bayesRatings

Yankees at Rays

MLB · Tuesday, Jul 7 · 5:40 PM CT · Tropicana Field · Final NYY 4 – TB 6
← MLB / Jul 7

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
NYY0030001004110
TB02040000681
Team box
NYY·TB
11
hits
8
1
home runs
3
0
walks
3
17
strikeouts
6
122
pitches thrown
146
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Ben RiceNYY3-4113
Yandy DiazTB2-4112
Hunter FeducciaTB1-2112
Victor Mesa Jr.TB2-4111
Ali SanchezNYY2-3001
Richie PalaciosTB2-2201
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Will Warren (L)NYY4.07623
Ian Seymour (W)TB5.153012
Bryan Baker (S)TB1.01001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TB +3
NYY +3
123456789
largest lead: TB 3 · NYY 1lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYY 51%, TB 49% · Updated Jul 7

Expected margin
NYY by 0.5
Expected score
NYY 4.4 – 3.9 TB
Expected total
8.3
YankeesThe matchupRays
−103Our fair odds+103
4.4Expected runs3.9
+0.15Power rating+0.07
4.8Runs / game4.5
3.9Allowed / game4.2
7.7Hits / game8.6
1.46Home runs / game0.95
3.9Walks drawn / game3.6
50−40Season record52−36
2−8Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYY chance · TB chance
Our model fair50.6%49.4%
Kalshi47.7%56.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYYNew York Yankees−10351%+10947.7%———
TBTampa Bay Rays+10349%−13156.7%———
SpreadNYY by 0.5
NYYNew York Yankees−0.5our margin————
TBTampa Bay Rays+0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.3
Over8.3our total————
Under8.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Yankees by 0.5 expected
New York Yankees by 13 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 12 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 11 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 10 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 9 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 8 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 7 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 6 runs: 3%New York Yankees by 5 runs: 5%New York Yankees by 4 runs: 6%New York Yankees by 3 runs: 8%New York Yankees by 2 runs: 11%New York Yankees by 1 run: 11%Tampa Bay Rays by 1 run: 18%Tampa Bay Rays by 2 runs: 9%Tampa Bay Rays by 3 runs: 6%Tampa Bay Rays by 4 runs: 5%Tampa Bay Rays by 5 runs: 3%Tampa Bay Rays by 6 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 7 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 8 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 9 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 10 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 11 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 12 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 13 runs: <1%
← NYY wins byTB wins by →
New York Yankees wins by 2 or more40%
New York Yankees wins by 3 or more30%
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.3 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.564%
Total over 8.544%
Total over 10.527%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
NYYWill Warren SP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 4.86 ERA, 15 Kstarted
TBIan Seymour SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 3.00 ERA, 17 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYY·TB
Jul 6 at TB
last game
Jul 6 vs NYY
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 88+ games
NYY·TB
+0.15
rating (0 = average)
+0.07
4.8
runs / game
4.5
3.9
runs allowed / game
4.2
50−40
season record
52−36
23−20
home record
31−13
27−20
away record
21−23
W1
streak
L3
2−8
last 10
7−3
7.7
hits / game
8.6
1.46
home runs / game
0.95
3.9
walks drawn / game
3.6
9.0
batter strikeouts / game
7.2
8.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.0
0.58
errors / game
0.60

Rating Trend

NYY · TB · 104 days
New York YankeesTampa Bay Rays
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TB 4−6
Jul 6at TBNYY 5 − 1
May 24at NYYNYY 2 − 0
May 22at NYYTB 4 − 2
Apr 12at TBTB 5 − 4
Apr 11at TBTB 5 − 4
Apr 10at TBTB 5 − 3
Aug 20, 2025at TBNYY 6 − 4
Aug 19, 2025at TBNYY 13 − 3
Jul 31, 2025at NYYNYY 7 − 4
Jul 30, 2025at NYYNYY 5 − 4

NYY · Last 10

2−8 · streak W1
Jul 6at TB5 − 1W
Jul 5vs MIN1 − 6L
Jul 4vs MIN4 − 11L
Jul 3vs MIN5 − 2W
Jul 1vs DET2 − 6L
Jun 30vs DET3 − 9L
Jun 29vs DET3 − 7L
Jun 28at BOS4 − 5L
Jun 27at BOS1 − 4L
Jun 26at BOS1 − 6L

TB · Last 10

7−3 · streak L3
Jul 6vs NYY1 − 5L
Jul 5at HOU0 − 2L
Jul 4at HOU8 − 10L
Jul 3at HOU3 − 1W
Jul 2at KC5 − 2W
Jul 1at KC4 − 0W
Jun 30at KC10 − 4W
Jun 28vs ARI5 − 1W
Jun 27vs ARI4 − 2W
Jun 26vs ARI6 − 1W