bayesRatings

Yankees at Nationals

MLB · Sunday, Jul 12 · 12:35 PM CT · Nationals Park · Final NYY 5 – WSH 3
← MLB / Jul 12

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
NYY000020021581
WSH100001100360
Team box
NYY·WSH
8
hits
6
0
home runs
2
3
walks
3
8
strikeouts
6
140
pitches thrown
141
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Curtis MeadWSH1-2111
James WoodWSH1-2111
Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY2-4101
Ben RiceNYY1-4002
Cody BellingerNYY2-3200
Jose CaballeroNYY1-3001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Will WarrenNYY5.04122
Ryan Yarbrough (W)NYY0.10010
Paul Blackburn (S)NYY2.00002
Cade CavalliWSH6.04215
Andrew Alvarez (L)WSH2.04312

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
WSH +3
NYY +3
123456789
largest lead: WSH 1 · NYY 2lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYY 55%, WSH 45% · Updated Jul 12

Expected margin
NYY by 1.5
Expected score
NYY 6.2 – 4.8 WSH
Expected total
11.0
YankeesThe matchupNationals
−120Our fair odds+120
6.2Expected runs4.8
+0.17Power rating−0.07
4.8Runs / game5.3
3.9Allowed / game5.2
7.9Hits / game8.6
1.49Home runs / game1.42
3.8Walks drawn / game3.4
53−42Season record48−48
5−5Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYY chance · WSH chance
Our model fair54.5%45.5%
Kalshi49.7%55.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:35 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYYNew York Yankees−12055%+10149.7%———
WSHWashington Nationals+12045%−12655.7%———
SpreadNYY by 1.5
NYYNew York Yankees−1.5our margin————
WSHWashington Nationals+1.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 11.0
Over11.0our total————
Under11.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Yankees by 1.5 expected
New York Yankees by 17 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 16 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 15 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 14 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 13 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 12 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 11 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 10 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 9 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 8 runs: 3%New York Yankees by 7 runs: 4%New York Yankees by 6 runs: 5%New York Yankees by 5 runs: 6%New York Yankees by 4 runs: 7%New York Yankees by 3 runs: 8%New York Yankees by 2 runs: 9%New York Yankees by 1 run: 9%Washington Nationals by 1 run: 14%Washington Nationals by 2 runs: 7%Washington Nationals by 3 runs: 5%Washington Nationals by 4 runs: 4%Washington Nationals by 5 runs: 3%Washington Nationals by 6 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 7 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 8 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 9 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 10 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 11 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 12 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 13 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 14 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 15 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 16 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 17 runs: <1%
← NYY wins byWSH wins by →
New York Yankees wins by 2 or more49%
New York Yankees wins by 3 or more40%
Washington Nationals wins by 2 or more28%
Decided by one run23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

11.0 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 3%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 7%6 runs: 5%7 runs: 9%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 7%14 runs: 5%15 runs: 5%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: 1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%28 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 9.556%
Total over 11.541%
Total over 13.528%
Total from 10 to 1328%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
NYYWill Warren SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 7.80 ERA, 10 Kstarted
WSHCade Cavalli SP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 2.93 ERA, 23 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYY·WSH
Jul 11 at WSH
last game
Jul 11 vs NYY
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
7th straight road game
home / road
9th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 95+ games
NYY·WSH
+0.17
rating (0 = average)
−0.07
4.8
runs / game
5.3
3.9
runs allowed / game
5.2
53−42
season record
48−48
23−20
home record
20−30
30−22
away record
28−18
W3
streak
L2
5−5
last 10
5−5
7.9
hits / game
8.6
1.49
home runs / game
1.42
3.8
walks drawn / game
3.4
9.0
batter strikeouts / game
8.3
8.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.9
0.58
errors / game
0.77

Rating Trend

NYY · WSH · 109 days
New York YankeesWashington Nationals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · WSH 3−7
Jul 11at WSHNYY 4 − 2
Jul 10at WSHNYY 5 − 3
Aug 27, 2025at NYYNYY 11 − 2
Aug 26, 2025at NYYNYY 5 − 1
Aug 25, 2025at NYYNYY 10 − 5
Aug 28, 2024at WSHWSH 5 − 2
Aug 27, 2024at WSHWSH 4 − 2
Aug 26, 2024at WSHNYY 5 − 2
Aug 24, 2023at NYYWSH 6 − 5
Aug 23, 2023at NYYNYY 9 − 1

NYY · Last 10

5−5 · streak W3
Jul 11at WSH4 − 2W
Jul 10at WSH5 − 3W
Jul 9at TB12 − 4W
Jul 8at TB0 − 3L
Jul 7at TB4 − 6L
Jul 6at TB5 − 1W
Jul 5vs MIN1 − 6L
Jul 4vs MIN4 − 11L
Jul 3vs MIN5 − 2W
Jul 1vs DET2 − 6L

WSH · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Jul 11vs NYY2 − 4L
Jul 10vs NYY3 − 5L
Jul 8vs HOU8 − 2W
Jul 7vs HOU3 − 6L
Jul 6vs HOU12 − 11W
Jul 5vs PIT5 − 11L
Jul 4vs PIT1 − 7L
Jul 3vs PIT9 − 5W
Jul 1at BOS10 − 2W
Jun 30at BOS8 − 1W