bayesRatings

Phillies at Tigers

MLB · Sunday, Jul 12 · 12:40 PM CT · Comerica Park · Final PHI 5 – DET 0
← MLB / Jul 12

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
PHI001004000591
DET000000000021
Team box
PHI·DET
9
hits
2
0
home runs
0
3
walks
2
12
strikeouts
14
139
pitches thrown
171
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
J.T. RealmutoPHI2-3203
Kyle SchwarberPHI2-5001
Bryson StottPHI2-4001
Zach McKinstryDET1-3000
Riley GreeneDET1-4000
Bryce HarperPHI1-5100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Zack Wheeler (W)PHI6.020210
Tarik Skubal (L)DET5.04215

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DET +5
PHI +5
123456789
largest lead: DET 0 · PHI 5lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PHI 50%, DET 50% · Updated Jul 12

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
DET 4.1 – 3.9 PHI
Expected total
8.1
PhilliesThe matchupTigers
−101Our fair odds+101
3.9Expected runs4.1
+0.10Power rating+0.03
4.4Runs / game4.3
4.5Allowed / game4.0
7.9Hits / game7.9
1.29Home runs / game1.21
3.0Walks drawn / game3.6
53−43Season record44−51
5−5Last 108−2

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PHI chance · DET chance
Our model fair50.3%49.7%
Kalshi47.7%56.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−10150%+10947.7%———
DETDetroit Tigers+10150%−13156.7%———
Spreadabout even
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies+0.2our margin————
DETDetroit Tigers−0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.1
Over8.1our total————
Under8.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Philadelphia Phillies by 12 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 11 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 10 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 9 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 8 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 7 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 6 runs: 3%Philadelphia Phillies by 5 runs: 4%Philadelphia Phillies by 4 runs: 5%Philadelphia Phillies by 3 runs: 7%Philadelphia Phillies by 2 runs: 10%Philadelphia Phillies by 1 run: 17%Detroit Tigers by 1 run: 13%Detroit Tigers by 2 runs: 11%Detroit Tigers by 3 runs: 8%Detroit Tigers by 4 runs: 6%Detroit Tigers by 5 runs: 4%Detroit Tigers by 6 runs: 3%Detroit Tigers by 7 runs: 2%Detroit Tigers by 8 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 9 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 10 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 11 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 12 runs: <1%
← PHI wins byDET wins by →
Detroit Tigers wins by 2 or more37%
Detroit Tigers wins by 3 or more27%
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 2 or more33%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.1 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.562%
Total over 8.542%
Total over 10.525%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
PHIZack Wheeler SP · last 3 starts: 18.2 IP, 2.89 ERA, 29 Kstarted
DETTarik Skubal SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 3.18 ERA, 27 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PHI·DET
Jul 11 at DET
last game
Jul 11 vs PHI
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
9th straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 95+ games
PHI·DET
+0.10
rating (0 = average)
+0.03
4.4
runs / game
4.3
4.5
runs allowed / game
4.0
53−43
season record
44−51
25−21
home record
27−22
28−22
away record
17−29
W1
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
8−2
7.9
hits / game
7.9
1.29
home runs / game
1.21
3.0
walks drawn / game
3.6
8.7
batter strikeouts / game
8.7
9.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.2
0.48
errors / game
0.45

Rating Trend

PHI · DET · 109 days
Philadelphia PhilliesDetroit Tigers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · DET 3−7
Jul 11at DETPHI 4 − 2
Jul 10at DETDET 10 − 2
Aug 3, 2025at PHIPHI 2 − 0
Aug 2, 2025at PHIDET 7 − 5
Aug 1, 2025at PHIPHI 5 − 4
Jun 26, 2024at DETPHI 6 − 2
Jun 25, 2024at DETDET 4 − 1
Jun 24, 2024at DETPHI 8 − 1
Jun 8, 2023at PHIPHI 3 − 2
Jun 6, 2023at PHIPHI 1 − 0

PHI · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Jul 11at DET4 − 2W
Jul 10at DET2 − 10L
Jul 9at CIN1 − 0W
Jul 8at CIN5 − 11L
Jul 7at CIN4 − 1W
Jul 6at KC1 − 15L
Jul 5at KC2 − 5L
Jul 4at KC6 − 1W
Jul 2vs PIT1 − 6L
Jul 1vs PIT10 − 6W

DET · Last 10

8−2 · streak L1
Jul 11vs PHI2 − 4L
Jul 10vs PHI10 − 2W
Jul 9vs ATH4 − 1W
Jul 8vs ATH6 − 1W
Jul 7vs ATH6 − 2W
Jul 5at TEX6 − 3W
Jul 4at TEX3 − 0W
Jul 2at TEX4 − 10L
Jul 1at NYY6 − 2W
Jun 30at NYY9 − 3W