bayesRatings

Phillies at Tigers

MLB · Friday, Jul 10 · 5:40 PM CT · Comerica Park · Final PHI 2 – DET 10
← MLB / Jul 10

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
PHI001100000241
DET002005301081
Team box
PHI·DET
4
hits
8
1
home runs
3
3
walks
5
7
strikeouts
9
140
pitches thrown
130
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Derek HillPHI3-4112
Spencer TorkelsonDET1-4112
Kevin McGonigleDET1-5112
Colt KeithDET1-5111
James OutmanDET1-4102
Eduardo ValenciaDET2-4101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Aaron NolaPHI5.03228
Tim Mayza (L)PHI1.02421
Jack Flaherty (W)DET6.02236

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DET +8
PHI +8
123456789
largest lead: DET 8 · PHI 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PHI 51%, DET 49% · Updated Jul 10

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
DET 4.0 – 4.0 PHI
Expected total
8.0
PhilliesThe matchupTigers
−104Our fair odds+104
4.0Expected runs4.0
+0.11Power rating+0.01
4.4Runs / game4.2
4.5Allowed / game4.0
8.0Hits / game7.8
1.31Home runs / game1.19
3.0Walks drawn / game3.6
52−42Season record43−50
5−5Last 108−2

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PHI chance · DET chance
Our model fair50.9%49.1%
Kalshi50.7%54.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−10451%−10350.7%———
DETDetroit Tigers+10449%−12154.7%———
Spreadabout even
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies+0.1our margin————
DETDetroit Tigers−0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.0
Over8.0our total————
Under8.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Philadelphia Phillies by 12 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 11 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 10 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 9 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 8 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 7 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 6 runs: 3%Philadelphia Phillies by 5 runs: 4%Philadelphia Phillies by 4 runs: 5%Philadelphia Phillies by 3 runs: 7%Philadelphia Phillies by 2 runs: 10%Philadelphia Phillies by 1 run: 17%Detroit Tigers by 1 run: 13%Detroit Tigers by 2 runs: 10%Detroit Tigers by 3 runs: 7%Detroit Tigers by 4 runs: 6%Detroit Tigers by 5 runs: 4%Detroit Tigers by 6 runs: 3%Detroit Tigers by 7 runs: 2%Detroit Tigers by 8 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 9 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 10 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 11 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 12 runs: <1%
← PHI wins byDET wins by →
Detroit Tigers wins by 2 or more36%
Detroit Tigers wins by 3 or more26%
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.561%
Total over 8.541%
Total over 10.525%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
PHIAaron Nola SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 6.61 ERA, 17 Kstarted
DETJack Flaherty SP · last 3 starts: 13.2 IP, 1.32 ERA, 15 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PHI·DET
Jul 9 at CIN
last game
Jul 9 vs ATH
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
5
7th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 93+ games
PHI·DET
+0.11
rating (0 = average)
+0.01
4.4
runs / game
4.2
4.5
runs allowed / game
4.0
52−42
season record
43−50
25−21
home record
26−21
27−21
away record
17−29
W1
streak
W5
5−5
last 10
8−2
8.0
hits / game
7.8
1.31
home runs / game
1.19
3.0
walks drawn / game
3.6
8.8
batter strikeouts / game
8.7
9.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.2
0.48
errors / game
0.44

Rating Trend

PHI · DET · 107 days
Philadelphia PhilliesDetroit Tigers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · DET 2−7
Aug 3, 2025at PHIPHI 2 − 0
Aug 2, 2025at PHIDET 7 − 5
Aug 1, 2025at PHIPHI 5 − 4
Jun 26, 2024at DETPHI 6 − 2
Jun 25, 2024at DETDET 4 − 1
Jun 24, 2024at DETPHI 8 − 1
Jun 8, 2023at PHIPHI 3 − 2
Jun 6, 2023at PHIPHI 1 − 0
Jun 5, 2023at PHIPHI 8 − 3

PHI · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Jul 9at CIN1 − 0W
Jul 8at CIN5 − 11L
Jul 7at CIN4 − 1W
Jul 6at KC1 − 15L
Jul 5at KC2 − 5L
Jul 4at KC6 − 1W
Jul 2vs PIT1 − 6L
Jul 1vs PIT10 − 6W
Jun 30vs PIT8 − 0W
Jun 29vs PIT7 − 11L

DET · Last 10

8−2 · streak W5
Jul 9vs ATH4 − 1W
Jul 8vs ATH6 − 1W
Jul 7vs ATH6 − 2W
Jul 5at TEX6 − 3W
Jul 4at TEX3 − 0W
Jul 2at TEX4 − 10L
Jul 1at NYY6 − 2W
Jun 30at NYY9 − 3W
Jun 29at NYY7 − 3W
Jun 28vs HOU5 − 7L