bayesRatings

Cardinals at Angels

MLB · Monday, Jul 20 · 9:00 PM CT · Angel Stadium · Final STL 2 – LAA 3
← MLB / Jul 20

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
STL020000000240
LAA001000002360
Team box
STL·LAA
4
hits
6
0
home runs
1
2
walks
2
11
strikeouts
7
143
pitches thrown
129
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jo AdellLAA2-3112
Nathan ChurchSTL2-3001
Vaughn GrissomLAA1-4001
Nolan SchanuelLAA2-3000
Zach NetoLAA1-4000
Lars NootbaarSTL1-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Kyle LeahySTL6.03104
Riley O'Brien (L)STL0.12211
Jose SorianoLAA7.04217
Jose Fermin (W)LAA1.00012

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAA +3
STL +3
123456789
largest lead: LAA 1 · STL 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was STL 55%, LAA 45% · Updated Jul 20

Expected margin
STL by 0.6
Expected score
STL 5.0 – 4.4 LAA
Expected total
9.4
CardinalsThe matchupAngels
−123Our fair odds+123
5.0Expected runs4.4
+0.01Power rating−0.25
4.5Runs / game4.3
4.5Allowed / game5.0
8.1Hits / game8.1
1.11Home runs / game1.10
3.3Walks drawn / game3.2
51−47Season record39−61
4−6Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
STL chance · LAA chance
Our model fair55.1%44.9%
Kalshi52.7%51.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 9:00 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
STLSt. Louis Cardinals−12355%−11252.7%———
LAALos Angeles Angels+12345%−10751.8%———
SpreadSTL by 0.6
STLSt. Louis Cardinals−0.6our margin————
LAALos Angeles Angels+0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.4
Over9.4our total————
Under9.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

St. Louis Cardinals by 0.6 expected
St. Louis Cardinals by 14 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 13 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 12 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 11 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 10 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 9 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 8 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 7 runs: 3%St. Louis Cardinals by 6 runs: 4%St. Louis Cardinals by 5 runs: 5%St. Louis Cardinals by 4 runs: 6%St. Louis Cardinals by 3 runs: 8%St. Louis Cardinals by 2 runs: 10%St. Louis Cardinals by 1 run: 14%Los Angeles Angels by 1 run: 13%Los Angeles Angels by 2 runs: 9%Los Angeles Angels by 3 runs: 6%Los Angeles Angels by 4 runs: 5%Los Angeles Angels by 5 runs: 4%Los Angeles Angels by 6 runs: 3%Los Angeles Angels by 7 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 8 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 11 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 14 runs: <1%
← STL wins byLAA wins by →
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 2 or more41%
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 3 or more31%
Los Angeles Angels wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.4 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.561%
Total over 9.543%
Total over 11.528%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
STLKyle Leahy SP · last 3 starts: 13.0 IP, 0.69 ERA, 13 Kstarted
LAAJose Soriano SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 4.50 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
STL·LAA
Jul 19 at ARI
last game
Jul 19 vs DET
0 days
days of rest
0 days
3
games in last 7 days
3
4th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 98+ games
STL·LAA
+0.01
rating (0 = average)
−0.25
4.5
runs / game
4.3
4.5
runs allowed / game
5.0
51−47
season record
39−61
26−26
home record
22−27
25−21
away record
17−34
L2
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
3−7
8.1
hits / game
8.1
1.11
home runs / game
1.10
3.3
walks drawn / game
3.2
7.7
batter strikeouts / game
9.5
7.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.8
0.47
errors / game
0.59

Rating Trend

STL · LAA · 114 days
St. Louis CardinalsLos Angeles Angels
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · LAA 6−3
Apr 2, 2025at STLSTL 12 − 5
Apr 1, 2025at STLLAA 9 − 7
Mar 31, 2025at STLLAA 5 − 4
May 15, 2024at LAALAA 7 − 2
May 14, 2024at LAASTL 7 − 6
May 13, 2024at LAASTL 10 − 5
May 4, 2023at STLLAA 11 − 7
May 3, 2023at STLLAA 6 − 4
May 2, 2023at STLLAA 5 − 1

STL · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Jul 19at ARI7 − 8L
Jul 18at ARI3 − 5L
Jul 17at ARI5 − 4W
Jul 12vs ATL3 − 4L
Jul 11vs ATL4 − 1W
Jul 10vs ATL2 − 1W
Jul 9vs MIL4 − 8L
Jul 8vs MIL5 − 1W
Jul 7vs MIL2 − 10L
Jul 7vs MIL3 − 4L

LAA · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Jul 19vs DET3 − 2W
Jul 18vs DET0 − 7L
Jul 17vs DET1 − 2L
Jul 12at MIN2 − 4L
Jul 11at MIN3 − 5L
Jul 10at MIN4 − 3W
Jul 9at TEX6 − 7L
Jul 8at TEX13 − 1W
Jul 7at TEX3 − 8L
Jul 5vs BOS5 − 7L