bayesRatings

Athletics at White Sox

MLB · Friday, Jul 10 · 6:40 PM CT · Rate Field · Final ATH 1 – CHW 14
← MLB / Jul 10

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ATH000000100151
CHW0000408214150
Team box
ATH·CHW
5
hits
15
1
home runs
2
1
walks
4
11
strikeouts
9
154
pitches thrown
128
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Tristan PetersCHW4-4214
Miguel VargasCHW3-4213
Andrew BenintendiCHW2-5204
Tyler SoderstromATH1-3111
Chase MeidrothCHW2-4201
Jacob WilsonATH2-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Jacob LopezATH1.20001
Aaron Civale (L)ATH2.16414
Sean Burke (W)CHW7.04109

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHW +13
ATH +13
123456789
largest lead: CHW 13 · ATH 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATH 46%, CHW 54% · Updated Jul 10

Expected margin
CHW by 0.5
Expected score
CHW 4.9 – 4.4 ATH
Expected total
9.3
AthleticsThe matchupWhite Sox
+117Our fair odds−117
4.4Expected runs4.9
−0.17Power rating−0.07
4.5Runs / game4.7
5.4Allowed / game4.5
8.4Hits / game8.0
1.24Home runs / game1.36
3.6Walks drawn / game3.4
41−52Season record47−45
1−9Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATH chance · CHW chance
Our model fair46.1%53.9%
Kalshi39.6%64.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATHAthletics+11746%+15239.6%———
CHWChicago White Sox−11754%−18364.6%———
SpreadCHW by 0.5
ATHAthletics+0.5our margin————
CHWChicago White Sox−0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.3
Over9.3our total————
Under9.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Chicago White Sox by 0.5 expected
Athletics by 14 runs: <1%Athletics by 13 runs: <1%Athletics by 12 runs: <1%Athletics by 11 runs: <1%Athletics by 10 runs: 1%Athletics by 9 runs: 1%Athletics by 8 runs: 1%Athletics by 7 runs: 2%Athletics by 6 runs: 3%Athletics by 5 runs: 4%Athletics by 4 runs: 5%Athletics by 3 runs: 6%Athletics by 2 runs: 9%Athletics by 1 run: 14%Chicago White Sox by 1 run: 13%Chicago White Sox by 2 runs: 10%Chicago White Sox by 3 runs: 7%Chicago White Sox by 4 runs: 6%Chicago White Sox by 5 runs: 5%Chicago White Sox by 6 runs: 4%Chicago White Sox by 7 runs: 3%Chicago White Sox by 8 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 9 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 10 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 11 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 12 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 13 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 14 runs: <1%
← ATH wins byCHW wins by →
Chicago White Sox wins by 2 or more41%
Chicago White Sox wins by 3 or more31%
Athletics wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.3 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.560%
Total over 9.542%
Total over 11.527%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ATHJacob Lopez SP · last 3 starts: 10.2 IP, 10.97 ERA, 7 Kstarted
CHWSean Burke SP · last 3 starts: 17.2 IP, 2.04 ERA, 25 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATH·CHW
Jul 9 at DET
last game
Jul 9 vs BOS
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 92+ games
ATH·CHW
−0.17
rating (0 = average)
−0.07
4.5
runs / game
4.7
5.4
runs allowed / game
4.5
41−52
season record
47−45
19−28
home record
28−17
22−24
away record
19−28
L6
streak
L3
1−9
last 10
4−6
8.4
hits / game
8.0
1.24
home runs / game
1.36
3.6
walks drawn / game
3.4
8.8
batter strikeouts / game
9.0
8.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.4
0.41
errors / game
0.49

Rating Trend

ATH · CHW · 107 days
AthleticsChicago White Sox
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHW 4−6
Apr 19at ATHCHW 7 − 4
Apr 18at ATHATH 7 − 6
Apr 17at ATHCHW 9 − 2
Apr 27, 2025at ATHATH 3 − 2
Apr 26, 2025at ATHCHW 10 − 3
Apr 25, 2025at ATHATH 6 − 5
Apr 17, 2025at CHWATH 8 − 0
Apr 16, 2025at CHWATH 3 − 1
Apr 15, 2025at CHWATH 12 − 3
Sep 15, 2024at CHWCHW 4 − 3

ATH · Last 10

1−9 · streak L6
Jul 9at DET1 − 4L
Jul 8at DET1 − 6L
Jul 7at DET2 − 6L
Jul 5vs MIA8 − 9L
Jul 4vs MIA2 − 7L
Jul 3vs MIA5 − 12L
Jul 1vs LAD7 − 1W
Jun 30vs LAD3 − 9L
Jun 29vs LAD4 − 9L
Jun 28at LAA1 − 4L

CHW · Last 10

4−6 · streak L3
Jul 9vs BOS1 − 2L
Jul 8vs BOS0 − 5L
Jul 7vs BOS1 − 8L
Jul 5at CLE7 − 6W
Jul 4at CLE3 − 1W
Jul 3at CLE3 − 4L
Jul 2at CLE5 − 6L
Jul 1at BAL1 − 6L
Jun 30at BAL9 − 3W
Jun 29at BAL8 − 2W