bayesRatings

Red Sox at Mets

MLB · Friday, Jul 10 · 6:50 PM CT · Citi Field · Final BOS 6 – NYM 2
← MLB / Jul 10

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
BOS2000002026111
NYM0010000012101
Team box
BOS·NYM
11
hits
10
2
home runs
1
5
walks
1
10
strikeouts
3
135
pitches thrown
174
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Wilyer AbreuBOS3-4212
Anthony SeiglerBOS2-5212
Brett BatyNYM3-4211
Masataka YoshidaBOS2-4002
Tsung-Che ChengBOS2-4100
Juan SotoNYM1-3001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Sonny Gray (W)BOS6.05113
Nolan McLean (L)NYM6.05027

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYM +5
BOS +5
123456789
largest lead: NYM 0 · BOS 5lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BOS 52%, NYM 48% · Updated Jul 10

Expected margin
BOS by 0.5
Expected score
BOS 4.7 – 4.2 NYM
Expected total
8.9
Red SoxThe matchupMets
−107Our fair odds+107
4.7Expected runs4.2
+0.05Power rating−0.08
4.1Runs / game4.2
3.9Allowed / game4.8
8.2Hits / game7.9
0.89Home runs / game1.17
3.0Walks drawn / game3.1
43−48Season record40−54
8−2Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BOS chance · NYM chance
Our model fair51.6%48.4%
Kalshi44.7%59.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:50 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BOSBoston Red Sox−10752%+12444.7%———
NYMNew York Mets+10748%−14859.7%———
SpreadBOS by 0.5
BOSBoston Red Sox−0.5our margin————
NYMNew York Mets+0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.9
Over8.9our total————
Under8.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Boston Red Sox by 0.5 expected
Boston Red Sox by 13 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 12 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 11 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 10 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 9 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 8 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 7 runs: 3%Boston Red Sox by 6 runs: 4%Boston Red Sox by 5 runs: 5%Boston Red Sox by 4 runs: 6%Boston Red Sox by 3 runs: 8%Boston Red Sox by 2 runs: 10%Boston Red Sox by 1 run: 11%New York Mets by 1 run: 17%New York Mets by 2 runs: 9%New York Mets by 3 runs: 6%New York Mets by 4 runs: 5%New York Mets by 5 runs: 4%New York Mets by 6 runs: 2%New York Mets by 7 runs: 2%New York Mets by 8 runs: 1%New York Mets by 9 runs: 1%New York Mets by 10 runs: <1%New York Mets by 11 runs: <1%New York Mets by 12 runs: <1%New York Mets by 13 runs: <1%
← BOS wins byNYM wins by →
Boston Red Sox wins by 2 or more41%
Boston Red Sox wins by 3 or more30%
New York Mets wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.569%
Total over 8.549%
Total over 10.532%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
BOSSonny Gray SP · last 3 starts: 20.1 IP, 0.89 ERA, 27 Kstarted
NYMNolan McLean SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 4.00 ERA, 21 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BOS·NYM
Jul 9 at CHW
last game
Jul 9 vs KC
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
7th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 91+ games
BOS·NYM
+0.05
rating (0 = average)
−0.08
4.1
runs / game
4.2
3.9
runs allowed / game
4.8
43−48
season record
40−54
17−27
home record
21−25
26−21
away record
19−29
W6
streak
W2
8−2
last 10
5−5
8.2
hits / game
7.9
0.89
home runs / game
1.17
3.0
walks drawn / game
3.1
8.2
batter strikeouts / game
8.2
8.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.1
0.44
errors / game
0.66

Rating Trend

BOS · NYM · 107 days
Boston Red SoxNew York Mets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYM 5−5
May 21, 2025at BOSNYM 5 − 1
May 20, 2025at BOSBOS 2 − 0
May 19, 2025at BOSBOS 3 − 1
Sep 4, 2024at NYMNYM 8 − 3
Sep 3, 2024at NYMNYM 7 − 2
Sep 2, 2024at NYMNYM 4 − 1
Jul 23, 2023at BOSBOS 6 − 1
Jul 22, 2023at BOSBOS 8 − 6
Jul 21, 2023at BOSNYM 5 − 4
Sep 22, 2021at BOSBOS 12 − 5

BOS · Last 10

8−2 · streak W6
Jul 9at CHW2 − 1W
Jul 8at CHW5 − 0W
Jul 7at CHW8 − 1W
Jul 5at LAA7 − 5W
Jul 4at LAA8 − 1W
Jul 3at LAA5 − 2W
Jul 1vs WSH2 − 10L
Jun 30vs WSH1 − 8L
Jun 29vs WSH6 − 3W
Jun 28vs NYY5 − 4W

NYM · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Jul 9vs KC7 − 3W
Jul 8vs KC6 − 2W
Jul 7vs KC12 − 16L
Jul 6at ATL7 − 6W
Jul 5at ATL10 − 9W
Jul 4at ATL3 − 14L
Jul 3at ATL3 − 5L
Jul 1at TOR3 − 9L
Jun 30at TOR3 − 0W
Jun 29at TOR1 − 2L