bayesRatings

Nationals at Athletics

MLB · Friday, Jul 17 · 8:40 PM CT · Sutter Health Park · Final WSH 23 – ATH 4
← MLB / Jul 17

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
WSH00314640523211
ATH000200002491
Team box
WSH·ATH
21
hits
9
4
home runs
2
6
walks
1
13
strikeouts
14
152
pitches thrown
219
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Andres ChaparroWSH4-5428
Daylen LileWSH2-6114
Curtis MeadWSH4-6403
Harry FordWSH2-5313
Tyler SoderstromATH1-3112
Shea LangeliersATH1-4111
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Cade Cavalli (W)WSH6.04209
Gage Jump (L)ATH3.24328

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATH +21
WSH +21
123456789
largest lead: ATH 0 · WSH 21lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was WSH 52%, ATH 48% · Updated Jul 17

Expected margin
WSH by 0.8
Expected score
WSH 5.9 – 5.0 ATH
Expected total
10.9
NationalsThe matchupAthletics
−108Our fair odds+108
5.9Expected runs5.0
−0.07Power rating−0.21
5.3Runs / game4.4
5.2Allowed / game5.5
8.6Hits / game8.3
1.42Home runs / game1.22
3.4Walks drawn / game3.5
48−49Season record41−55
4−6Last 101−9

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
WSH chance · ATH chance
Our model fair52.0%48.0%
Kalshi56.7%47.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
WSHWashington Nationals−10852%−13156.7%———
ATHAthletics+10848%+10947.7%———
SpreadWSH by 0.8
WSHWashington Nationals−0.8our margin————
ATHAthletics+0.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 10.9
Over10.9our total————
Under10.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Washington Nationals by 0.8 expected
Washington Nationals by 16 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 15 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 14 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 13 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 12 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 11 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 10 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 9 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 8 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 7 runs: 3%Washington Nationals by 6 runs: 4%Washington Nationals by 5 runs: 5%Washington Nationals by 4 runs: 6%Washington Nationals by 3 runs: 7%Washington Nationals by 2 runs: 9%Washington Nationals by 1 run: 9%Athletics by 1 run: 14%Athletics by 2 runs: 8%Athletics by 3 runs: 6%Athletics by 4 runs: 5%Athletics by 5 runs: 4%Athletics by 6 runs: 3%Athletics by 7 runs: 2%Athletics by 8 runs: 1%Athletics by 9 runs: 1%Athletics by 10 runs: 1%Athletics by 11 runs: 1%Athletics by 12 runs: <1%Athletics by 13 runs: <1%Athletics by 14 runs: <1%Athletics by 15 runs: <1%Athletics by 16 runs: <1%
← WSH wins byATH wins by →
Washington Nationals wins by 2 or more44%
Washington Nationals wins by 3 or more35%
Athletics wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

10.9 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 3%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 7%6 runs: 5%7 runs: 9%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 7%14 runs: 5%15 runs: 5%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%28 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 8.565%
Total over 10.548%
Total over 12.534%
Total from 9 to 1231%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
WSHCade Cavalli SP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 2.93 ERA, 21 Kstarted
ATHGage Jump SP · last 3 starts: 13.1 IP, 7.42 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
WSH·ATH
Jul 12 vs NYY
last game
Jul 12 at CHW
4 days
days of rest
4 days
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 96+ games
WSH·ATH
−0.07
rating (0 = average)
−0.21
5.3
runs / game
4.4
5.2
runs allowed / game
5.5
48−49
season record
41−55
20−31
home record
19−28
28−18
away record
22−27
L3
streak
L9
4−6
last 10
1−9
8.6
hits / game
8.3
1.42
home runs / game
1.22
3.4
walks drawn / game
3.5
8.2
batter strikeouts / game
8.8
7.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.5
0.76
errors / game
0.42

Rating Trend

WSH · ATH · 111 days
Washington NationalsAthletics
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATH 4−6
Aug 7, 2025at WSHATH 6 − 0
Aug 6, 2025at WSHWSH 2 − 1
Aug 5, 2025at WSHATH 16 − 7
Apr 14, 2024at ATHATH 7 − 6
Apr 13, 2024at ATHWSH 3 − 1
Apr 12, 2024at ATHATH 2 − 1
Aug 13, 2023at WSHWSH 8 − 7
Aug 12, 2023at WSHWSH 3 − 2
Aug 11, 2023at WSHWSH 8 − 2
Sep 1, 2022at WSHWSH 7 − 5

WSH · Last 10

4−6 · streak L3
Jul 12vs NYY3 − 5L
Jul 11vs NYY2 − 4L
Jul 10vs NYY3 − 5L
Jul 8vs HOU8 − 2W
Jul 7vs HOU3 − 6L
Jul 6vs HOU12 − 11W
Jul 5vs PIT5 − 11L
Jul 4vs PIT1 − 7L
Jul 3vs PIT9 − 5W
Jul 1at BOS10 − 2W

ATH · Last 10

1−9 · streak L9
Jul 12at CHW1 − 9L
Jul 11at CHW0 − 1L
Jul 10at CHW1 − 14L
Jul 9at DET1 − 4L
Jul 8at DET1 − 6L
Jul 7at DET2 − 6L
Jul 5vs MIA8 − 9L
Jul 4vs MIA2 − 7L
Jul 3vs MIA5 − 12L
Jul 1vs LAD7 − 1W