bayesRatings

Mets at Phillies

MLB · Sunday, Jul 19 · 12:35 PM CT · Citizens Bank Park · Final NYM 6 – PHI 1
← MLB / Jul 19

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
NYM2300010006140
PHI000000100160
Team box
NYM·PHI
14
hits
6
1
home runs
1
7
walks
3
8
strikeouts
14
147
pitches thrown
208
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Francisco LindorNYM3-3113
Alec BohmPHI2-4111
Luis TorrensNYM2-4201
Juan SotoNYM2-5101
Bo BichetteNYM2-5100
Carson BengeNYM1-3001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Nolan McLean (W)NYM6.020210
Alan Rangel (L)PHI4.07534

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PHI +6
NYM +6
123456789
largest lead: PHI 0 · NYM 6lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYM 44%, PHI 56% · Updated Jul 19

Expected margin
PHI by 0.7
Expected score
PHI 4.7 – 4.0 NYM
Expected total
8.7
MetsThe matchupPhillies
+129Our fair odds−129
4.0Expected runs4.7
−0.09Power rating+0.11
4.1Runs / game4.4
4.7Allowed / game4.4
7.8Hits / game7.9
1.17Home runs / game1.28
3.1Walks drawn / game3.0
41−58Season record55−44
5−5Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYM chance · PHI chance
Our model fair43.6%56.4%
Kalshi55.7%48.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:35 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYMNew York Mets+12944%−12655.7%———
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−12956%+10548.7%———
SpreadPHI by 0.7
NYMNew York Mets+0.7our margin————
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.7
Over8.7our total————
Under8.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Philadelphia Phillies by 0.7 expected
New York Mets by 14 runs: <1%New York Mets by 13 runs: <1%New York Mets by 12 runs: <1%New York Mets by 11 runs: <1%New York Mets by 10 runs: <1%New York Mets by 9 runs: 1%New York Mets by 8 runs: 1%New York Mets by 7 runs: 2%New York Mets by 6 runs: 2%New York Mets by 5 runs: 3%New York Mets by 4 runs: 5%New York Mets by 3 runs: 6%New York Mets by 2 runs: 9%New York Mets by 1 run: 14%Philadelphia Phillies by 1 run: 15%Philadelphia Phillies by 2 runs: 11%Philadelphia Phillies by 3 runs: 8%Philadelphia Phillies by 4 runs: 6%Philadelphia Phillies by 5 runs: 5%Philadelphia Phillies by 6 runs: 4%Philadelphia Phillies by 7 runs: 3%Philadelphia Phillies by 8 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 9 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 10 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 11 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 12 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 13 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 14 runs: <1%
← NYM wins byPHI wins by →
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 2 or more42%
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 3 or more31%
New York Mets wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.7 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.567%
Total over 8.547%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
NYMNolan McLean SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 1.00 ERA, 19 Kstarted
PHIAlan Rangel RP · last 2 starts: 7.1 IP, 3.68 ERA, 9 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYM·PHI
Jul 18 at PHI
last game
Jul 18 vs NYM
0 days
days of rest
0 days
3
games in last 7 days
3
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 99+ games
NYM·PHI
−0.09
rating (0 = average)
+0.11
4.1
runs / game
4.4
4.7
runs allowed / game
4.4
41−58
season record
55−44
21−28
home record
26−22
20−30
away record
29−22
L1
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
5−5
7.8
hits / game
7.9
1.17
home runs / game
1.28
3.1
walks drawn / game
3.0
8.2
batter strikeouts / game
8.8
9.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.8
0.70
errors / game
0.49

Rating Trend

NYM · PHI · 113 days
New York MetsPhiladelphia Phillies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PHI 7−3
Jul 18at PHIPHI 6 − 1
Jul 16at PHINYM 4 − 1
Jun 28at NYMPHI 5 − 4
Jun 27at NYMNYM 6 − 2
Jun 26at NYMPHI 2 − 1
Jun 21at PHIPHI 6 − 2
Jun 20at PHIPHI 15 − 3
Jun 18at PHINYM 6 − 4
Sep 11, 2025at PHIPHI 6 − 4
Sep 10, 2025at PHIPHI 11 − 3

NYM · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Jul 18at PHI1 − 6L
Jul 16at PHI4 − 1W
Jul 12vs BOS2 − 3L
Jul 11vs BOS0 − 4L
Jul 10vs BOS2 − 6L
Jul 9vs KC7 − 3W
Jul 8vs KC6 − 2W
Jul 7vs KC12 − 16L
Jul 6at ATL7 − 6W
Jul 5at ATL10 − 9W

PHI · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Jul 18vs NYM6 − 1W
Jul 16vs NYM1 − 4L
Jul 12at DET5 − 0W
Jul 11at DET4 − 2W
Jul 10at DET2 − 10L
Jul 9at CIN1 − 0W
Jul 8at CIN5 − 11L
Jul 7at CIN4 − 1W
Jul 6at KC1 − 15L
Jul 5at KC2 − 5L