bayesRatings

Reds at Rockies

MLB · Sunday, Jul 19 · 2:10 PM CT · Coors Field · Final CIN 9 – COL 6
← MLB / Jul 19

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CIN5300100009101
COL100002021680
Team box
CIN·COL
10
hits
8
4
home runs
4
5
walks
0
6
strikeouts
9
142
pitches thrown
149
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Hunter GoodmanCOL3-4335
Tyler StephensonCIN3-4223
Nathaniel LoweCIN1-5113
Sal StewartCIN1-5113
Willi CastroCOL1-4111
Dane MyersCIN2-2100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Hunter Greene (W)CIN6.04307
Ryan Feltner (L)COL2.17843

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
COL +8
CIN +8
123456789
largest lead: COL 0 · CIN 8lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CIN 57%, COL 43% · Updated Jul 19

Expected margin
CIN by 1.1
Expected score
CIN 6.1 – 5.0 COL
Expected total
11.1
RedsThe matchupRockies
−135Our fair odds+135
6.1Expected runs5.0
−0.07Power rating−0.43
4.2Runs / game4.8
4.8Allowed / game5.7
7.7Hits / game8.7
1.29Home runs / game1.12
3.6Walks drawn / game3.2
44−53Season record40−60
4−6Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CIN chance · COL chance
Our model fair57.4%42.6%
Kalshi62.7%41.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 2:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CINCincinnati Reds−13557%−16862.7%———
COLColorado Rockies+13543%+14041.7%———
SpreadCIN by 1.1
CINCincinnati Reds−1.1our margin————
COLColorado Rockies+1.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 11.1
Over11.1our total————
Under11.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Cincinnati Reds by 1.1 expected
Cincinnati Reds by 17 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 16 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 15 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 14 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 13 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 12 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 11 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 10 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 9 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 8 runs: 3%Cincinnati Reds by 7 runs: 3%Cincinnati Reds by 6 runs: 4%Cincinnati Reds by 5 runs: 5%Cincinnati Reds by 4 runs: 6%Cincinnati Reds by 3 runs: 7%Cincinnati Reds by 2 runs: 9%Cincinnati Reds by 1 run: 11%Colorado Rockies by 1 run: 12%Colorado Rockies by 2 runs: 8%Colorado Rockies by 3 runs: 6%Colorado Rockies by 4 runs: 5%Colorado Rockies by 5 runs: 4%Colorado Rockies by 6 runs: 3%Colorado Rockies by 7 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 8 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 9 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 10 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 11 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 12 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 13 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 14 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 15 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 16 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 17 runs: <1%
← CIN wins byCOL wins by →
Cincinnati Reds wins by 2 or more46%
Cincinnati Reds wins by 3 or more37%
Colorado Rockies wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

11.1 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 3%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 6%6 runs: 5%7 runs: 9%8 runs: 6%9 runs: 9%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 7%14 runs: 5%15 runs: 5%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 4%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: 1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%28 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 9.557%
Total over 11.541%
Total over 13.528%
Total from 10 to 1328%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CINHunter Greene SP · last 3 starts: 13.1 IP, 8.78 ERA, 23 Kstarted
COLRyan Feltner SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 3.86 ERA, 12 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CIN·COL
Jul 18 at COL
last game
Jul 18 vs CIN
0 days
days of rest
0 days
3
games in last 7 days
3
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 97+ games
CIN·COL
−0.07
rating (0 = average)
−0.43
4.2
runs / game
4.8
4.8
runs allowed / game
5.7
44−53
season record
40−60
22−28
home record
23−26
22−25
away record
17−34
L1
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
4−6
7.7
hits / game
8.7
1.29
home runs / game
1.12
3.6
walks drawn / game
3.2
9.4
batter strikeouts / game
8.7
8.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.0
0.53
errors / game
0.62

Rating Trend

CIN · COL · 113 days
Cincinnati RedsColorado Rockies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · COL 3−7
Jul 18at COLCOL 10 − 3
Jul 17at COLCIN 7 − 2
Apr 30at CINCIN 6 − 4
Apr 29at CINCOL 13 − 2
Apr 28at CINCIN 7 − 2
Jul 13, 2025at CINCIN 4 − 2
Jul 12, 2025at CINCIN 4 − 3
Jul 11, 2025at CINCOL 3 − 2
Apr 27, 2025at COLCIN 8 − 1
Apr 26, 2025at COLCIN 6 − 4

CIN · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Jul 18at COL3 − 10L
Jul 17at COL7 − 2W
Jul 12vs CHC4 − 8L
Jul 11vs CHC3 − 5L
Jul 10vs CHC4 − 0W
Jul 9vs PHI0 − 1L
Jul 8vs PHI11 − 5W
Jul 7vs PHI1 − 4L
Jul 5vs BAL3 − 2W
Jul 4vs BAL5 − 8L

COL · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Jul 18vs CIN10 − 3W
Jul 17vs CIN2 − 7L
Jul 12at SF1 − 3L
Jul 11at SF2 − 4L
Jul 10at SF4 − 3W
Jul 9at SF2 − 8L
Jul 8at LAD3 − 4L
Jul 7at LAD4 − 3W
Jul 6at LAD7 − 8L
Jul 5vs SF7 − 6W