bayesRatings

Tigers at Angels

MLB · Sunday, Jul 19 · 3:07 PM CT · Angel Stadium · Final DET 2 – LAA 3
← MLB / Jul 19

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
DET100000001240
LAA01001100390
Team box
DET·LAA
4
hits
9
2
home runs
0
3
walks
5
7
strikeouts
10
165
pitches thrown
139
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Riley GreeneDET1-3111
Kevin McGonigleDET1-3111
Oswald PerazaLAA2-4101
Nolan SchanuelLAA3-5000
Vaughn GrissomLAA2-4100
Zach NetoLAA1-4101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Casey MizeDET3.15115
Drew Anderson (L)DET1.11131
Ryan Johnson (W)LAA5.02135
Ryan Zeferjahn (S)LAA1.01100

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAA +3
DET +3
123456789
largest lead: LAA 2 · DET 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DET 56%, LAA 44% · Updated Jul 19

Expected margin
DET by 0.9
Expected score
DET 5.0 – 4.1 LAA
Expected total
9.1
TigersThe matchupAngels
−126Our fair odds+126
5.0Expected runs4.1
+0.03Power rating−0.26
4.2Runs / game4.4
3.9Allowed / game5.0
7.8Hits / game8.1
1.19Home runs / game1.11
3.5Walks drawn / game3.2
46−52Season record38−61
8−2Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DET chance · LAA chance
Our model fair55.8%44.2%
Kalshi59.7%44.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:07 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DETDetroit Tigers−12656%−14859.7%———
LAALos Angeles Angels+12644%+12444.7%———
SpreadDET by 0.9
DETDetroit Tigers−0.9our margin————
LAALos Angeles Angels+0.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.1
Over9.1our total————
Under9.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Detroit Tigers by 0.9 expected
Detroit Tigers by 14 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 13 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 12 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 11 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 10 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 9 runs: 2%Detroit Tigers by 8 runs: 2%Detroit Tigers by 7 runs: 3%Detroit Tigers by 6 runs: 4%Detroit Tigers by 5 runs: 5%Detroit Tigers by 4 runs: 6%Detroit Tigers by 3 runs: 8%Detroit Tigers by 2 runs: 10%Detroit Tigers by 1 run: 12%Los Angeles Angels by 1 run: 15%Los Angeles Angels by 2 runs: 9%Los Angeles Angels by 3 runs: 6%Los Angeles Angels by 4 runs: 4%Los Angeles Angels by 5 runs: 3%Los Angeles Angels by 6 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 7 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 8 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 10 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 11 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 14 runs: <1%
← DET wins byLAA wins by →
Detroit Tigers wins by 2 or more44%
Detroit Tigers wins by 3 or more34%
Los Angeles Angels wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.1 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.526%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
DETCasey Mize SP · last 3 starts: 19.1 IP, 2.33 ERA, 19 Kstarted
LAARyan Johnson SP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 3.86 ERA, 10 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DET·LAA
Jul 18 at LAA
last game
Jul 18 vs DET
0 days
days of rest
0 days
3
games in last 7 days
3
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 98+ games
DET·LAA
+0.03
rating (0 = average)
−0.26
4.2
runs / game
4.4
3.9
runs allowed / game
5.0
46−52
season record
38−61
27−23
home record
21−27
19−29
away record
17−34
W2
streak
L4
8−2
last 10
2−8
7.8
hits / game
8.1
1.19
home runs / game
1.11
3.5
walks drawn / game
3.2
8.7
batter strikeouts / game
9.5
8.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.8
0.45
errors / game
0.60

Rating Trend

DET · LAA · 113 days
Detroit TigersLos Angeles Angels
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAA 4−6
Jul 18at LAADET 7 − 0
Jul 17at LAADET 2 − 1
May 28at DETLAA 7 − 1
May 27at DETDET 4 − 0
May 26at DETLAA 10 − 6
Aug 10, 2025at DETDET 9 − 5
Aug 9, 2025at DETLAA 7 − 4
Aug 8, 2025at DETDET 6 − 5
May 4, 2025at LAADET 13 − 1
May 3, 2025at LAALAA 5 − 2

DET · Last 10

8−2 · streak W2
Jul 18at LAA7 − 0W
Jul 17at LAA2 − 1W
Jul 12vs PHI0 − 5L
Jul 11vs PHI2 − 4L
Jul 10vs PHI10 − 2W
Jul 9vs ATH4 − 1W
Jul 8vs ATH6 − 1W
Jul 7vs ATH6 − 2W
Jul 5at TEX6 − 3W
Jul 4at TEX3 − 0W

LAA · Last 10

2−8 · streak L4
Jul 18vs DET0 − 7L
Jul 17vs DET1 − 2L
Jul 12at MIN2 − 4L
Jul 11at MIN3 − 5L
Jul 10at MIN4 − 3W
Jul 9at TEX6 − 7L
Jul 8at TEX13 − 1W
Jul 7at TEX3 − 8L
Jul 5vs BOS5 − 7L
Jul 4vs BOS1 − 8L