bayesRatings

Angels at Twins

MLB · Saturday, Jul 11 · 1:10 PM CT · Target Field · Final LAA 3 – MIN 5
← MLB / Jul 11

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
LAA0020001003100
MIN03000020590
Team box
LAA·MIN
10
hits
9
0
home runs
1
4
walks
4
9
strikeouts
4
131
pitches thrown
160
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Royce LewisMIN2-4212
Jorge SolerLAA1-3002
Nolan SchanuelLAA2-4001
Mike TroutLAA2-5100
Wade MecklerLAA2-4000
Zach NetoLAA2-5200
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Ryan JohnsonLAA5.03331
Mitch Farris (L)LAA2.06202
Joe RyanMIN6.06226
Tommy Nance (W)MIN1.02102
Yoendrys Gomez (S)MIN1.01011

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIN +3
LAA +3
123456789
largest lead: MIN 3 · LAA 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAA 45%, MIN 55% · Updated Jul 11

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
MIN 5.2 – 4.9 LAA
Expected total
10.1
AngelsThe matchupTwins
+122Our fair odds−122
4.9Expected runs5.2
−0.22Power rating−0.08
4.5Runs / game4.9
5.0Allowed / game5.1
8.1Hits / game8.4
1.14Home runs / game1.24
3.2Walks drawn / game3.3
38−57Season record46−49
2−8Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAA chance · MIN chance
Our model fair45.1%54.9%
Kalshi39.6%64.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 1:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LAALos Angeles Angels+12245%+15239.6%———
MINMinnesota Twins−12255%−18364.6%———
Spreadabout even
LAALos Angeles Angels+0.3our margin————
MINMinnesota Twins−0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 10.1
Over10.1our total————
Under10.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Los Angeles Angels by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 11 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 8 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 7 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 6 runs: 3%Los Angeles Angels by 5 runs: 4%Los Angeles Angels by 4 runs: 5%Los Angeles Angels by 3 runs: 7%Los Angeles Angels by 2 runs: 9%Los Angeles Angels by 1 run: 10%Minnesota Twins by 1 run: 16%Minnesota Twins by 2 runs: 9%Minnesota Twins by 3 runs: 7%Minnesota Twins by 4 runs: 6%Minnesota Twins by 5 runs: 5%Minnesota Twins by 6 runs: 3%Minnesota Twins by 7 runs: 3%Minnesota Twins by 8 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 9 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 10 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 11 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 12 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 13 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 14 runs: <1%
← LAA wins byMIN wins by →
Minnesota Twins wins by 2 or more39%
Minnesota Twins wins by 3 or more30%
Los Angeles Angels wins by 2 or more35%
Decided by one run25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

10.1 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 4%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 8%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 10%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 8.559%
Total over 10.542%
Total over 12.528%
Total from 9 to 1231%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
LAARyan Johnson SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 1.80 ERA, 17 Kstarted
MINJoe Ryan SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 2.12 ERA, 23 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAA·MIN
Jul 10 at MIN
last game
Jul 10 vs LAA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 95+ games
LAA·MIN
−0.22
rating (0 = average)
−0.08
4.5
runs / game
4.9
5.0
runs allowed / game
5.1
38−57
season record
46−49
21−25
home record
24−25
17−32
away record
22−24
W1
streak
L2
2−8
last 10
6−4
8.1
hits / game
8.4
1.14
home runs / game
1.24
3.2
walks drawn / game
3.3
9.5
batter strikeouts / game
8.3
8.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.3
0.61
errors / game
0.54

Rating Trend

LAA · MIN · 108 days
Los Angeles AngelsMinnesota Twins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIN 6−4
Jul 10at MINLAA 4 − 3
Sep 10, 2025at LAALAA 4 − 3
Sep 9, 2025at LAALAA 12 − 2
Sep 8, 2025at LAAMIN 12 − 3
Apr 27, 2025at MINMIN 5 − 0
Apr 26, 2025at MINMIN 5 − 1
Apr 25, 2025at MINMIN 11 − 4
Sep 11, 2024at MINMIN 6 − 4
Sep 10, 2024at MINMIN 10 − 5
Sep 9, 2024at MINLAA 6 − 2

LAA · Last 10

2−8 · streak W1
Jul 10at MIN4 − 3W
Jul 9at TEX6 − 7L
Jul 8at TEX13 − 1W
Jul 7at TEX3 − 8L
Jul 5vs BOS5 − 7L
Jul 4vs BOS1 − 8L
Jul 3vs BOS2 − 5L
Jul 2at SEA0 − 1L
Jun 30at SEA3 − 8L
Jun 29at SEA2 − 6L

MIN · Last 10

6−4 · streak L2
Jul 10vs LAA3 − 4L
Jul 9vs CLE2 − 5L
Jul 8vs CLE6 − 5W
Jul 7vs CLE3 − 1W
Jul 5at NYY6 − 1W
Jul 4at NYY11 − 4W
Jul 3at NYY2 − 5L
Jul 1at HOU8 − 3W
Jun 30at HOU4 − 6L
Jun 29at HOU5 − 4W