bayesRatings

Red Sox at Mets

MLB · Saturday, Jul 11 · 3:10 PM CT · Citi Field · Final BOS 4 – NYM 0
← MLB / Jul 11

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
BOS000200020460
NYM000000000030
Team box
BOS·NYM
6
hits
3
2
home runs
0
5
walks
7
9
strikeouts
8
155
pitches thrown
150
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Andruw MonasterioBOS2-3112
Masataka YoshidaBOS1-3112
Caleb DurbinBOS2-3200
Francisco AlvarezNYM2-3000
Ceddanne RafaelaBOS1-5000
Jorge PolancoNYM1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Eduardo RiveraBOS3.21023
Jovani Moran (W)BOS1.20011
Freddy Peralta (L)NYM4.13256

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYM +4
BOS +4
123456789
largest lead: NYM 0 · BOS 4lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BOS 52%, NYM 48% · Updated Jul 11

Expected margin
BOS by 0.5
Expected score
BOS 4.7 – 4.2 NYM
Expected total
8.9
Red SoxThe matchupMets
−108Our fair odds+108
4.7Expected runs4.2
+0.06Power rating−0.08
4.1Runs / game4.2
3.9Allowed / game4.8
8.2Hits / game7.9
0.90Home runs / game1.17
3.0Walks drawn / game3.1
44−48Season record40−55
8−2Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BOS chance · NYM chance
Our model fair52.0%48.0%
Kalshi45.7%59.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BOSBoston Red Sox−10852%+11945.7%———
NYMNew York Mets+10848%−14859.7%———
SpreadBOS by 0.5
BOSBoston Red Sox−0.5our margin————
NYMNew York Mets+0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.9
Over8.9our total————
Under8.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Boston Red Sox by 0.5 expected
Boston Red Sox by 13 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 12 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 11 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 10 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 9 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 8 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 7 runs: 3%Boston Red Sox by 6 runs: 4%Boston Red Sox by 5 runs: 5%Boston Red Sox by 4 runs: 6%Boston Red Sox by 3 runs: 8%Boston Red Sox by 2 runs: 10%Boston Red Sox by 1 run: 12%New York Mets by 1 run: 16%New York Mets by 2 runs: 9%New York Mets by 3 runs: 6%New York Mets by 4 runs: 5%New York Mets by 5 runs: 4%New York Mets by 6 runs: 2%New York Mets by 7 runs: 2%New York Mets by 8 runs: 1%New York Mets by 9 runs: 1%New York Mets by 10 runs: <1%New York Mets by 11 runs: <1%New York Mets by 12 runs: <1%New York Mets by 13 runs: <1%
← BOS wins byNYM wins by →
Boston Red Sox wins by 2 or more41%
Boston Red Sox wins by 3 or more30%
New York Mets wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.569%
Total over 8.549%
Total over 10.532%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
BOSEduardo Rivera SP · no recent starts on recordstarted
NYMFreddy Peralta SP · last 3 starts: 14.1 IP, 3.77 ERA, 15 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BOS·NYM
Jul 10 at NYM
last game
Jul 10 vs BOS
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
8th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 92+ games
BOS·NYM
+0.06
rating (0 = average)
−0.08
4.1
runs / game
4.2
3.9
runs allowed / game
4.8
44−48
season record
40−55
17−27
home record
21−26
27−21
away record
19−29
W7
streak
L1
8−2
last 10
5−5
8.2
hits / game
7.9
0.90
home runs / game
1.17
3.0
walks drawn / game
3.1
8.3
batter strikeouts / game
8.2
8.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.2
0.45
errors / game
0.66

Rating Trend

BOS · NYM · 108 days
Boston Red SoxNew York Mets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYM 5−5
Jul 10at NYMBOS 6 − 2
May 21, 2025at BOSNYM 5 − 1
May 20, 2025at BOSBOS 2 − 0
May 19, 2025at BOSBOS 3 − 1
Sep 4, 2024at NYMNYM 8 − 3
Sep 3, 2024at NYMNYM 7 − 2
Sep 2, 2024at NYMNYM 4 − 1
Jul 23, 2023at BOSBOS 6 − 1
Jul 22, 2023at BOSBOS 8 − 6
Jul 21, 2023at BOSNYM 5 − 4

BOS · Last 10

8−2 · streak W7
Jul 10at NYM6 − 2W
Jul 9at CHW2 − 1W
Jul 8at CHW5 − 0W
Jul 7at CHW8 − 1W
Jul 5at LAA7 − 5W
Jul 4at LAA8 − 1W
Jul 3at LAA5 − 2W
Jul 1vs WSH2 − 10L
Jun 30vs WSH1 − 8L
Jun 29vs WSH6 − 3W

NYM · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Jul 10vs BOS2 − 6L
Jul 9vs KC7 − 3W
Jul 8vs KC6 − 2W
Jul 7vs KC12 − 16L
Jul 6at ATL7 − 6W
Jul 5at ATL10 − 9W
Jul 4at ATL3 − 14L
Jul 3at ATL3 − 5L
Jul 1at TOR3 − 9L
Jun 30at TOR3 − 0W