bayesRatings

Rockies at Brewers

MLB · Friday, Jul 24 · 3:10 PM CT · American Family Field · Final COL 5 – MIL 2
← MLB / Jul 24

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
COL201100100590
MIL100001000290
Team box
COL·MIL
9
hits
9
0
home runs
2
3
walks
1
8
strikeouts
8
165
pitches thrown
144
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Brice TurangMIL3-4111
Christian YelichMIL1-5111
TJ RumfieldCOL2-2001
Kyle KarrosCOL2-4101
Hunter GoodmanCOL1-2001
Cole CarriggCOL1-4101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Tomoyuki Sugano (W)COL5.16215
Jordan Romano (S)COL1.02001
Shane Drohan (L)MIL6.06526

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIL +3
COL +3
123456789
largest lead: MIL 0 · COL 3lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was COL 30%, MIL 70% · Updated Jul 24

Expected margin
MIL by 2.3
Expected score
MIL 5.8 – 3.6 COL
Expected total
9.4
RockiesThe matchupBrewers
+233Our fair odds−233
3.6Expected runs5.8
−0.45Power rating+0.35
4.8Runs / game5.0
5.7Allowed / game3.7
8.6Hits / game8.6
1.13Home runs / game0.92
3.2Walks drawn / game4.2
41−63Season record64−38
3−7Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
COL chance · MIL chance
Our model fair30.0%70.0%
Kalshi31.5%71.5%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
COLColorado Rockies+23330%+21831.5%———
MILMilwaukee Brewers−23370%−25171.5%———
SpreadMIL by 2.3
COLColorado Rockies+2.3our margin————
MILMilwaukee Brewers−2.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.4
Over9.4our total————
Under9.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Milwaukee Brewers by 2.3 expected
Colorado Rockies by 17 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 16 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 15 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 14 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 13 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 12 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 11 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 10 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 9 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 8 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 7 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 6 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 5 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 4 runs: 3%Colorado Rockies by 3 runs: 4%Colorado Rockies by 2 runs: 7%Colorado Rockies by 1 run: 10%Milwaukee Brewers by 1 run: 15%Milwaukee Brewers by 2 runs: 11%Milwaukee Brewers by 3 runs: 9%Milwaukee Brewers by 4 runs: 8%Milwaukee Brewers by 5 runs: 6%Milwaukee Brewers by 6 runs: 5%Milwaukee Brewers by 7 runs: 4%Milwaukee Brewers by 8 runs: 3%Milwaukee Brewers by 9 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 10 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 11 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 12 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 13 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 14 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 15 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 16 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 17 runs: <1%
← COL wins byMIL wins by →
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 2 or more55%
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 3 or more45%
Colorado Rockies wins by 2 or more20%
Decided by one run25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.4 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.561%
Total over 9.543%
Total over 11.528%
Total from 8 to 1132%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
COLTomoyuki Sugano SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 5.71 ERA, 10 Kstarted
MILShane Drohan SP · last 3 starts: 18.1 IP, 3.44 ERA, 17 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
COL·MIL
Jul 22 vs WSH
last game
Jul 22 vs NYM
1 day
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
7th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 102+ games
COL·MIL
−0.45
rating (0 = average)
+0.35
4.8
runs / game
5.0
5.7
runs allowed / game
3.7
41−63
season record
64−38
24−29
home record
34−19
17−34
away record
30−19
L1
streak
W1
3−7
last 10
6−4
8.6
hits / game
8.6
1.13
home runs / game
0.92
3.2
walks drawn / game
4.2
8.6
batter strikeouts / game
8.2
7.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.8
0.62
errors / game
0.41

Rating Trend

COL · MIL · 118 days
Colorado RockiesMilwaukee Brewers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIL 7−3
Jun 7at COLMIL 12 − 4
Jun 6at COLMIL 7 − 1
Jun 5at COLMIL 9 − 7
Jun 29, 2025at MILCOL 4 − 3
Jun 28, 2025at MILMIL 5 − 0
Jun 27, 2025at MILMIL 10 − 6
Apr 10, 2025at COLCOL 7 − 2
Apr 9, 2025at COLMIL 17 − 2
Apr 8, 2025at COLMIL 7 − 1
Sep 8, 2024at MILCOL 4 − 1

COL · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Jul 22vs WSH0 − 8L
Jul 21vs WSH8 − 7W
Jul 20vs WSH3 − 7L
Jul 19vs CIN6 − 9L
Jul 18vs CIN10 − 3W
Jul 17vs CIN2 − 7L
Jul 12at SF1 − 3L
Jul 11at SF2 − 4L
Jul 10at SF4 − 3W
Jul 9at SF2 − 8L

MIL · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Jul 22vs NYM4 − 3W
Jul 21vs NYM0 − 4L
Jul 20vs NYM8 − 3W
Jul 19vs MIA3 − 1W
Jul 18vs MIA8 − 6W
Jul 17vs MIA2 − 1W
Jul 12at PIT5 − 14L
Jul 11at PIT2 − 3L
Jul 11at PIT6 − 7L
Jul 9at STL8 − 4W