bayesRatings

Nationals at Athletics

MLB · Sunday, Jul 19 · 3:05 PM CT · Sutter Health Park · Final WSH 5 – ATH 2
← MLB / Jul 19

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
WSH001130000570
ATH0010000012110
Team box
WSH·ATH
7
hits
11
2
home runs
0
5
walks
2
10
strikeouts
6
138
pitches thrown
162
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
CJ AbramsWSH2-4112
Dylan CrewsWSH1-3211
Jacob WilsonATH2-5001
Shea LangeliersATH2-4000
Alika WilliamsATH2-3100
Tyler SoderstromATH1-5001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Foster Griffin (W)WSH7.08112
Clayton Beeter (S)WSH1.11112
Jacob Lopez (L)ATH4.12226

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATH +4
WSH +4
123456789
largest lead: ATH 0 · WSH 4lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was WSH 52%, ATH 48% · Updated Jul 19

Expected margin
WSH by 1.0
Expected score
WSH 6.2 – 5.2 ATH
Expected total
11.3
NationalsThe matchupAthletics
−109Our fair odds+109
6.2Expected runs5.2
−0.07Power rating−0.22
5.5Runs / game4.5
5.3Allowed / game5.6
8.6Hits / game8.3
1.43Home runs / game1.24
3.5Walks drawn / game3.6
49−50Season record42−56
3−7Last 101−9

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
WSH chance · ATH chance
Our model fair52.2%47.8%
Kalshi60.7%43.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
WSHWashington Nationals−10952%−15460.7%———
ATHAthletics+10948%+12943.7%———
SpreadWSH by 1.0
WSHWashington Nationals−1our margin————
ATHAthletics+1our margin————
Totalwe expect 11.3
Over11.3our total————
Under11.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Washington Nationals by 1.0 expected
Washington Nationals by 17 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 16 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 15 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 14 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 13 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 12 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 11 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 10 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 9 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 8 runs: 3%Washington Nationals by 7 runs: 3%Washington Nationals by 6 runs: 4%Washington Nationals by 5 runs: 5%Washington Nationals by 4 runs: 6%Washington Nationals by 3 runs: 7%Washington Nationals by 2 runs: 9%Washington Nationals by 1 run: 9%Athletics by 1 run: 14%Athletics by 2 runs: 8%Athletics by 3 runs: 6%Athletics by 4 runs: 5%Athletics by 5 runs: 4%Athletics by 6 runs: 3%Athletics by 7 runs: 2%Athletics by 8 runs: 1%Athletics by 9 runs: 1%Athletics by 10 runs: 1%Athletics by 11 runs: 1%Athletics by 12 runs: <1%Athletics by 13 runs: <1%Athletics by 14 runs: <1%Athletics by 15 runs: <1%Athletics by 16 runs: <1%Athletics by 17 runs: <1%
← WSH wins byATH wins by →
Washington Nationals wins by 2 or more46%
Washington Nationals wins by 3 or more37%
Athletics wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

11.3 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 3%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 6%6 runs: 5%7 runs: 9%8 runs: 6%9 runs: 9%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 7%14 runs: 5%15 runs: 5%16 runs: 4%17 runs: 4%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 2%21 runs: 2%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: 1%25 runs: 1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%28 runs: <1%29 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 9.558%
Total over 11.543%
Total over 13.530%
Total from 10 to 1328%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
WSHFoster Griffin SP · last 3 starts: 19.0 IP, 0.95 ERA, 20 Kstarted
ATHJacob Lopez SP · last 3 starts: 7.1 IP, 13.50 ERA, 6 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
WSH·ATH
Jul 18 at ATH
last game
Jul 18 vs WSH
0 days
days of rest
0 days
3
games in last 7 days
3
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 98+ games
WSH·ATH
−0.07
rating (0 = average)
−0.22
5.5
runs / game
4.5
5.3
runs allowed / game
5.6
49−50
season record
42−56
20−31
home record
20−29
29−19
away record
22−27
L1
streak
W1
3−7
last 10
1−9
8.6
hits / game
8.3
1.43
home runs / game
1.24
3.5
walks drawn / game
3.6
8.3
batter strikeouts / game
8.8
8.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.5
0.77
errors / game
0.42

Rating Trend

WSH · ATH · 113 days
Washington NationalsAthletics
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATH 5−5
Jul 18at ATHATH 15 − 1
Jul 17at ATHWSH 23 − 4
Aug 7, 2025at WSHATH 6 − 0
Aug 6, 2025at WSHWSH 2 − 1
Aug 5, 2025at WSHATH 16 − 7
Apr 14, 2024at ATHATH 7 − 6
Apr 13, 2024at ATHWSH 3 − 1
Apr 12, 2024at ATHATH 2 − 1
Aug 13, 2023at WSHWSH 8 − 7
Aug 12, 2023at WSHWSH 3 − 2

WSH · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Jul 18at ATH1 − 15L
Jul 17at ATH23 − 4W
Jul 12vs NYY3 − 5L
Jul 11vs NYY2 − 4L
Jul 10vs NYY3 − 5L
Jul 8vs HOU8 − 2W
Jul 7vs HOU3 − 6L
Jul 6vs HOU12 − 11W
Jul 5vs PIT5 − 11L
Jul 4vs PIT1 − 7L

ATH · Last 10

1−9 · streak W1
Jul 18vs WSH15 − 1W
Jul 17vs WSH4 − 23L
Jul 12at CHW1 − 9L
Jul 11at CHW0 − 1L
Jul 10at CHW1 − 14L
Jul 9at DET1 − 4L
Jul 8at DET1 − 6L
Jul 7at DET2 − 6L
Jul 5vs MIA8 − 9L
Jul 4vs MIA2 − 7L