bayesRatings

Angels at Giants

MLB · Friday, Jul 24 · 9:15 PM CT · Oracle Park · Final LAA 6 – SF 7
← MLB / Jul 24

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team12345678910THE
LAA1000300200691
SF2030001001790
Team box
LAA·SF
9
hits
9
1
home runs
2
5
walks
5
10
strikeouts
8
179
pitches thrown
161
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Rafael DeversSF2-4213
Vaughn GrissomLAA2-5112
Casey SchmittSF1-4113
Tyler HeinemanLAA1-2102
Nolan SchanuelLAA2-5001
Luis ArraezSF3-5000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Grayson RodriguezLAA4.06523
Chase Silseth (L)LAA0.12010
Logan WebbSF6.06424
Caleb Kilian (W)SF1.01001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SF +4
LAA +4
12345678910
largest lead: SF 4 · LAA 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAA 46%, SF 54% · Updated Jul 24

Expected margin
SF by 0.6
Expected score
SF 4.6 – 4.0 LAA
Expected total
8.7
AngelsThe matchupGiants
+119Our fair odds−119
4.0Expected runs4.6
−0.23Power rating−0.11
4.3Runs / game4.1
4.9Allowed / game4.7
8.0Hits / game8.6
1.09Home runs / game1.12
3.2Walks drawn / game2.5
41−62Season record42−60
4−6Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAA chance · SF chance
Our model fair45.6%54.4%
Kalshi42.7%61.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 9:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LAALos Angeles Angels+11946%+13442.7%———
SFSan Francisco Giants−11954%−16161.7%———
SpreadSF by 0.6
LAALos Angeles Angels+0.6our margin————
SFSan Francisco Giants−0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.7
Over8.7our total————
Under8.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

San Francisco Giants by 0.6 expected
Los Angeles Angels by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 11 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 10 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 8 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 7 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 6 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 5 runs: 3%Los Angeles Angels by 4 runs: 5%Los Angeles Angels by 3 runs: 6%Los Angeles Angels by 2 runs: 9%Los Angeles Angels by 1 run: 15%San Francisco Giants by 1 run: 13%San Francisco Giants by 2 runs: 10%San Francisco Giants by 3 runs: 8%San Francisco Giants by 4 runs: 6%San Francisco Giants by 5 runs: 5%San Francisco Giants by 6 runs: 4%San Francisco Giants by 7 runs: 3%San Francisco Giants by 8 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 9 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 10 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 11 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 12 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 13 runs: <1%
← LAA wins bySF wins by →
San Francisco Giants wins by 2 or more41%
San Francisco Giants wins by 3 or more31%
Los Angeles Angels wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.7 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.567%
Total over 8.547%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
LAAGrayson Rodriguez SP · last 3 starts: 11.2 IP, 8.49 ERA, 4 Kstarted
SFLogan Webb SP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 8.10 ERA, 9 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAA·SF
Jul 22 vs STL
last game
Jul 22 at KC
1 day
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 102+ games
LAA·SF
−0.23
rating (0 = average)
−0.11
4.3
runs / game
4.1
4.9
runs allowed / game
4.7
41−62
season record
42−60
24−28
home record
22−25
17−34
away record
20−35
L1
streak
L5
4−6
last 10
4−6
8.0
hits / game
8.6
1.09
home runs / game
1.12
3.2
walks drawn / game
2.5
9.5
batter strikeouts / game
7.9
8.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.6
0.57
errors / game
0.68

Rating Trend

LAA · SF · 118 days
Los Angeles AngelsSan Francisco Giants
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SF 4−6
Apr 20, 2025at LAALAA 5 − 4
Apr 19, 2025at LAASF 3 − 2
Apr 18, 2025at LAALAA 2 − 0
Jun 16, 2024at SFSF 13 − 6
Jun 15, 2024at SFLAA 4 − 3
Jun 14, 2024at SFLAA 8 − 6
Aug 9, 2023at LAALAA 4 − 1
Aug 8, 2023at LAALAA 7 − 5
Aug 7, 2023at LAASF 8 − 3
Jun 23, 2021at LAASF 9 − 3

LAA · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Jul 22vs STL0 − 1L
Jul 21vs STL5 − 1W
Jul 20vs STL3 − 2W
Jul 19vs DET3 − 2W
Jul 18vs DET0 − 7L
Jul 17vs DET1 − 2L
Jul 12at MIN2 − 4L
Jul 11at MIN3 − 5L
Jul 10at MIN4 − 3W
Jul 9at TEX6 − 7L

SF · Last 10

4−6 · streak L5
Jul 22at KC4 − 5L
Jul 21at KC2 − 3L
Jul 20at KC3 − 4L
Jul 19at SEA3 − 6L
Jul 18at SEA3 − 4L
Jul 17at SEA7 − 0W
Jul 12vs COL3 − 1W
Jul 11vs COL4 − 2W
Jul 10vs COL3 − 4L
Jul 9vs COL8 − 2W