bayesRatings

Mets at Phillies

MLB · Saturday, Jul 18 · 2:05 PM CT · Citizens Bank Park · Final NYM 1 – PHI 6
← MLB / Jul 18

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
NYM010000000133
PHI200022006121
Team box
NYM·PHI
3
hits
12
1
home runs
2
2
walks
5
11
strikeouts
10
163
pitches thrown
146
3
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Trea TurnerPHI3-4311
Tyrone TaylorNYM2-3111
Kyle SchwarberPHI1-3212
Bryce HarperPHI1-4002
Alec BohmPHI2-5001
J.T. RealmutoPHI2-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Sean Manaea (L)NYM4.27427
Jesus Luzardo (W)PHI5.02127

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PHI +5
NYM +5
123456789
largest lead: PHI 5 · NYM 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYM 44%, PHI 56% · Updated Jul 18

Expected margin
PHI by 0.6
Expected score
PHI 4.6 – 4.0 NYM
Expected total
8.7
MetsThe matchupPhillies
+126Our fair odds−126
4.0Expected runs4.6
−0.08Power rating+0.10
4.1Runs / game4.3
4.7Allowed / game4.5
7.8Hits / game7.9
1.17Home runs / game1.28
3.1Walks drawn / game2.9
41−57Season record54−44
5−5Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYM chance · PHI chance
Our model fair44.2%55.8%
Kalshi40.7%63.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 2:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYMNew York Mets+12644%+14640.7%———
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−12656%−17563.6%———
SpreadPHI by 0.6
NYMNew York Mets+0.6our margin————
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.7
Over8.7our total————
Under8.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Philadelphia Phillies by 0.6 expected
New York Mets by 13 runs: <1%New York Mets by 12 runs: <1%New York Mets by 11 runs: <1%New York Mets by 10 runs: <1%New York Mets by 9 runs: 1%New York Mets by 8 runs: 1%New York Mets by 7 runs: 2%New York Mets by 6 runs: 2%New York Mets by 5 runs: 3%New York Mets by 4 runs: 5%New York Mets by 3 runs: 6%New York Mets by 2 runs: 9%New York Mets by 1 run: 13%Philadelphia Phillies by 1 run: 15%Philadelphia Phillies by 2 runs: 10%Philadelphia Phillies by 3 runs: 8%Philadelphia Phillies by 4 runs: 6%Philadelphia Phillies by 5 runs: 5%Philadelphia Phillies by 6 runs: 4%Philadelphia Phillies by 7 runs: 3%Philadelphia Phillies by 8 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 9 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 10 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 11 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 12 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 13 runs: <1%
← NYM wins byPHI wins by →
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 2 or more41%
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 3 or more30%
New York Mets wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.7 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.567%
Total over 8.547%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
NYMSean Manaea SP · last 3 starts: 17.2 IP, 3.57 ERA, 14 Kstarted
PHIJesus Luzardo SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 1.00 ERA, 26 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYM·PHI
Jul 16 at PHI
last game
Jul 16 vs NYM
1 day
days of rest
1 day
3
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 98+ games
NYM·PHI
−0.08
rating (0 = average)
+0.10
4.1
runs / game
4.3
4.7
runs allowed / game
4.5
41−57
season record
54−44
21−28
home record
25−22
20−29
away record
29−22
W1
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
5−5
7.8
hits / game
7.9
1.17
home runs / game
1.28
3.1
walks drawn / game
2.9
8.2
batter strikeouts / game
8.8
9.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.8
0.67
errors / game
0.49

Rating Trend

NYM · PHI · 112 days
New York MetsPhiladelphia Phillies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PHI 7−3
Jul 16at PHINYM 4 − 1
Jun 28at NYMPHI 5 − 4
Jun 27at NYMNYM 6 − 2
Jun 26at NYMPHI 2 − 1
Jun 21at PHIPHI 6 − 2
Jun 20at PHIPHI 15 − 3
Jun 18at PHINYM 6 − 4
Sep 11, 2025at PHIPHI 6 − 4
Sep 10, 2025at PHIPHI 11 − 3
Sep 9, 2025at PHIPHI 9 − 3

NYM · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Jul 16at PHI4 − 1W
Jul 12vs BOS2 − 3L
Jul 11vs BOS0 − 4L
Jul 10vs BOS2 − 6L
Jul 9vs KC7 − 3W
Jul 8vs KC6 − 2W
Jul 7vs KC12 − 16L
Jul 6at ATL7 − 6W
Jul 5at ATL10 − 9W
Jul 4at ATL3 − 14L

PHI · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Jul 16vs NYM1 − 4L
Jul 12at DET5 − 0W
Jul 11at DET4 − 2W
Jul 10at DET2 − 10L
Jul 9at CIN1 − 0W
Jul 8at CIN5 − 11L
Jul 7at CIN4 − 1W
Jul 6at KC1 − 15L
Jul 5at KC2 − 5L
Jul 4at KC6 − 1W