bayesRatings

Athletics at Tigers

MLB · Tuesday, Jul 7 · 5:40 PM CT · Comerica Park · Final ATH 2 – DET 6
← MLB / Jul 7

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ATH001000100271
DET20000400681
Team box
ATH·DET
7
hits
8
1
home runs
1
2
walks
4
12
strikeouts
11
147
pitches thrown
158
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Colt KeithDET1-2112
Henry BolteATH1-3211
Joshua Kuroda-GrauerATH3-4000
Matt VierlingDET1-4102
Kevin McGonigleDET2-4101
Shea LangeliersATH1-3001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
J.T. Ginn (L)ATH4.02224
Tarik Skubal (W)DET5.05129

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DET +5
ATH +5
123456789
largest lead: DET 5 · ATH 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATH 45%, DET 55% · Updated Jul 7

Expected margin
DET by 0.8
Expected score
DET 4.7 – 3.9 ATH
Expected total
8.6
AthleticsThe matchupTigers
+120Our fair odds−120
3.9Expected runs4.7
−0.14Power rating−0.01
4.6Runs / game4.2
5.4Allowed / game4.1
8.5Hits / game7.9
1.27Home runs / game1.17
3.7Walks drawn / game3.6
41−49Season record40−50
3−7Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATH chance · DET chance
Our model fair45.4%54.6%
Kalshi34.5%69.5%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATHAthletics+12045%+18934.5%———
DETDetroit Tigers−12055%−22869.5%———
SpreadDET by 0.8
ATHAthletics+0.8our margin————
DETDetroit Tigers−0.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.6
Over8.6our total————
Under8.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Detroit Tigers by 0.8 expected
Athletics by 14 runs: <1%Athletics by 13 runs: <1%Athletics by 12 runs: <1%Athletics by 11 runs: <1%Athletics by 10 runs: <1%Athletics by 9 runs: 1%Athletics by 8 runs: 1%Athletics by 7 runs: 1%Athletics by 6 runs: 2%Athletics by 5 runs: 3%Athletics by 4 runs: 4%Athletics by 3 runs: 6%Athletics by 2 runs: 9%Athletics by 1 run: 17%Detroit Tigers by 1 run: 12%Detroit Tigers by 2 runs: 11%Detroit Tigers by 3 runs: 8%Detroit Tigers by 4 runs: 6%Detroit Tigers by 5 runs: 5%Detroit Tigers by 6 runs: 4%Detroit Tigers by 7 runs: 3%Detroit Tigers by 8 runs: 2%Detroit Tigers by 9 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 10 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 11 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 12 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 13 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 14 runs: <1%
← ATH wins byDET wins by →
Detroit Tigers wins by 2 or more43%
Detroit Tigers wins by 3 or more32%
Athletics wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.6 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.566%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ATHJ.T. Ginn SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 3.63 ERA, 14 Kstarted
DETTarik Skubal SP · last 3 starts: 17.2 IP, 4.08 ERA, 26 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATH·DET
Jul 5 vs MIA
last game
Jul 5 at TEX
1 day
days of rest
1 day
5
games in last 7 days
5
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 90+ games
ATH·DET
−0.14
rating (0 = average)
−0.01
4.6
runs / game
4.2
5.4
runs allowed / game
4.1
41−49
season record
40−50
19−28
home record
23−21
22−21
away record
17−29
L3
streak
W2
3−7
last 10
6−4
8.5
hits / game
7.9
1.27
home runs / game
1.17
3.7
walks drawn / game
3.6
8.7
batter strikeouts / game
8.7
8.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.1
0.40
errors / game
0.43

Rating Trend

ATH · DET · 104 days
AthleticsDetroit Tigers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · DET 4−6
Aug 27, 2025at ATHATH 7 − 0
Aug 26, 2025at ATHATH 7 − 6
Aug 25, 2025at ATHATH 8 − 3
Jun 26, 2025at DETDET 8 − 0
Jun 25, 2025at DETATH 3 − 0
Jun 24, 2025at DETDET 11 − 4
Sep 8, 2024at ATHDET 9 − 1
Sep 7, 2024at ATHDET 2 − 1
Sep 6, 2024at ATHATH 7 − 6
Apr 7, 2024at DETATH 7 − 1

ATH · Last 10

3−7 · streak L3
Jul 5vs MIA8 − 9L
Jul 4vs MIA2 − 7L
Jul 3vs MIA5 − 12L
Jul 1vs LAD7 − 1W
Jun 30vs LAD3 − 9L
Jun 29vs LAD4 − 9L
Jun 28at LAA1 − 4L
Jun 27at LAA2 − 5L
Jun 26at LAA9 − 3W
Jun 25at SF9 − 6W

DET · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Jul 5at TEX6 − 3W
Jul 4at TEX3 − 0W
Jul 2at TEX4 − 10L
Jul 1at NYY6 − 2W
Jun 30at NYY9 − 3W
Jun 29at NYY7 − 3W
Jun 28vs HOU5 − 7L
Jun 27vs HOU6 − 8L
Jun 26vs HOU8 − 0W
Jun 25vs HOU1 − 2L