bayesRatings

Yankees at Rays

MLB · Monday, Jul 6 · 5:40 PM CT · Tropicana Field · Final NYY 5 – TB 1
← MLB / Jul 6

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
NYY000030011530
TB000010000140
Team box
NYY·TB
3
hits
4
3
home runs
0
2
walks
0
17
strikeouts
9
112
pitches thrown
146
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jose CaballeroNYY2-3224
Ben RiceNYY1-4111
Richie PalaciosTB2-3001
Chandler SimpsonTB1-3100
Jonny DeLucaTB1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Cam Schlittler (W)NYY8.04108
Griffin Jax (L)TB5.013210

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TB +4
NYY +4
123456789
largest lead: TB 0 · NYY 4lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYY 50%, TB 50% · Updated Jul 6

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
NYY 4.4 – 4.0 TB
Expected total
8.4
YankeesThe matchupRays
−101Our fair odds+101
4.4Expected runs4.0
+0.14Power rating+0.07
4.8Runs / game4.6
3.9Allowed / game4.1
7.8Hits / game8.6
1.44Home runs / game0.97
3.9Walks drawn / game3.6
49−40Season record52−35
1−9Last 108−2

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYY chance · TB chance
Our model fair50.4%49.6%
Kalshi55.7%49.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYYNew York Yankees−10150%−12655.7%———
TBTampa Bay Rays+10150%+10149.7%———
Spreadabout even
NYYNew York Yankees−0.4our margin————
TBTampa Bay Rays+0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.4
Over8.4our total————
Under8.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
New York Yankees by 13 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 12 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 11 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 10 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 9 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 8 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 7 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 6 runs: 3%New York Yankees by 5 runs: 5%New York Yankees by 4 runs: 6%New York Yankees by 3 runs: 8%New York Yankees by 2 runs: 11%New York Yankees by 1 run: 11%Tampa Bay Rays by 1 run: 18%Tampa Bay Rays by 2 runs: 9%Tampa Bay Rays by 3 runs: 7%Tampa Bay Rays by 4 runs: 5%Tampa Bay Rays by 5 runs: 4%Tampa Bay Rays by 6 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 7 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 8 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 9 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 10 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 11 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 12 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 13 runs: <1%
← NYY wins byTB wins by →
New York Yankees wins by 2 or more39%
New York Yankees wins by 3 or more29%
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.4 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.545%
Total over 10.528%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
NYYCam Schlittler SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 3.60 ERA, 27 Kstarted
TBGriffin Jax SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 2.81 ERA, 17 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYY·TB
Jul 5 vs MIN
last game
Jul 5 at HOU
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 87+ games
NYY·TB
+0.14
rating (0 = average)
+0.07
4.8
runs / game
4.6
3.9
runs allowed / game
4.1
49−40
season record
52−35
23−20
home record
31−12
26−20
away record
21−23
L2
streak
L2
1−9
last 10
8−2
7.8
hits / game
8.6
1.44
home runs / game
0.97
3.9
walks drawn / game
3.6
8.9
batter strikeouts / game
7.1
8.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.9
0.58
errors / game
0.61

Rating Trend

NYY · TB · 103 days
New York YankeesTampa Bay Rays
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TB 4−6
May 24at NYYNYY 2 − 0
May 22at NYYTB 4 − 2
Apr 12at TBTB 5 − 4
Apr 11at TBTB 5 − 4
Apr 10at TBTB 5 − 3
Aug 20, 2025at TBNYY 6 − 4
Aug 19, 2025at TBNYY 13 − 3
Jul 31, 2025at NYYNYY 7 − 4
Jul 30, 2025at NYYNYY 5 − 4
Jul 29, 2025at NYYNYY 7 − 5

NYY · Last 10

1−9 · streak L2
Jul 5vs MIN1 − 6L
Jul 4vs MIN4 − 11L
Jul 3vs MIN5 − 2W
Jul 1vs DET2 − 6L
Jun 30vs DET3 − 9L
Jun 29vs DET3 − 7L
Jun 28at BOS4 − 5L
Jun 27at BOS1 − 4L
Jun 26at BOS1 − 6L
Jun 25at BOS3 − 6L

TB · Last 10

8−2 · streak L2
Jul 5at HOU0 − 2L
Jul 4at HOU8 − 10L
Jul 3at HOU3 − 1W
Jul 2at KC5 − 2W
Jul 1at KC4 − 0W
Jun 30at KC10 − 4W
Jun 28vs ARI5 − 1W
Jun 27vs ARI4 − 2W
Jun 26vs ARI6 − 1W
Jun 25vs KC13 − 2W