bayesRatings

Red Sox at Mets

MLB · Sunday, Jul 12 · 12:40 PM CT · Citi Field · Final BOS 3 – NYM 2
← MLB / Jul 12

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team12345678910THE
BOS0000000021340
NYM1000010000262
Team box
BOS·NYM
4
hits
6
0
home runs
1
4
walks
1
6
strikeouts
14
149
pitches thrown
124
0
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Francisco LindorNYM2-4112
Andruw MonasterioBOS1-2001
Jarren DuranBOS1-4001
Connor WongBOS1-3000
Anthony SeiglerBOS0-4001
Ceddanne RafaelaBOS1-5100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Payton TolleBOS3.23117
Aroldis Chapman (W)BOS1.01001
Garrett Whitlock (S)BOS1.00001
Zac ThorntonNYM7.02025
Brooks Raley (L)NYM1.00000

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYM +3
BOS +3
12345678910
largest lead: NYM 2 · BOS 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BOS 53%, NYM 47% · Updated Jul 12

Expected margin
BOS by 0.6
Expected score
BOS 4.7 – 4.1 NYM
Expected total
8.8
Red SoxThe matchupMets
−111Our fair odds+111
4.7Expected runs4.1
+0.07Power rating−0.09
4.1Runs / game4.1
3.8Allowed / game4.8
8.2Hits / game7.9
0.91Home runs / game1.16
3.0Walks drawn / game3.1
45−48Season record40−56
8−2Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BOS chance · NYM chance
Our model fair52.6%47.4%
Kalshi53.7%50.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BOSBoston Red Sox−11153%−11653.7%———
NYMNew York Mets+11147%−10350.7%———
SpreadBOS by 0.6
BOSBoston Red Sox−0.6our margin————
NYMNew York Mets+0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.8
Over8.8our total————
Under8.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Boston Red Sox by 0.6 expected
Boston Red Sox by 14 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 13 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 12 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 11 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 10 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 9 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 8 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 7 runs: 3%Boston Red Sox by 6 runs: 4%Boston Red Sox by 5 runs: 5%Boston Red Sox by 4 runs: 6%Boston Red Sox by 3 runs: 8%Boston Red Sox by 2 runs: 10%Boston Red Sox by 1 run: 11%New York Mets by 1 run: 17%New York Mets by 2 runs: 9%New York Mets by 3 runs: 6%New York Mets by 4 runs: 5%New York Mets by 5 runs: 3%New York Mets by 6 runs: 2%New York Mets by 7 runs: 2%New York Mets by 8 runs: 1%New York Mets by 9 runs: 1%New York Mets by 10 runs: <1%New York Mets by 11 runs: <1%New York Mets by 12 runs: <1%New York Mets by 13 runs: <1%New York Mets by 14 runs: <1%
← BOS wins byNYM wins by →
Boston Red Sox wins by 2 or more41%
Boston Red Sox wins by 3 or more31%
New York Mets wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.8 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.568%
Total over 8.548%
Total over 10.531%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
BOSPayton Tolle SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 3.38 ERA, 18 Kstarted
NYMZac Thornton SP · last 2 starts: 10.1 IP, 4.35 ERA, 10 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BOS·NYM
Jul 11 at NYM
last game
Jul 11 vs BOS
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
9th straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 93+ games
BOS·NYM
+0.07
rating (0 = average)
−0.09
4.1
runs / game
4.1
3.8
runs allowed / game
4.8
45−48
season record
40−56
17−27
home record
21−27
28−21
away record
19−29
W8
streak
L2
8−2
last 10
4−6
8.2
hits / game
7.9
0.91
home runs / game
1.16
3.0
walks drawn / game
3.1
8.3
batter strikeouts / game
8.2
8.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.2
0.44
errors / game
0.66

Rating Trend

BOS · NYM · 109 days
Boston Red SoxNew York Mets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYM 4−6
Jul 11at NYMBOS 4 − 0
Jul 10at NYMBOS 6 − 2
May 21, 2025at BOSNYM 5 − 1
May 20, 2025at BOSBOS 2 − 0
May 19, 2025at BOSBOS 3 − 1
Sep 4, 2024at NYMNYM 8 − 3
Sep 3, 2024at NYMNYM 7 − 2
Sep 2, 2024at NYMNYM 4 − 1
Jul 23, 2023at BOSBOS 6 − 1
Jul 22, 2023at BOSBOS 8 − 6

BOS · Last 10

8−2 · streak W8
Jul 11at NYM4 − 0W
Jul 10at NYM6 − 2W
Jul 9at CHW2 − 1W
Jul 8at CHW5 − 0W
Jul 7at CHW8 − 1W
Jul 5at LAA7 − 5W
Jul 4at LAA8 − 1W
Jul 3at LAA5 − 2W
Jul 1vs WSH2 − 10L
Jun 30vs WSH1 − 8L

NYM · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Jul 11vs BOS0 − 4L
Jul 10vs BOS2 − 6L
Jul 9vs KC7 − 3W
Jul 8vs KC6 − 2W
Jul 7vs KC12 − 16L
Jul 6at ATL7 − 6W
Jul 5at ATL10 − 9W
Jul 4at ATL3 − 14L
Jul 3at ATL3 − 5L
Jul 1at TOR3 − 9L