bayesRatings

Yankees at Rays

MLB · Thursday, Jul 9 · 12:10 PM CT · Tropicana Field · Final NYY 12 – TB 4
← MLB / Jul 9

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
NYY00610311012140
TB1020010004101
Team box
NYY·TB
14
hits
10
3
home runs
1
4
walks
2
7
strikeouts
9
142
pitches thrown
152
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Ben RiceNYY2-4325
Ryan McMahonNYY2-5102
Austin WellsNYY1-4211
Junior CamineroTB1-4111
Cody BellingerNYY2-5101
Trent GrishamNYY2-5201
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Paul BlackburnNYY2.02103
Ryan Yarbrough (W)NYY1.02000
Drew Rasmussen (L)TB2.17602

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TB +8
NYY +8
123456789
largest lead: TB 1 · NYY 8lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYY 50%, TB 50% · Updated Jul 9

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
NYY 4.3 – 3.9 TB
Expected total
8.2
YankeesThe matchupRays
+100Our fair odds−100
4.3Expected runs3.9
+0.14Power rating+0.08
4.7Runs / game4.5
3.9Allowed / game4.1
7.7Hits / game8.6
1.43Home runs / game0.97
3.8Walks drawn / game3.6
50−42Season record54−36
2−8Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYY chance · TB chance
Our model fair49.9%50.1%
Kalshi44.7%59.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYYNew York Yankees+10050%+12444.7%———
TBTampa Bay Rays−10050%−14859.7%———
Spreadabout even
NYYNew York Yankees−0.4our margin————
TBTampa Bay Rays+0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.2
Over8.2our total————
Under8.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
New York Yankees by 13 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 12 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 11 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 10 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 9 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 8 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 7 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 6 runs: 3%New York Yankees by 5 runs: 5%New York Yankees by 4 runs: 6%New York Yankees by 3 runs: 8%New York Yankees by 2 runs: 11%New York Yankees by 1 run: 12%Tampa Bay Rays by 1 run: 18%Tampa Bay Rays by 2 runs: 10%Tampa Bay Rays by 3 runs: 7%Tampa Bay Rays by 4 runs: 5%Tampa Bay Rays by 5 runs: 3%Tampa Bay Rays by 6 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 7 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 8 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 9 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 10 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 11 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 12 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 13 runs: <1%
← NYY wins byTB wins by →
New York Yankees wins by 2 or more39%
New York Yankees wins by 3 or more29%
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.2 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.563%
Total over 8.543%
Total over 10.526%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
NYYPaul Blackburn RP · last 3 starts: 6.2 IP, 8.10 ERA, 7 Kstarted
TBDrew Rasmussen SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 3.71 ERA, 12 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYY·TB
Jul 8 at TB
last game
Jul 8 vs NYY
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
4th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 90+ games
NYY·TB
+0.14
rating (0 = average)
+0.08
4.7
runs / game
4.5
3.9
runs allowed / game
4.1
50−42
season record
54−36
23−20
home record
33−13
27−22
away record
21−23
L2
streak
W2
2−8
last 10
7−3
7.7
hits / game
8.6
1.43
home runs / game
0.97
3.8
walks drawn / game
3.6
9.1
batter strikeouts / game
7.2
8.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.1
0.57
errors / game
0.60

Rating Trend

NYY · TB · 106 days
New York YankeesTampa Bay Rays
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TB 6−4
Jul 8at TBTB 3 − 0
Jul 7at TBTB 6 − 4
Jul 6at TBNYY 5 − 1
May 24at NYYNYY 2 − 0
May 22at NYYTB 4 − 2
Apr 12at TBTB 5 − 4
Apr 11at TBTB 5 − 4
Apr 10at TBTB 5 − 3
Aug 20, 2025at TBNYY 6 − 4
Aug 19, 2025at TBNYY 13 − 3

NYY · Last 10

2−8 · streak L2
Jul 8at TB0 − 3L
Jul 7at TB4 − 6L
Jul 6at TB5 − 1W
Jul 5vs MIN1 − 6L
Jul 4vs MIN4 − 11L
Jul 3vs MIN5 − 2W
Jul 1vs DET2 − 6L
Jun 30vs DET3 − 9L
Jun 29vs DET3 − 7L
Jun 28at BOS4 − 5L

TB · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
Jul 8vs NYY3 − 0W
Jul 7vs NYY6 − 4W
Jul 6vs NYY1 − 5L
Jul 5at HOU0 − 2L
Jul 4at HOU8 − 10L
Jul 3at HOU3 − 1W
Jul 2at KC5 − 2W
Jul 1at KC4 − 0W
Jun 30at KC10 − 4W
Jun 28vs ARI5 − 1W