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Mets at Brewers

MLB · Wednesday, Jul 22 · 1:10 PM CT · American Family Field · Final NYM 3 – MIL 4
← MLB / Jul 22

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
NYM010010001380
MIL03000100481
Team box
NYM·MIL
8
hits
8
2
home runs
0
2
walks
5
15
strikeouts
9
173
pitches thrown
146
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Joey OrtizMIL3-3202
Christian YelichMIL2-5002
Marcus SemienNYM1-3111
Brett BatyNYM1-2111
Francisco AlvarezNYM1-4001
A.J. EwingNYM2-5000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Christian Scott (L)NYM3.24336
Logan Henderson (W)MIL5.05209
Trevor Megill (S)MIL1.01110

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIL +3
NYM +3
123456789
largest lead: MIL 2 · NYM 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYM 38%, MIL 62% · Updated Jul 22

Expected margin
MIL by 1.4
Expected score
MIL 5.0 – 3.6 NYM
Expected total
8.6
MetsThe matchupBrewers
+162Our fair odds−162
3.6Expected runs5.0
−0.08Power rating+0.34
4.1Runs / game5.0
4.7Allowed / game3.7
7.9Hits / game8.6
1.17Home runs / game0.93
3.2Walks drawn / game4.2
43−59Season record63−38
5−5Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYM chance · MIL chance
Our model fair38.2%61.8%
Kalshi44.7%61.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 1:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYMNew York Mets+16238%+12444.7%———
MILMilwaukee Brewers−16262%−16161.7%———
SpreadMIL by 1.4
NYMNew York Mets+1.4our margin————
MILMilwaukee Brewers−1.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.6
Over8.6our total————
Under8.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Milwaukee Brewers by 1.4 expected
New York Mets by 15 runs: <1%New York Mets by 14 runs: <1%New York Mets by 13 runs: <1%New York Mets by 12 runs: <1%New York Mets by 11 runs: <1%New York Mets by 10 runs: <1%New York Mets by 9 runs: <1%New York Mets by 8 runs: 1%New York Mets by 7 runs: 1%New York Mets by 6 runs: 2%New York Mets by 5 runs: 3%New York Mets by 4 runs: 4%New York Mets by 3 runs: 5%New York Mets by 2 runs: 8%New York Mets by 1 run: 14%Milwaukee Brewers by 1 run: 14%Milwaukee Brewers by 2 runs: 11%Milwaukee Brewers by 3 runs: 9%Milwaukee Brewers by 4 runs: 7%Milwaukee Brewers by 5 runs: 6%Milwaukee Brewers by 6 runs: 4%Milwaukee Brewers by 7 runs: 3%Milwaukee Brewers by 8 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 9 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 10 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 11 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 12 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 13 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 14 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 15 runs: <1%
← NYM wins byMIL wins by →
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 2 or more48%
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 3 or more37%
New York Mets wins by 2 or more24%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.6 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.566%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
NYMChristian Scott SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 1.84 ERA, 19 Kstarted
MILLogan Henderson SP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 2.35 ERA, 15 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYM·MIL
Jul 21 at MIL
last game
Jul 21 vs NYM
0 days
days of rest
0 days
5
games in last 7 days
5
6th straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 101+ games
NYM·MIL
−0.08
rating (0 = average)
+0.34
4.1
runs / game
5.0
4.7
runs allowed / game
3.7
43−59
season record
63−38
21−28
home record
33−19
22−31
away record
30−19
W1
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
5−5
7.9
hits / game
8.6
1.17
home runs / game
0.93
3.2
walks drawn / game
4.2
8.3
batter strikeouts / game
8.2
9.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.7
0.68
errors / game
0.41

Rating Trend

NYM · MIL · 116 days
New York MetsMilwaukee Brewers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIL 6−4
Jul 21at MILNYM 4 − 0
Jul 20at MILMIL 8 − 3
Aug 10, 2025at MILMIL 7 − 6
Aug 9, 2025at MILMIL 7 − 4
Aug 8, 2025at MILMIL 3 − 2
Jul 3, 2025at NYMNYM 3 − 2
Jul 2, 2025at NYMNYM 7 − 3
Jul 2, 2025at NYMMIL 7 − 2
Oct 3, 2024at MILNYM 4 − 2post
Oct 2, 2024at MILMIL 5 − 3post

NYM · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Jul 21at MIL4 − 0W
Jul 20at MIL3 − 8L
Jul 19at PHI6 − 1W
Jul 18at PHI1 − 6L
Jul 16at PHI4 − 1W
Jul 12vs BOS2 − 3L
Jul 11vs BOS0 − 4L
Jul 10vs BOS2 − 6L
Jul 9vs KC7 − 3W
Jul 8vs KC6 − 2W

MIL · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Jul 21vs NYM0 − 4L
Jul 20vs NYM8 − 3W
Jul 19vs MIA3 − 1W
Jul 18vs MIA8 − 6W
Jul 17vs MIA2 − 1W
Jul 12at PIT5 − 14L
Jul 11at PIT2 − 3L
Jul 11at PIT6 − 7L
Jul 9at STL8 − 4W
Jul 8at STL1 − 5L