bayesRatings

Rockies at Padres

MLB · Tuesday, Jul 28 · 8:40 PM CT · Petco Park · Final COL 7 – SD 8
← MLB / Jul 28

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
COL0040002107104
SD0200112118161
Team box
COL·SD
10
hits
16
2
home runs
0
3
walks
6
11
strikeouts
5
195
pitches thrown
161
4
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Fernando Tatis Jr.SD5-5102
Mickey MoniakCOL2-5113
Manny MachadoSD3-4101
Jackson MerrillSD3-5101
Willi CastroCOL1-2211
Ezequiel TovarCOL1-3102
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Michael LorenzenCOL4.08312
Jimmy Herget (L)COL0.11120
Michael KingSD6.06416
Mason Miller (W)SD1.00003

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SD +3
COL +3
123456789
largest lead: SD 2 · COL 2lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was COL 37%, SD 63% · Updated Jul 28

Expected margin
SD by 1.5
Expected score
SD 5.3 – 3.8 COL
Expected total
9.1
RockiesThe matchupPadres
+172Our fair odds−172
3.8Expected runs5.3
−0.45Power rating+0.03
4.7Runs / game4.2
5.8Allowed / game4.4
8.6Hits / game7.6
1.12Home runs / game1.11
3.1Walks drawn / game3.4
42−65Season record53−53
3−7Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
COL chance · SD chance
Our model fair36.7%63.3%
Kalshi34.5%69.5%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
COLColorado Rockies+17237%+18934.5%———
SDSan Diego Padres−17263%−22869.5%———
SpreadSD by 1.5
COLColorado Rockies+1.5our margin————
SDSan Diego Padres−1.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.1
Over9.1our total————
Under9.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

San Diego Padres by 1.5 expected
Colorado Rockies by 15 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 14 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 13 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 12 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 11 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 10 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 9 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 8 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 7 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 6 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 5 runs: 3%Colorado Rockies by 4 runs: 4%Colorado Rockies by 3 runs: 5%Colorado Rockies by 2 runs: 8%Colorado Rockies by 1 run: 12%San Diego Padres by 1 run: 15%San Diego Padres by 2 runs: 11%San Diego Padres by 3 runs: 8%San Diego Padres by 4 runs: 7%San Diego Padres by 5 runs: 6%San Diego Padres by 6 runs: 4%San Diego Padres by 7 runs: 3%San Diego Padres by 8 runs: 3%San Diego Padres by 9 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 10 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 11 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 12 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 13 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 14 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 15 runs: <1%
← COL wins bySD wins by →
San Diego Padres wins by 2 or more49%
San Diego Padres wins by 3 or more38%
Colorado Rockies wins by 2 or more25%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.1 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.558%
Total over 9.540%
Total over 11.526%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
COLMichael Lorenzen SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 5.52 ERA, 11 Kstarted
SDMichael King SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 1.59 ERA, 15 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
COL·SD
Jul 26 at MIL
last game
Jul 26 at MIA
1 day
days of rest
1 day
5
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 106+ games
COL·SD
−0.45
rating (0 = average)
+0.03
4.7
runs / game
4.2
5.8
runs allowed / game
4.4
42−65
season record
53−53
24−29
home record
27−24
18−36
away record
26−29
L2
streak
W3
3−7
last 10
5−5
8.6
hits / game
7.6
1.12
home runs / game
1.11
3.1
walks drawn / game
3.4
8.7
batter strikeouts / game
8.3
7.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.1
0.63
errors / game
0.40

Rating Trend

COL · SD · 122 days
Colorado RockiesSan Diego Padres
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SD 8−2
Apr 23at COLSD 10 − 8
Apr 22at COLCOL 8 − 3
Apr 21at COLSD 1 − 0
Apr 12at SDSD 7 − 2
Apr 11at SDSD 9 − 5
Apr 10at SDSD 5 − 2
Apr 9at SDSD 7 − 3
Sep 14, 2025at SDSD 9 − 6
Sep 13, 2025at SDSD 11 − 3
Sep 12, 2025at SDCOL 4 − 2

COL · Last 10

3−7 · streak L2
Jul 26at MIL2 − 11L
Jul 25at MIL5 − 8L
Jul 24at MIL5 − 2W
Jul 22vs WSH0 − 8L
Jul 21vs WSH8 − 7W
Jul 20vs WSH3 − 7L
Jul 19vs CIN6 − 9L
Jul 18vs CIN10 − 3W
Jul 17vs CIN2 − 7L
Jul 12at SF1 − 3L

SD · Last 10

5−5 · streak W3
Jul 26at MIA5 − 3W
Jul 25at MIA7 − 2W
Jul 24at MIA4 − 2W
Jul 23at ATL5 − 6L
Jul 22at ATL6 − 7L
Jul 21at ATL8 − 3W
Jul 20at ATL2 − 3L
Jul 19at KC19 − 2W
Jul 18at KC1 − 6L
Jul 17at KC6 − 7L