bayesRatings

Mets at Phillies

MLB · Thursday, Jul 16 · 5:00 PM CT · Citizens Bank Park · Final NYM 4 – PHI 1
← MLB / Jul 16

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
NYM001000201471
PHI000000010141
Team box
NYM·PHI
7
hits
4
3
home runs
1
6
walks
1
8
strikeouts
9
120
pitches thrown
138
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Francisco AlvarezNYM2-3222
Brett BatyNYM2-4111
Trea TurnerPHI1-4111
A.J. EwingNYM1-5001
Juan SotoNYM1-1000
Carson BengeNYM1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Christian Scott (W)NYM5.23007
Devin Williams (S)NYM1.00001
Aaron Nola (L)PHI6.06346

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PHI +3
NYM +3
123456789
largest lead: PHI 0 · NYM 3lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYM 44%, PHI 56% · Updated Jul 16

Expected margin
PHI by 0.6
Expected score
PHI 4.7 – 4.1 NYM
Expected total
8.8
MetsThe matchupPhillies
+130Our fair odds−130
4.1Expected runs4.7
−0.10Power rating+0.11
4.1Runs / game4.4
4.8Allowed / game4.5
7.8Hits / game7.9
1.15Home runs / game1.28
3.1Walks drawn / game3.0
40−57Season record54−43
4−6Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYM chance · PHI chance
Our model fair43.5%56.5%
Kalshi48.7%55.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:00 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYMNew York Mets+13044%+10548.7%———
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−13056%−12655.7%———
SpreadPHI by 0.6
NYMNew York Mets+0.6our margin————
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.8
Over8.8our total————
Under8.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Philadelphia Phillies by 0.6 expected
New York Mets by 13 runs: <1%New York Mets by 12 runs: <1%New York Mets by 11 runs: <1%New York Mets by 10 runs: <1%New York Mets by 9 runs: 1%New York Mets by 8 runs: 1%New York Mets by 7 runs: 2%New York Mets by 6 runs: 2%New York Mets by 5 runs: 4%New York Mets by 4 runs: 5%New York Mets by 3 runs: 6%New York Mets by 2 runs: 9%New York Mets by 1 run: 12%Philadelphia Phillies by 1 run: 16%Philadelphia Phillies by 2 runs: 10%Philadelphia Phillies by 3 runs: 8%Philadelphia Phillies by 4 runs: 6%Philadelphia Phillies by 5 runs: 5%Philadelphia Phillies by 6 runs: 4%Philadelphia Phillies by 7 runs: 3%Philadelphia Phillies by 8 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 9 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 10 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 11 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 12 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 13 runs: <1%
← NYM wins byPHI wins by →
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 2 or more41%
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 3 or more30%
New York Mets wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.8 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.568%
Total over 8.548%
Total over 10.531%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
NYMChristian Scott SP · last 3 starts: 13.1 IP, 3.38 ERA, 18 Kstarted
PHIAaron Nola SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 6.61 ERA, 20 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYM·PHI
Jul 12 vs BOS
last game
Jul 12 at DET
3 days
days of rest
3 days
4
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 97+ games
NYM·PHI
−0.10
rating (0 = average)
+0.11
4.1
runs / game
4.4
4.8
runs allowed / game
4.5
40−57
season record
54−43
21−28
home record
25−21
19−29
away record
29−22
L3
streak
W2
4−6
last 10
5−5
7.8
hits / game
7.9
1.15
home runs / game
1.28
3.1
walks drawn / game
3.0
8.2
batter strikeouts / game
8.8
9.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.8
0.67
errors / game
0.48

Rating Trend

NYM · PHI · 110 days
New York MetsPhiladelphia Phillies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PHI 8−2
Jun 28at NYMPHI 5 − 4
Jun 27at NYMNYM 6 − 2
Jun 26at NYMPHI 2 − 1
Jun 21at PHIPHI 6 − 2
Jun 20at PHIPHI 15 − 3
Jun 18at PHINYM 6 − 4
Sep 11, 2025at PHIPHI 6 − 4
Sep 10, 2025at PHIPHI 11 − 3
Sep 9, 2025at PHIPHI 9 − 3
Sep 8, 2025at PHIPHI 1 − 0

NYM · Last 10

4−6 · streak L3
Jul 12vs BOS2 − 3L
Jul 11vs BOS0 − 4L
Jul 10vs BOS2 − 6L
Jul 9vs KC7 − 3W
Jul 8vs KC6 − 2W
Jul 7vs KC12 − 16L
Jul 6at ATL7 − 6W
Jul 5at ATL10 − 9W
Jul 4at ATL3 − 14L
Jul 3at ATL3 − 5L

PHI · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Jul 12at DET5 − 0W
Jul 11at DET4 − 2W
Jul 10at DET2 − 10L
Jul 9at CIN1 − 0W
Jul 8at CIN5 − 11L
Jul 7at CIN4 − 1W
Jul 6at KC1 − 15L
Jul 5at KC2 − 5L
Jul 4at KC6 − 1W
Jul 2vs PIT1 − 6L