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Mets at Brewers

MLB · Tuesday, Jul 21 · 6:40 PM CT · American Family Field · Final NYM 4 – MIL 0
← MLB / Jul 21

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
NYM0100200104130
MIL000000000040
Team box
NYM·MIL
13
hits
4
2
home runs
0
4
walks
1
7
strikeouts
3
126
pitches thrown
176
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jared YoungNYM2-4111
Carson BengeNYM2-5002
Luis Robert Jr.NYM1-5111
Francisco LindorNYM3-4100
Luis TorrensNYM2-4000
Jake BauersMIL1-1000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Zac Thornton (W)NYM6.03012
Brandon Sproat (L)MIL4.24244

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIL +4
NYM +4
123456789
largest lead: MIL 0 · NYM 4lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYM 37%, MIL 63% · Updated Jul 21

Expected margin
MIL by 1.5
Expected score
MIL 5.1 – 3.6 NYM
Expected total
8.7
MetsThe matchupBrewers
+167Our fair odds−167
3.6Expected runs5.1
−0.09Power rating+0.37
4.1Runs / game5.1
4.7Allowed / game3.7
7.8Hits / game8.6
1.16Home runs / game0.94
3.1Walks drawn / game4.2
42−59Season record63−37
4−6Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYM chance · MIL chance
Our model fair37.4%62.6%
Kalshi46.7%57.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYMNew York Mets+16737%+11446.7%———
MILMilwaukee Brewers−16763%−13757.7%———
SpreadMIL by 1.5
NYMNew York Mets+1.5our margin————
MILMilwaukee Brewers−1.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.7
Over8.7our total————
Under8.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Milwaukee Brewers by 1.5 expected
New York Mets by 15 runs: <1%New York Mets by 14 runs: <1%New York Mets by 13 runs: <1%New York Mets by 12 runs: <1%New York Mets by 11 runs: <1%New York Mets by 10 runs: <1%New York Mets by 9 runs: <1%New York Mets by 8 runs: 1%New York Mets by 7 runs: 1%New York Mets by 6 runs: 2%New York Mets by 5 runs: 3%New York Mets by 4 runs: 4%New York Mets by 3 runs: 5%New York Mets by 2 runs: 8%New York Mets by 1 run: 13%Milwaukee Brewers by 1 run: 14%Milwaukee Brewers by 2 runs: 11%Milwaukee Brewers by 3 runs: 9%Milwaukee Brewers by 4 runs: 7%Milwaukee Brewers by 5 runs: 6%Milwaukee Brewers by 6 runs: 4%Milwaukee Brewers by 7 runs: 3%Milwaukee Brewers by 8 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 9 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 10 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 11 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 12 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 13 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 14 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 15 runs: <1%
← NYM wins byMIL wins by →
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 2 or more49%
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 3 or more38%
New York Mets wins by 2 or more24%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.7 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.567%
Total over 8.547%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
NYMZac Thornton SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 2.60 ERA, 15 Kstarted
MILBrandon Sproat SP · last 3 starts: 12.1 IP, 3.65 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYM·MIL
Jul 20 at MIL
last game
Jul 20 vs NYM
0 days
days of rest
0 days
4
games in last 7 days
4
5th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 100+ games
NYM·MIL
−0.09
rating (0 = average)
+0.37
4.1
runs / game
5.1
4.7
runs allowed / game
3.7
42−59
season record
63−37
21−28
home record
33−18
21−31
away record
30−19
L1
streak
W4
4−6
last 10
6−4
7.8
hits / game
8.6
1.16
home runs / game
0.94
3.1
walks drawn / game
4.2
8.3
batter strikeouts / game
8.3
9.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.8
0.68
errors / game
0.41

Rating Trend

NYM · MIL · 115 days
New York MetsMilwaukee Brewers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIL 6−4
Jul 20at MILMIL 8 − 3
Aug 10, 2025at MILMIL 7 − 6
Aug 9, 2025at MILMIL 7 − 4
Aug 8, 2025at MILMIL 3 − 2
Jul 3, 2025at NYMNYM 3 − 2
Jul 2, 2025at NYMNYM 7 − 3
Jul 2, 2025at NYMMIL 7 − 2
Oct 3, 2024at MILNYM 4 − 2post
Oct 2, 2024at MILMIL 5 − 3post
Oct 1, 2024at MILNYM 8 − 4post

NYM · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Jul 20at MIL3 − 8L
Jul 19at PHI6 − 1W
Jul 18at PHI1 − 6L
Jul 16at PHI4 − 1W
Jul 12vs BOS2 − 3L
Jul 11vs BOS0 − 4L
Jul 10vs BOS2 − 6L
Jul 9vs KC7 − 3W
Jul 8vs KC6 − 2W
Jul 7vs KC12 − 16L

MIL · Last 10

6−4 · streak W4
Jul 20vs NYM8 − 3W
Jul 19vs MIA3 − 1W
Jul 18vs MIA8 − 6W
Jul 17vs MIA2 − 1W
Jul 12at PIT5 − 14L
Jul 11at PIT2 − 3L
Jul 11at PIT6 − 7L
Jul 9at STL8 − 4W
Jul 8at STL1 − 5L
Jul 7at STL10 − 2W