bayesRatings

Cardinals at Angels

MLB · Tuesday, Jul 21 · 8:38 PM CT · Angel Stadium · Final STL 1 – LAA 5
← MLB / Jul 21

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
STL000010000170
LAA500000005100
Team box
STL·LAA
7
hits
10
0
home runs
1
1
walks
4
11
strikeouts
9
142
pitches thrown
146
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jo AdellLAA2-4112
Jorge SolerLAA1-4102
Alec BurlesonSTL3-4000
Jose SiriLAA2-4000
Vaughn GrissomLAA1-4101
Zach NetoLAA2-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Matthew Liberatore (L)STL5.19527
Walbert Urena (W)LAA6.06115

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAA +5
STL +5
123456789
largest lead: LAA 5 · STL 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was STL 55%, LAA 45% · Updated Jul 21

Expected margin
STL by 0.5
Expected score
STL 4.8 – 4.3 LAA
Expected total
9.2
CardinalsThe matchupAngels
−120Our fair odds+120
4.8Expected runs4.3
+0.00Power rating−0.24
4.5Runs / game4.3
4.5Allowed / game4.9
8.1Hits / game8.0
1.10Home runs / game1.10
3.2Walks drawn / game3.2
51−48Season record40−61
4−6Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
STL chance · LAA chance
Our model fair54.5%45.5%
Kalshi49.7%55.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:38 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
STLSt. Louis Cardinals−12055%+10149.7%———
LAALos Angeles Angels+12045%−12655.7%———
SpreadSTL by 0.5
STLSt. Louis Cardinals−0.5our margin————
LAALos Angeles Angels+0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.2
Over9.2our total————
Under9.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

St. Louis Cardinals by 0.5 expected
St. Louis Cardinals by 14 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 13 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 12 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 11 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 10 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 9 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 8 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 7 runs: 3%St. Louis Cardinals by 6 runs: 4%St. Louis Cardinals by 5 runs: 5%St. Louis Cardinals by 4 runs: 6%St. Louis Cardinals by 3 runs: 8%St. Louis Cardinals by 2 runs: 10%St. Louis Cardinals by 1 run: 14%Los Angeles Angels by 1 run: 13%Los Angeles Angels by 2 runs: 9%Los Angeles Angels by 3 runs: 6%Los Angeles Angels by 4 runs: 5%Los Angeles Angels by 5 runs: 4%Los Angeles Angels by 6 runs: 3%Los Angeles Angels by 7 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 8 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 11 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 14 runs: <1%
← STL wins byLAA wins by →
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 2 or more40%
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 3 or more30%
Los Angeles Angels wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.2 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.527%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
STLMatthew Liberatore SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 2.25 ERA, 18 Kstarted
LAAWalbert Urena SP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 5.14 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
STL·LAA
Jul 20 at LAA
last game
Jul 20 vs STL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
4
games in last 7 days
4
5th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 99+ games
STL·LAA
+0.00
rating (0 = average)
−0.24
4.5
runs / game
4.3
4.5
runs allowed / game
4.9
51−48
season record
40−61
26−26
home record
23−27
25−22
away record
17−34
L3
streak
W2
4−6
last 10
4−6
8.1
hits / game
8.0
1.10
home runs / game
1.10
3.2
walks drawn / game
3.2
7.7
batter strikeouts / game
9.5
7.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.8
0.46
errors / game
0.58

Rating Trend

STL · LAA · 115 days
St. Louis CardinalsLos Angeles Angels
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAA 7−3
Jul 20at LAALAA 3 − 2
Apr 2, 2025at STLSTL 12 − 5
Apr 1, 2025at STLLAA 9 − 7
Mar 31, 2025at STLLAA 5 − 4
May 15, 2024at LAALAA 7 − 2
May 14, 2024at LAASTL 7 − 6
May 13, 2024at LAASTL 10 − 5
May 4, 2023at STLLAA 11 − 7
May 3, 2023at STLLAA 6 − 4
May 2, 2023at STLLAA 5 − 1

STL · Last 10

4−6 · streak L3
Jul 20at LAA2 − 3L
Jul 19at ARI7 − 8L
Jul 18at ARI3 − 5L
Jul 17at ARI5 − 4W
Jul 12vs ATL3 − 4L
Jul 11vs ATL4 − 1W
Jul 10vs ATL2 − 1W
Jul 9vs MIL4 − 8L
Jul 8vs MIL5 − 1W
Jul 7vs MIL2 − 10L

LAA · Last 10

4−6 · streak W2
Jul 20vs STL3 − 2W
Jul 19vs DET3 − 2W
Jul 18vs DET0 − 7L
Jul 17vs DET1 − 2L
Jul 12at MIN2 − 4L
Jul 11at MIN3 − 5L
Jul 10at MIN4 − 3W
Jul 9at TEX6 − 7L
Jul 8at TEX13 − 1W
Jul 7at TEX3 − 8L