bayesRatings

Rockies at Brewers

MLB · Saturday, Jul 25 · 6:10 PM CT · American Family Field · Final COL 5 – MIL 8
← MLB / Jul 25

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
COL000200003571
MIL020104018131
Team box
COL·MIL
7
hits
13
0
home runs
1
4
walks
3
7
strikeouts
9
142
pitches thrown
144
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Cooper PrattMIL3-3113
Luis LaraMIL2-2203
Jake McCarthyCOL1-5002
Hunter GoodmanCOL1-4002
Kyle KarrosCOL2-4101
Christian YelichMIL1-4001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Ryan Feltner (L)COL5.09514
Robert Gasser (W)MIL6.05204
Trevor Megill (S)MIL0.11001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIL +6
COL +6
123456789
largest lead: MIL 6 · COL 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was COL 31%, MIL 69% · Updated Jul 25

Expected margin
MIL by 2.2
Expected score
MIL 5.8 – 3.6 COL
Expected total
9.5
RockiesThe matchupBrewers
+224Our fair odds−224
3.6Expected runs5.8
−0.43Power rating+0.33
4.8Runs / game5.0
5.7Allowed / game3.7
8.6Hits / game8.6
1.12Home runs / game0.93
3.2Walks drawn / game4.1
42−63Season record64−39
4−6Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
COL chance · MIL chance
Our model fair30.8%69.2%
Kalshi33.5%70.5%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
COLColorado Rockies+22431%+19833.5%———
MILMilwaukee Brewers−22469%−23970.5%———
SpreadMIL by 2.2
COLColorado Rockies+2.2our margin————
MILMilwaukee Brewers−2.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.5
Over9.5our total————
Under9.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Milwaukee Brewers by 2.2 expected
Colorado Rockies by 17 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 16 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 15 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 14 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 13 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 12 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 11 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 10 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 9 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 8 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 7 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 6 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 5 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 4 runs: 3%Colorado Rockies by 3 runs: 5%Colorado Rockies by 2 runs: 7%Colorado Rockies by 1 run: 10%Milwaukee Brewers by 1 run: 15%Milwaukee Brewers by 2 runs: 11%Milwaukee Brewers by 3 runs: 9%Milwaukee Brewers by 4 runs: 7%Milwaukee Brewers by 5 runs: 6%Milwaukee Brewers by 6 runs: 5%Milwaukee Brewers by 7 runs: 4%Milwaukee Brewers by 8 runs: 3%Milwaukee Brewers by 9 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 10 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 11 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 12 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 13 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 14 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 15 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 16 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 17 runs: <1%
← COL wins byMIL wins by →
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 2 or more54%
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 3 or more44%
Colorado Rockies wins by 2 or more21%
Decided by one run25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.5 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.561%
Total over 9.544%
Total over 11.529%
Total from 8 to 1132%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
COLRyan Feltner SP · last 3 starts: 12.2 IP, 9.95 ERA, 15 Kstarted
MILRobert Gasser SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 5.74 ERA, 12 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
COL·MIL
Jul 24 at MIL
last game
Jul 24 vs COL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
8th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 103+ games
COL·MIL
−0.43
rating (0 = average)
+0.33
4.8
runs / game
5.0
5.7
runs allowed / game
3.7
42−63
season record
64−39
24−29
home record
34−20
18−34
away record
30−19
W1
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
5−5
8.6
hits / game
8.6
1.12
home runs / game
0.93
3.2
walks drawn / game
4.1
8.6
batter strikeouts / game
8.2
7.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.8
0.62
errors / game
0.41

Rating Trend

COL · MIL · 119 days
Colorado RockiesMilwaukee Brewers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIL 7−3
Jul 24at MILCOL 5 − 2
Jun 7at COLMIL 12 − 4
Jun 6at COLMIL 7 − 1
Jun 5at COLMIL 9 − 7
Jun 29, 2025at MILCOL 4 − 3
Jun 28, 2025at MILMIL 5 − 0
Jun 27, 2025at MILMIL 10 − 6
Apr 10, 2025at COLCOL 7 − 2
Apr 9, 2025at COLMIL 17 − 2
Apr 8, 2025at COLMIL 7 − 1

COL · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Jul 24at MIL5 − 2W
Jul 22vs WSH0 − 8L
Jul 21vs WSH8 − 7W
Jul 20vs WSH3 − 7L
Jul 19vs CIN6 − 9L
Jul 18vs CIN10 − 3W
Jul 17vs CIN2 − 7L
Jul 12at SF1 − 3L
Jul 11at SF2 − 4L
Jul 10at SF4 − 3W

MIL · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Jul 24vs COL2 − 5L
Jul 22vs NYM4 − 3W
Jul 21vs NYM0 − 4L
Jul 20vs NYM8 − 3W
Jul 19vs MIA3 − 1W
Jul 18vs MIA8 − 6W
Jul 17vs MIA2 − 1W
Jul 12at PIT5 − 14L
Jul 11at PIT2 − 3L
Jul 11at PIT6 − 7L