bayesRatings

Red Sox at White Sox

MLB · Wednesday, Jul 8 · 6:40 PM CT · Rate Field · Final BOS 5 – CHW 0
← MLB / Jul 8

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
BOS0032000005100
CHW000000000041
Team box
BOS·CHW
10
hits
4
0
home runs
0
3
walks
1
11
strikeouts
6
103
pitches thrown
194
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Tsung-Che ChengBOS2-3102
Ceddanne RafaelaBOS2-5001
Caleb DurbinBOS2-3100
Carlos NarvaezBOS1-3001
Luisangel AcunaCHW2-2000
Romy GonzalezBOS1-2000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Jake Bennett (W)BOS7.04014
Davis Martin (L)CHW4.06522

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHW +5
BOS +5
123456789
largest lead: CHW 0 · BOS 5lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BOS 51%, CHW 49% · Updated Jul 8

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
BOS 4.5 – 4.2 CHW
Expected total
8.7
Red SoxThe matchupWhite Sox
−103Our fair odds+103
4.5Expected runs4.2
+0.03Power rating−0.06
4.1Runs / game4.8
4.0Allowed / game4.6
8.2Hits / game8.0
0.90Home runs / game1.39
3.0Walks drawn / game3.4
41−48Season record47−43
8−2Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BOS chance · CHW chance
Our model fair50.8%49.2%
Kalshi52.7%51.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BOSBoston Red Sox−10351%−11252.7%———
CHWChicago White Sox+10349%−10751.8%———
Spreadabout even
BOSBoston Red Sox−0.3our margin————
CHWChicago White Sox+0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.7
Over8.7our total————
Under8.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Boston Red Sox by 13 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 12 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 11 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 10 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 9 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 8 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 7 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 6 runs: 3%Boston Red Sox by 5 runs: 4%Boston Red Sox by 4 runs: 6%Boston Red Sox by 3 runs: 8%Boston Red Sox by 2 runs: 10%Boston Red Sox by 1 run: 12%Chicago White Sox by 1 run: 16%Chicago White Sox by 2 runs: 9%Chicago White Sox by 3 runs: 7%Chicago White Sox by 4 runs: 5%Chicago White Sox by 5 runs: 4%Chicago White Sox by 6 runs: 3%Chicago White Sox by 7 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 8 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 9 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 10 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 11 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 12 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 13 runs: <1%
← BOS wins byCHW wins by →
Boston Red Sox wins by 2 or more39%
Boston Red Sox wins by 3 or more28%
Chicago White Sox wins by 2 or more33%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.7 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.567%
Total over 8.547%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
BOSJake Bennett SP · last 3 starts: 20.0 IP, 1.35 ERA, 18 Kstarted
CHWDavis Martin SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 1.84 ERA, 7 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BOS·CHW
Jul 7 at CHW
last game
Jul 7 vs BOS
0 days
days of rest
0 days
5
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 89+ games
BOS·CHW
+0.03
rating (0 = average)
−0.06
4.1
runs / game
4.8
4.0
runs allowed / game
4.6
41−48
season record
47−43
17−27
home record
28−15
24−21
away record
19−28
W4
streak
L1
8−2
last 10
5−5
8.2
hits / game
8.0
0.90
home runs / game
1.39
3.0
walks drawn / game
3.4
8.2
batter strikeouts / game
9.0
8.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.4
0.45
errors / game
0.49

Rating Trend

BOS · CHW · 105 days
Boston Red SoxChicago White Sox
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHW 4−6
Jul 7at CHWBOS 8 − 1
Apr 21, 2025at BOSBOS 4 − 2
Apr 20, 2025at BOSCHW 8 − 4
Apr 19, 2025at BOSBOS 4 − 3
Apr 18, 2025at BOSBOS 10 − 3
Apr 13, 2025at CHWBOS 3 − 1
Apr 12, 2025at CHWCHW 3 − 2
Apr 11, 2025at CHWCHW 11 − 1
Sep 8, 2024at BOSCHW 7 − 2
Sep 7, 2024at BOSBOS 7 − 5

BOS · Last 10

8−2 · streak W4
Jul 7at CHW8 − 1W
Jul 5at LAA7 − 5W
Jul 4at LAA8 − 1W
Jul 3at LAA5 − 2W
Jul 1vs WSH2 − 10L
Jun 30vs WSH1 − 8L
Jun 29vs WSH6 − 3W
Jun 28vs NYY5 − 4W
Jun 27vs NYY4 − 1W
Jun 26vs NYY6 − 1W

CHW · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Jul 7vs BOS1 − 8L
Jul 5at CLE7 − 6W
Jul 4at CLE3 − 1W
Jul 3at CLE3 − 4L
Jul 2at CLE5 − 6L
Jul 1at BAL1 − 6L
Jun 30at BAL9 − 3W
Jun 29at BAL8 − 2W
Jun 28vs KC4 − 5L
Jun 27vs KC2 − 1W