updated Jul 7

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
BOS 4.4 – 4.2 CHW
Expected total
8.7
Red SoxThe matchupWhite Sox
−101Our fair odds+101
4.4Expected runs4.2
+0.02Power rating−0.04
4.1Runs / game4.8
4.0Allowed / game4.5
8.2Hits / game8.1
0.89Home runs / game1.40
2.9Walks drawn / game3.5
40−48Season record47−42
8−2Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BOS chance · CHW chance
Our model fair50.3%49.7%
Kalshi55.7%48.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BOSBoston Red Sox−10150%−12655.7%———
CHWChicago White Sox+10150%+10548.7%———
Spreadabout even
BOSBoston Red Sox−0.2our margin————
CHWChicago White Sox+0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.7
Over8.7our total————
Under8.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Boston Red Sox by 13 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 12 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 11 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 10 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 9 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 8 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 7 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 6 runs: 3%Boston Red Sox by 5 runs: 4%Boston Red Sox by 4 runs: 6%Boston Red Sox by 3 runs: 7%Boston Red Sox by 2 runs: 10%Boston Red Sox by 1 run: 13%Chicago White Sox by 1 run: 16%Chicago White Sox by 2 runs: 10%Chicago White Sox by 3 runs: 7%Chicago White Sox by 4 runs: 5%Chicago White Sox by 5 runs: 4%Chicago White Sox by 6 runs: 3%Chicago White Sox by 7 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 8 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 9 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 10 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 11 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 12 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 13 runs: <1%
← BOS wins byCHW wins by →
Boston Red Sox wins by 2 or more38%
Boston Red Sox wins by 3 or more28%
Chicago White Sox wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.7 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.567%
Total over 8.547%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
BOSPayton Tolle SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 5.06 ERA, 14 Kstarted
CHWNoah Schultz SP · last 3 starts: 13.2 IP, 7.90 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BOS·CHW
Jul 5 at LAA
last game
Jul 5 at CLE
1 day
days of rest
1 day
5
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 88+ games
BOS·CHW
+0.02
rating (0 = average)
−0.04
4.1
runs / game
4.8
4.0
runs allowed / game
4.5
40−48
season record
47−42
17−27
home record
28−14
23−21
away record
19−28
W3
streak
W2
8−2
last 10
6−4
8.2
hits / game
8.1
0.89
home runs / game
1.40
2.9
walks drawn / game
3.5
8.2
batter strikeouts / game
9.0
8.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.4
0.45
errors / game
0.49

Rating Trend

BOS · CHW · 104 days
Boston Red SoxChicago White Sox
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHW 4−6
Apr 21, 2025at BOSBOS 4 − 2
Apr 20, 2025at BOSCHW 8 − 4
Apr 19, 2025at BOSBOS 4 − 3
Apr 18, 2025at BOSBOS 10 − 3
Apr 13, 2025at CHWBOS 3 − 1
Apr 12, 2025at CHWCHW 3 − 2
Apr 11, 2025at CHWCHW 11 − 1
Sep 8, 2024at BOSCHW 7 − 2
Sep 7, 2024at BOSBOS 7 − 5
Sep 6, 2024at BOSBOS 3 − 1

BOS · Last 10

8−2 · streak W3
Jul 5at LAA7 − 5W
Jul 4at LAA8 − 1W
Jul 3at LAA5 − 2W
Jul 1vs WSH2 − 10L
Jun 30vs WSH1 − 8L
Jun 29vs WSH6 − 3W
Jun 28vs NYY5 − 4W
Jun 27vs NYY4 − 1W
Jun 26vs NYY6 − 1W
Jun 25vs NYY6 − 3W

CHW · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Jul 5at CLE7 − 6W
Jul 4at CLE3 − 1W
Jul 3at CLE3 − 4L
Jul 2at CLE5 − 6L
Jul 1at BAL1 − 6L
Jun 30at BAL9 − 3W
Jun 29at BAL8 − 2W
Jun 28vs KC4 − 5L
Jun 27vs KC2 − 1W
Jun 26vs KC22 − 1W