bayesRatings

Nationals at Rockies

MLB · Tuesday, Jul 21 · 7:40 PM CT · Coors Field · Final WSH 7 – COL 8
← MLB / Jul 21

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
WSH2022001007101
COL041011018120
Team box
WSH·COL
10
hits
12
2
home runs
2
2
walks
2
10
strikeouts
6
142
pitches thrown
150
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
CJ AbramsWSH2-3224
Mickey MoniakCOL2-4212
Hunter GoodmanCOL2-5211
Cole CarriggCOL3-5001
James WoodWSH2-5102
Jake McCarthyCOL2-5101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Carson PalmquistWSH1.24412
Clayton Beeter (L)WSH1.01100
Michael LorenzenCOL3.27615
Juan Mejia (W)COL1.00001
Jordan Romano (S)COL1.00002

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
COL +3
WSH +3
123456789
largest lead: COL 2 · WSH 2lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was WSH 58%, COL 42% · Updated Jul 21

Expected margin
WSH by 1.6
Expected score
WSH 6.9 – 5.3 COL
Expected total
12.2
NationalsThe matchupRockies
−140Our fair odds+140
6.9Expected runs5.3
−0.06Power rating−0.46
5.5Runs / game4.8
5.3Allowed / game5.7
8.7Hits / game8.6
1.46Home runs / game1.14
3.5Walks drawn / game3.2
51−50Season record40−62
5−5Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
WSH chance · COL chance
Our model fair58.4%41.6%
Kalshi53.7%50.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
WSHWashington Nationals−14058%−11653.7%———
COLColorado Rockies+14042%−10350.7%———
SpreadWSH by 1.6
WSHWashington Nationals−1.6our margin————
COLColorado Rockies+1.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 12.2
Over12.2our total————
Under12.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Washington Nationals by 1.6 expected
Washington Nationals by 19 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 18 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 17 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 16 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 15 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 14 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 13 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 12 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 11 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 10 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 9 runs: 3%Washington Nationals by 8 runs: 3%Washington Nationals by 7 runs: 4%Washington Nationals by 6 runs: 5%Washington Nationals by 5 runs: 6%Washington Nationals by 4 runs: 6%Washington Nationals by 3 runs: 7%Washington Nationals by 2 runs: 9%Washington Nationals by 1 run: 8%Colorado Rockies by 1 run: 13%Colorado Rockies by 2 runs: 7%Colorado Rockies by 3 runs: 5%Colorado Rockies by 4 runs: 4%Colorado Rockies by 5 runs: 3%Colorado Rockies by 6 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 7 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 8 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 9 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 10 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 11 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 12 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 13 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 14 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 15 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 16 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 17 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 18 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 19 runs: <1%
← WSH wins byCOL wins by →
Washington Nationals wins by 2 or more50%
Washington Nationals wins by 3 or more41%
Colorado Rockies wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run21%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

12.2 expected
2 runs: 1%3 runs: 2%4 runs: 2%5 runs: 5%6 runs: 4%7 runs: 7%8 runs: 6%9 runs: 9%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 7%14 runs: 5%15 runs: 6%16 runs: 4%17 runs: 4%18 runs: 3%19 runs: 3%20 runs: 2%21 runs: 2%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: 1%25 runs: 1%26 runs: 1%27 runs: <1%28 runs: <1%29 runs: <1%30 runs: <1%31 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 10.558%
Total over 12.543%
Total over 14.531%
Total from 11 to 1427%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
WSHCarson Palmquist RP · last 3 starts: 7.1 IP, 7.36 ERA, 10 Kstarted
COLMichael Lorenzen SP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 2.93 ERA, 7 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
WSH·COL
Jul 20 at COL
last game
Jul 20 vs WSH
0 days
days of rest
0 days
4
games in last 7 days
4
5th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 101+ games
WSH·COL
−0.06
rating (0 = average)
−0.46
5.5
runs / game
4.8
5.3
runs allowed / game
5.7
51−50
season record
40−62
20−31
home record
23−28
31−19
away record
17−34
W2
streak
L2
5−5
last 10
3−7
8.7
hits / game
8.6
1.46
home runs / game
1.14
3.5
walks drawn / game
3.2
8.3
batter strikeouts / game
8.6
7.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.0
0.77
errors / game
0.61

Rating Trend

WSH · COL · 115 days
Washington NationalsColorado Rockies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · COL 4−6
Jul 20at COLWSH 7 − 3
Jun 19, 2025at WSHWSH 4 − 3
Jun 18, 2025at WSHCOL 3 − 1
Jun 17, 2025at WSHCOL 10 − 6
Jun 16, 2025at WSHCOL 6 − 4
Apr 20, 2025at COLCOL 3 − 1
Apr 20, 2025at COLWSH 3 − 2
Apr 19, 2025at COLWSH 12 − 11
Aug 22, 2024at WSHWSH 8 − 3
Aug 21, 2024at WSHWSH 6 − 1

WSH · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Jul 20at COL7 − 3W
Jul 19at ATH5 − 2W
Jul 18at ATH1 − 15L
Jul 17at ATH23 − 4W
Jul 12vs NYY3 − 5L
Jul 11vs NYY2 − 4L
Jul 10vs NYY3 − 5L
Jul 8vs HOU8 − 2W
Jul 7vs HOU3 − 6L
Jul 6vs HOU12 − 11W

COL · Last 10

3−7 · streak L2
Jul 20vs WSH3 − 7L
Jul 19vs CIN6 − 9L
Jul 18vs CIN10 − 3W
Jul 17vs CIN2 − 7L
Jul 12at SF1 − 3L
Jul 11at SF2 − 4L
Jul 10at SF4 − 3W
Jul 9at SF2 − 8L
Jul 8at LAD3 − 4L
Jul 7at LAD4 − 3W